No, with the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Israeli-Palestinian war, and more recently, the Iranian-backed Houthi war, the U.S. economy is getting better.
Specifically, the Dow Jones index has hit a new high for the fifth consecutive trading day, with a gain of 07%, NASDAQ Composite**07%, S&P 500**06%。
Correspondingly, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note edged slightly to 3 on Tuesday921%, the lowest level since July 26.
If the yield of US Treasury bonds is **, it means that the global capital market will be gained"Wheez".- Liquidity, except for a certain a.
In addition, all stocks in the S&P 500 index appeared**, indicating optimistic expectations for the US economy.
Why is the U.S. economy optimistic?
On the one hand, as the conflict blossoms in many points and the impact deepens day by day, in the process, the United States, as the country with the highest proven oil and gas reserves in the world, is reshaping the world's oil and gas pattern.
The corresponding international oil majors, U.S. refiners, shale drillers and tanker operators all received significant gains.
On the other hand, as European and American countries have not loosened their restrictions on photovoltaic and new energy here, this has caused the share prices of capital-intensive renewable energy companies to continue the rally promoted by the Federal Reserve.
Specifically, the share price of Enphase Energy, a solar and battery system provider, is 91%, Solaredge Technologies shares**94%, First Solar share price**4%.
It should be noted that the highly regarded AI, chips, and biopharmaceuticals have recently appeared"Fever".Status, e.g. Nvidia stock price**09%。
That's probably the case in the U.S. market at the momentHot spots rotate, but the more "hit" the stronger, in the process of building a new ** chain, is reshaping the energy pattern.
It is foreseeable that the influence of the Middle East and Russia will be weak, which also provides us with a "low oil and gas" environment with a high probability.
But what are the implications in the process?
I think:1Our photovoltaic and new energy industries will continue to be under pressure
2.Oil and gas companies that have signed ** agreements with the Middle East and Russia will continue to be under pressure;
3.The cost of air transportation will be greatly reduced, which will drive the aviation and tourism sectors
4.The automobile manufacturing and sales industry, especially traditional fuel vehicles, will receive more attention, and the manufacturing cost will be reduced, leaving more price reduction ranges.
This is also the reason for the recent foreign investment, the first fuel vehicle sector.
5.Chemical, metallurgical, construction and other raw material manufacturing industries: These industries mainly rely on oil and gas as raw materials or energy**, and their production costs will increase significantly when ***. At the same time, it will also be impacted on the demand side, and it will also face inventory backlog on the ** side.
6.Steel, construction and other infrastructure construction industries: These industries mainly rely on steel as an important raw material, and their production costs will increase significantly when it comes to ***.
At the same time, it will also be impacted on the demand side, and it will also face inventory backlog on the ** side.
7.Information technology service industries such as power and communications: These industries mainly rely on electricity as an important energy source, and their operating costs will increase significantly when it comes to electricity.
At the same time, it will also be impacted on the demand side, and it will also face power grid stability problems on the first side.
To sum up, the more the conflict becomes, the more optimistic it becomes, the oil and gas ** continues to decline, and after the US economy enters a "wartime state", a certain A enters a "war state".
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