This article is the 731st original work of Deep Dive ATOM.
Although the consumer industry is moving towards recovery this year, since 2023, it has been difficult for the capital market to treat the capital market differently since 2023.
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Since mid-December 2022, it has reached 25After the high point of 81 yuan shares, Laiyifen's stock price fell endlesslyAs of December 11, 2023, Laiyifen's share price closed at 1367 yuan shares, compared with a year ago, nearly halved
It is true that in recent years, the general trend of the market size of China's snack food industry has peaked, which determines that it is difficult for investors to continue to increase the relevant companies in the track, but in horizontal comparison, although the stock prices of Yanjin Shop, Three Squirrels and other companies have fluctuated, there is no obvious decline all the way down.
From this point of view, the reason why Laiyifen's stock price has fallen and fallen may be largely due to the big problems in its own operation, which prompted investors to accelerate their flight.
Say goodbye to occasional dividends, Laiyifen's revenue and net profit have both declined
Since 2023,Laiyifen's stock price has gradually declined, which is directly related to its sluggish performance。The financial report shows that in the first three quarters of 2023, Laiyifen's revenue will be 300.2 billion yuan, down 7 percent year-on-year61%；Net profit attributable to the parent company was 454280,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of **9357%, deducting non-net profit loss of more than 31 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of **16612%。
In contrast, although the performance of other snack food companies also has a certain growth pressure, there is no decline in revenue and net profit.
The financial report shows that in the first three quarters of 2023, the revenue of Three Squirrels will be 458.2 billion yuan, down 1407%；Net profit 17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8142%；The revenue of Yanjin shop is 300.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5254%；Net profit 39.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8107%。
Source: Laiyifen's financial report for the third quarter of 2023.
In response to the dismal performance since 2023, Laiyifen explained in the financial report that "it is mainly due to the significant decrease in the ** business revenue of specific channels and the decrease in the sales revenue of some businesses of online e-commerce".
It is understood that in the first half of 2022, in order to support the epidemic, Laiyifen delivered a total of 2.28 million ** guaranteed supply orders, achieving a special channel ** business income of 23.9 billion yuan;In the first half of 2023, the ice and snow of the epidemic will melt, and Laiyifen's special canal** business income will drop to 12.3 billion yuan, down 48 percent year-on-year54%。
At the same time,Laiyifen also encountered the challenge of the peak of offline channel revenue and the decline of online business revenue
Source: Laiyifen's financial report for the first half of 2023.
According to the financial report, in the first half of 2023, Laiyifen's offline store revenue will be 175.2 billion yuan, a slight increase of only 006%, of which the revenue of the direct store business was 139.5 billion yuan, down 1 percent year-on-year69%, accounting for 66% of total revenue11%。In the same period, Laiyifen's e-commerce business revenue was 18.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of **289%。
Although Laiyifen is cutting directly operated stores and vigorously promoting franchised stores in order to reduce operating costs, as of mid-2023, Laiyifen still has 2,084 directly-operated stores, accounting for 56% of the total number of stores89%。
This is also decidedLaiyifen's operating costs remain high。According to the financial report, in the first half of 2023, Laiyifen's sales expenses and management expenses will be 56.2 billion and 26.6 billion yuan, accounting for 26% of total revenue64% and 1261%。
On the one hand, on the basis of the sharp decline in the business income of the special canal, Laiyifen's offline and offline channels have not been carried out effectivelyOn the other hand, because directly operated stores account for more than half, it is difficult to effectively reduce the rigid expenses of Laiyifen。The result of the combined efforts of the two parties is naturally that Laiyifen's revenue and net profit have both declined.
The scale of the snack food market has peaked, and Laiyifen has told a "new story".
As the "No. 1 snack stock", Laiyifen's performance has peaked, on the one hand, because of the lack of competitiveness of its business strategy, and on the other hand, it actually reflects the reality of the shrinking dividend of China's snack food industry.
Source: iiMedia Consulting.
According to the data disclosed by iiMedia Consulting, from 2020 to 2022, the market size of China's snack food industry will be 1,120 billion, 1,156.2 billion, and 1,165.4 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates respectively. 8%。It is not difficult to find that the growth rate of the market size of China's snack food industry is gradually declining.
What's even more worrying is that China's snack food industry will even have negative growth this year. iiMedia Consulting predicts that in 2023, the scale of China's leisure snack industry will be 1,124.7 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 35%。
Stretch the time to look at itLaiyifen's performance is in line with the overall downward trend of the industry to a certain extent。The financial report shows that from 2018 to 2020, the year-on-year growth rate of Laiyifen's revenue is respectively. 86% and 059%。
Although in the epidemic era, Laiyifen's revenue growth rate has picked up by relying on "special channel ** business income", but judging from the dismal financial reports in the first three quarters, in 2023, Laiyifen's revenue growth rate may be highly in line with the development trend of the industry and decline year-on-year.
Maybe it's because I see the ceiling of the snack food industry gradually emerging, or because the adjustment cost of existing directly operated stores is too highSince 2021, Laiyifen has repeatedly told "new stories".
Source: Laiyifen.
In mid-2021, Laiyifen said that the company had launched its own soy sauce wine brand "Zui Ai" series at the beginning of 2020, and it had been sold on the company's online and offline platforms. In November 2023, Laiyifen's Shanghai Zuiai Liquor Industry*** reached a strategic cooperation with Qianzui Liquor Industry and launched 53° Zuiai Classic Sauce Flavor Liquor.
In July 2023, Laiyifen also said that its "Laiyifen Coffee" was upgraded to "Laicup Coffee", and its main product is freshly ground coffee. In the early stage, it was mainly laid in the form of Yifen's "shop-in-shop", and independent stores will be opened in the future.
But it's worth notingAt present, the "new story" of soy sauce wine and coffee told by Laiyifen has not yet contributed to the company's outstanding performance
Taking the soy sauce wine business as an example, the financial report shows that from 2020 to 2022 and the first half of 2023, the revenue of Laiyifen Zuiai Liquor Industry will be 132 respectively810,000 yuan, 857190,000 yuan, 561390,000 yuan and 408160,000 yuan. According to the revenue data in the first half of 2023, Zuiai Liquor will only contribute 019% of revenue, better than nothing.
Shareholders take advantage of the "concept" to cash out, and Laiyifen has become an ATM
It is undeniable that the current "new stories" such as sauce wine and coffee have only been developed for a few years, and they are still in the cultivation period, and the limited revenue scale is understandable, but it is worth reflecting on the fact that these new businesses laid out by Laiyifen are far from the original snack business, and it is difficult to achieve business synergy, which is actually the key reason why these new businesses are difficult to scale up quickly.
From this point of view, combined with the macro trend of the market and the actions of shareholders,Laiyifen is willing to seek the near and far, and the purpose of laying out businesses such as soy sauce and coffee does not seem to be pure
In 2021, due to the high market demand and the price increase of liquor companies, liquor has gradually become the focus of attention in the capital market. According to the statistics of Finet, among the 19 liquor concept stocks in the A** field that year, 8 were **, accounting for nearly half, of which Shede Liquor, Yingjiagong Liquor, and Shuijingfang rose respectively. 74% and 4819%。
Perhaps because of the capital market's unusual attention to liquor, in mid-2021, Laiyifen issued a special announcement to announce to the outside world that as early as 2020, he launched his own soy sauce wine brand "Zui Ai" series.
Coincidentally, in recent years, a large number of local chain brands have risen strongly, which has also matured the coffee track. CCTV Finance reported that from April to June 2023, China's coffee** orders soared by 250%, making it the fastest-growing category among all kinds of beverages. It is estimated that by 2025, the size of China's coffee market will exceed one trillion yuan.
It is true that the increasingly hot tracks such as soy sauce and coffee mean that Laiyifen has a lot of room for development, but it is precisely because the market is still booming that the giants who have previously cultivated related tracks are also stepping up to seize the market, which also means that Laiyifen is also facing huge competitive pressure in the emerging track.
For example, in the sauce wine industry, brands such as Moutai, Xi Wine, and Langjiu have accumulated massive channel resources and high brand recognition after decades of operation. On the other hand, Laiyifen's only advantage in the soy sauce and wine industry is tens of thousands of offline stores.
Source: Micro Wine Diagram.
YetIt should be noted that the young consumer groups focused on by Laiyifen are not interested in liquor products。At the end of 2022, the "Young People's Liquor - Research Report on China's Liquor Category Innovation" released by Reece Strategic Positioning Consulting showed that the proportion of young people choosing liquor for personal drinks and friends dinners was only 7% and 9% respectively. Coupled with the fact that liquor pays attention to brand style and historical precipitation, it is naturally difficult for Laiyifen's "Drunk Love" series to open the market.
Under the background of a large number of giants in the relevant market and the huge survival pressure of new forces, Laiyifen still resolutely lays out businesses such as soy sauce wine and coffee, perhaps the drunkard's intention is not to drink.
From June 7 to 18, 2021, after disclosing the news that the company owns the soy sauce wine brand "Drunk Love" series, Laiyifen's share price has risen by nearly 60% for many days. During the period, Shanghai Aiwu, the controlling shareholder of Laiyifen, took 125 yuan-213 yuan shares**, high**, cashed out nearly 1400 million yuan.
Source: Laiyifen.
May 5, 2023Laiyifen disclosed the "Announcement of Shareholders' ** Share Plan"., to ** not more than 1009680,000 shares, no more than 3% of the company's total share capital.
Since then, Laiyifen has made frequent moves, first signing a strategic cooperation agreement with Tencent in June, covering various digital application scenarios in the snack food industry, as well as cloud computing, big data, AI and other technical fields, becoming an "AI concept stock".Later, in July, it was announced that its "Laiyifen Coffee" was upgraded to "Laicup Coffee", which rubbed on the concept of coffee.
During this period,Love House Enterprise Management Large**。On November 28, 2023, the announcement disclosed by Laiyifen showed that the implementation of Aiwu Enterprise Management's ** plan was completed, during which **6.6 million shares, ** shares accounted for 1 of the company's total shares96%。
All in all, due to the harvest of a wave of natural dividends last year, Laiyifen's performance base is high, and since 2023, the consumer market has been sluggish, not only has its "special channel ** business income" decreased sharply, but also the offline and online business has not been carried out effectively, and the performance has naturally "changed face".
Although in this context, Laiyifen has laid out more imaginative "new stories" such as sauce wine and coffee in advance, it is worth noting that due toThese emerging businesses do not have strong synergies with Laiyifen's snack business, and they are not yet imaginative
The reason why Yifen is willing to seek the near and far and not lay out new businesses in the snack track may be because concepts such as liquor, coffee, and AI have attracted the attention of the capital market, which is conducive to shareholders cashing out at a high point.
From this point of view,Laiyifen's current business orientation seems to be no longer to refine the operation of existing businesses, but to put the interests of shareholders first and is committed to helping shareholders "unbundle".