Author: Li Yunfei **Original
2024 is critical!If the dollar harvest fails, will the United States engage in sabotage?After all, Lao Mei still has two killer features in his hands, that is, the financial settlement system and the shipping checkpoint.
We all know that since the beginning of 2022, the US dollar has experienced several rounds of interest rate hikes. It's not so much about controlling inflation as it is about harvesting the wealth of other countries.
Because in the past, whenever the U.S. economy encountered a crisis, the U.S. always first provoked other countries to make the international economy unstable, and then let the wealth of other countries flow back smoothly through the U.S. dollar interest rate hike, and finally it was the wealth of other countries that backed the United States.
From the lost 30 years in Japan, to the Asian financial crisis in 1997, to the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2008. It can be said that the size of the economy of the United States today is all piled up by the wealth of other countries.
But today's situation is completely different. In this round of US interest rate hikes, it can be said that it did not meet the harvest expectations of the United States. Because the world's major economic powers have not fallen into a significant recession because of the dollar's interest rate hike.
The fundamental reason is that the process of global de-dollarization is accelerating, which makes the perfect closed-loop financial harvesting system from oil to dollars to US bonds in the United States ineffective.
In other words, the dollar is about to usher in an interest rate cut in 2024. However, this interest rate cut is only to prevent the US economy from a recession too quickly, but it still does not solve the internal problems of the United States. That is, who will pay for the huge amount of debt caused by the United States in the past few years?Because the United States has not met the harvest forecast, this will always be a mine, and it may erupt at any time.
So will the United States use the ultimate means to sabotage or restrict the economic development of other countries next year?Because he walked slowly, he tried to find a way to slow down his country, which is Lao Mei's style of doing things.
In addition to the soft harvesting tool of the US dollar, Lao Mei now has two other powerful hegemonic tools in its hands.
One is the financial settlement system SWIFT, which can be said to be the world's leading channel. If the United States restricts the access of certain countries to use this channel, it will be more efficient than harvesting dollars to put other countries in economic difficulties. Wasn't Russia a good example of this before?
The second is to set up cards for important maritime gates. The United States is now one of the largest shipping countries in the world, and if it is united with the European Union, it can be said that most of the world's important shipping ports are controlled by the United States and Western countries.
In addition, sea freight accounts for the vast majority of the world's goods**, from raw materials to finished products, from bulk commodities to luxury goods, all need to rely on sea freight to complete.
If the United States manipulates the shipping market through subsidies or wars, then this will lead to the increase of global shipping, and the goods of various countries will lose their competitive advantage in exports. For example, the United States can also set up cards in some specific ports to make it impossible for ships of other shipping companies to berth, which will also be a fatal blow to the export of goods from other countries.
Therefore, for a country like the United States that backtracks, we also have to guard against it!
However, with the launch of China's cross-border payment system CIPS, as well as the internationalization of digital yuan, as well as the implementation of China's "Belt and Road" initiative, it can be said that China has long been prepared for prevention.
Author: Li Yunfei, founder of a large Internet company, CEO of a large food chain enterprise, engaged in the Internet and physical chain industry for 20 years, has been Sohu.com, Netease Finance, Tencent, Phoenix.com, Zhongxun.com, and other well-known ** platforms have been featured in succession, good at financial knowledge analysis, entrepreneurial guidance!100 help plan