Polysilicon
Polysilicon** temporarily stabilized this week. The mainstream transaction of monocrystalline compound feeding material** is 60 yuan, and the mainstream transaction of monocrystalline dense material** is 59 yuan;N-type material** is 64 yuan kg.
From the perspective of transactions, as of this week, most companies have completed the signing of orders this month, and the overall scale of transaction orders during the week is not largeFrom the perspective of transaction structure, after the downstream n-type demand acceleratesThe overall transaction volume of n-type polysilicon was more active than that of p-type。On the supply side, this week is still dominated by the execution of orders from the early crystal pulling plant, except for some material companies in the maintenance period, the rest of the enterprises have normal output, and the marginal supply growth this month is relatively clearOn the demand side, the demand for p-type wafers has contracted at an accelerated pace, resulting in exhaustion of demand for p-type polysilicon, while n-type wafers still have some rigid support in the process of switching downstream terminal demand. In the relationship between polysilicon supply and demand, the elasticity coefficient of polysilicon supply is relatively small, and the supply is relatively rigid, so with the rigid support of no cost, the demand change will determine the trend of marginal change. Judging by the existing trends,P-type silicon wafers are generally in deficit, with obvious signs of production reduction, and the demand curve is moving downward, resulting in greater pressure on the p-type ** support, while the n-type demand line still has rigid demand support, and the current ** can still be maintained。Polysilicon** stabilized across the board this week, but p-type wafers** continued to decline, and it cannot be ruled out that p-type production will decline further in the future, and p-type polysilicon** may come under pressure again.
Silicon wafers
This week, the silicon wafers were differentiated, and the mainstream transaction of p-type M10 silicon wafers was 210 yuan piece;The mainstream transaction of P-type G12 is 315 yuan piece;The mainstream transaction volume of N-type M10 wafers** was 225 yuan piece.
Observing the supply-side situation, the downstream p-type 182 cells continue to fall into a state of loss, and the production reduction signs are obvious, and the feedback is transmitted to the wafer side, which makes the shipment of p-type 182 wafers more difficult. In this month's production schedule, wafer manufacturers have revised down their p-type output, but their own adjustment does not fully match the reduction in downstream demand, resulting in the gradual accumulation of p-type 182 wafer inventories, which cannot be fully digested by the downstreamP-type 182 wafers** extended their decline next week and are expected to fall below 21 yuan piece loss line；The 210P type has a similar problem, and the demand for P-type silicon wafers has collapsed rapidly due to technology switching, and ** has also entered the price decline channel. From the perspective of demand, the 182P battery** fell below 040 yuan w, up to 038 yuan W, after breaking through the production cost line, quickly fell to the cash cost line, a large number of p-type 182 battery production capacity towards clearing, p-type transactions gradually entered a state of shock. Wafer of the Week**N-type outside the whole line**, 182P type** to a historical lowIn the critical period of demand switching, if p-type wafer manufacturers adopt a panic selling strategy, it will further intensify the stampede of p-type**.
Cells
This week, the cell ** was differentiated, the M10** went down, and the rest of the models were temporarily stable;The mainstream transaction price of M10 cells is 0At RMB 39, the mainstream transaction price of G12 cells is 042 yuan W, M10 monocrystalline TOPCon battery people** is 048 yuan w.
From the supply side, P-type 182 batteries** fell by 2 month-on-month5% to 038 yuan, under this **, the gross profit margin of cell manufacturers is basically running in the negative range. It has been observed that the rate of p-type capacity clearance and shutdown is even faster than expected at the beginning of the month;Against this backdrop, cell manufacturers are accelerating the upgrade of TOPCon production capacityin exchange for further living space. The P-type 210** continued the ** trend after the lack of support from delivery orders, and the decline further expandedhas fallen to 042 yuan w, the calculation has broken through the profit and loss line。We have observed that some 210 specialized cell manufacturers have stopped productionIn terms of demand, the visibility of terminal orders is poor, which directly affects module scheduling plans, and p-type demand weakens again. At present, cells have entered the deep water area of P-N switching, and it is expected that cells** will still run under the loss line for a certain period of time due to the exhaustion of terminal demandAt this time, manufacturers began to promote the adjustment of the n-type structureIt is estimated that it needs to face the double kill of demand and **The huge pressure once again confirms our previous call on manufacturers to debug n-type production capacity as soon as possible, at least in the clearing stage, with high-efficiency sheet output to maintain a certain profit and survive the cold winter. This week, all cells** were under pressure except for n-type.
components
This week, modules** stabilized, with the mainstream transaction price of 182 monofacial mono PERC modules at 1.01 yuanw, the mainstream transaction price of 210 monofacial monocrystalline PERC modules is 102 yuan w, 182 bifacial double-glass monocrystalline PERC module transaction price is 102 yuan W, the mainstream transaction price of 210 bifacial double-glass monocrystalline PERC module is 103 yuan w.
On the supply side, except for some leading manufacturers with order support, the rest of the manufacturers adjusted production and scheduled production across the board, and module output fell again month-on-month. At present, module manufacturers are also complainingIf it breaks through the 1 yuan line, it is estimated that the component link will face a new round of reshuffle again. And the supply side looks,Visibility of orders was poor this month, and demand was also weak。Observing the trend of domestic demand, the procurement demand of ground projects has not yet observed a trend of volume, while overseas demand is still in the stage of depletion, so 24Q1 demand still needs to depend on the inventory digestion process. Modules** stabilized during the week, both sides of supply and demand are shrinking synchronously, and it is necessary to wait for whether there is a significant recovery signal in 24Q1 demand.
Photovoltaic glass
This week's glass ** down, 2The mainstream transaction price of 0mm coating is 170 yuan, 3The mainstream transaction price of 2mm coating is 26$0 .
On the supply side, a total of 3-4 production lines are expected to ignite this month, and it is expected that the overall volume will continue to rise, further exacerbating the overall inventory level of photovoltaic glass, and the pressure on manufacturers' shipments may increase. On the demand side, module makers are sluggish in their trading sentiment, with some manufacturers depleting excess inventories towards the end of the yearAdopt a low-price dumping strategyTherefore, the demand for profit concessions for auxiliary materials is stronger, and the current is superimposed.
Second- and third-tier module manufacturers have reduced production and stopped losses to varying degrees, so the demand for photovoltaic glass has been weakening, and the current buyer power is dominant in market transactions, and the bargaining power is strong. Photovoltaic glass** all declined this weekWith the opening of new production lines one after another, in order to avoid their own inventory pressure, most manufacturers have adopted the strategy of exchanging price for volume.
This article was originally written by EnergyTrend, please indicate the source if you need ** or cited data.