Cold!Cold!Cold!
Haven't started "counting nine" yet
We're already ahead of schedule.
I experienced the "Counting Nine Cold Days".
This wave of cold air is too powerful.
This morning. The lowest temperature in Shenyang is -27
The temperature has hit a new low since the beginning of winter.
The lowest extreme value in the province is -386℃
Appeared at Hongmiaozi Station in Xinbin County, Fushun.
But. I remember.
It's just winter.
*This year will be a "warm winter".
What about the "warm winter" that was said?
Lost it?......
In fact, the cold wave and the "warm winter" do not conflict at all. Today, I will give you a detailed explanation
According to the National Climate Center, when we talk about a certain year or month, we do not determine whether the temperature is warmer than a single weather event, but by comparing the average temperature over the entire period of time, whether it is significantly higher or lower than the same period in history. For example, from November 3 to 7 this autumn, there was a cold wave weather process in most parts of China, and the temperature during this period fell off a cliff, which was much lower than the same period in history, but if you calculate the average temperature of the whole autumn, it is found to be the highest since 1951, so it is the "warmest autumn".
If the winter is warm, it means that it is more than the multi-year average overall, but it does not mean that there will not be a strong cold or warm event in this warm winter.
Therefore, if it is a warm winter, it means that this winter is not cold, which is actually a misunderstanding. In warm winter years, the change cycle of weather processes is still obvious, and strong cold air processes will also occur. It's just that people usually have a deeper memory of extreme events, and it is not easy to remember the average temperature, so there will be a bias in perception.
Doesn't it mean that global warming is coming?
Why is the cold air still so strong in autumn and winter?
As shown in the figure above, the stable polar vortex is confined to the Arctic region by a strong westerly jet stream, which is warming 2 to 3 times faster than the global rate in the context of global warming. As the Arctic warms and the temperature difference between the Arctic and the mid- and low-latitude latitudes weakens, it is difficult to maintain a strong westerly jet, and the cold air in the polar vortex becomes "restless" and more likely to move south. The cold air from the Arctic is much cooler than the middle and low latitudes where we live, so the story line is as follows, and the repeated cold waves make us feel "cold and cold".
According to the statistical analysis of historical data, the winter temperature in China is generally warm under the background of El Niño, but the periodic cold air activities are more frequent, that is to say, the fluctuations of cold and warm are more obvious.
The intensity of the cold air process is also strongly related to the disturbance of the Arctic vortex and the westerly wind belt in the middle and high latitudes. Since mid-December this year, most parts of China have changed from the prevailing southerly wind to the northerly wind, and the cold air has moved southward, causing the temperature to plummet.
On the other hand, the El Niño-induced anomalous anticyclone in the Philippines transported tropical water vapor to mainland China, resulting in a large-scale snowfall process in the central and eastern parts of China. In addition, the increase in albedo in clear skies caused by snow on the ground also made the temperature recovery slower in the later period.
China is a climate change-sensitive area with significant impacts, and although the warming rate is higher than the global average, the intensity of extreme cold waves has not weakened, and the impact range of strong cold air or cold waves has increased.
Post-winter climate trends**.
According to the National Climate Center, it is expected that in the latter winter (January-February 2024), the intensity of the East Asian winter monsoon will be generally weak, except for the northeast of Inner Mongolia, the north of Heilongjiang, most of the country, and the southern part of Qinghai The temperature is lower than that of the same period in normal years, the temperature in most parts of China is close to normal, but the cold and warm fluctuations are obvious, or the temperature "roller coaster" will be experienced again.
Therefore, when this cold and cold days have passed, everyone still can't relax their "vigilance" against cold air and cold waves!In the event of a large-scale cold wave and strong cooling weather, it is necessary to take precautions in advance.
Good news. Good news.
Tomorrow it starts during the day.
Temperatures have finally bottomed out**.
For two days over the weekend, the maximum temperature was above -10, and the minimum temperature also returned to above -20, close to the same period of the year!The temperature is slightly warmer, but everyone is reminded to pay attention to the cold and keep warm when going out.
Executive Producer: Li Ying
Reviewed by Yu Lili.
Editor-in-Chief Ying Nan.
Edited by Shang Lingjun.
*: Beidou Fusion Media, Northeast News Network, China Meteorological Administration, National Climate Center, Shenyang.