Today, when globalization and regionalization go hand in hand, the world is undergoing major changes unseen in a century. On the one hand, the rise of emerging economies has reshaped the international power landscapeOn the other hand, traditional powers are engaged in a new game to maintain their global influence.
The rules and order of the traditional world are being changed, and the big powers, which originally served as the stabilizers of world peace, have become the biggest destabilizing factors, adding new and greater variables to the international situation.
Behind the changes, of course, there are factors of economic situation and political strategy, but as Colin Gray, professor of international politics and strategic studies at the University of Reading in the United Kingdom, said, "all political affairs ......There is a geographical dimension, and geography cannot be ignored for the study and practice of international relations. Uncovering the inside story of these conflicts and strife and hiding behind the surface of the power game behind the global political map is geography.
Based on the basic framework logic of geography, the Foqua think tank predicted as early as 2019 that the United States would use Ukraine to start a war to disrupt the situation, and in 2021, it predicted that a new battlefield would break out in Belarus or Ukraine in 2022, and they all fulfilled it one by one.
The United States is using Ukraine to start a war to stir up the situation.
First of all, in 2019, Foqua predicted that the United States would give Ukraine the protagonist of the next spoiler war.
Ukraine as the largest country in Europe except Russia, spanning about 1,316 kilometers from east to west, hundreds of kilometers west of Ukraine is Germany, one of the European powers, and Ukraine also borders with Russia's enemy Poland, so whether Ukraine is the administrative region of the southwestern border of the Soviet Union or as an independent European country, it is the most important strategic buffer zone between Russia and Europe.
And when Ukraine becomes a direct front line without buffers, Russia will lose more than 1,000 kilometers of Ukraine's strategic depth, guns will go directly to Russia's doorstep, and tanks can drive unimpeded to Russia's important cities.
In addition, the United States can move Europe and Russia from reconciliation to dispute just by luring the war in Ukraine. After years of see-sawing, Europe and Russia are fully aware of their common strategic interests, and have made breakthroughs in relations since 2008, and Russia and France have even carried out large-scale military equipment cooperation. Strategically, the United States has been looking for opportunities to drive a wedge between Russia and Europe. Today, Ukraine, after experiencing "color revolutions" and wars, has become a wedge between Europe and Russia for the United States. Coupled with the fact that the United States accuses Russia of violating the provisions of the INF Treaty for a long time and will suspend the fulfillment of its obligations under the treaty, Europe may become an arena for US-Russian short- and medium-range missiles. And this will achieve the goal of the United States to drive a wedge between Europe and Russia.
The United States uses Ukraine to achieve the effect of disrupting the situation, which can not only break the blood relationship between Russia and Ukraine, but also drag down European integration. At the same time, because the transformation of the Russian state is far from over, and the economic structure is seriously skewed, it is difficult to take the initiative to regain the lost imperial territory in the face of a serious shortage of international market demand.
Based on the derivation of this logic, the Foqua think tank predicted the approximate time and place of this war as early as 2019.
At the beginning of 2022, new battlefields broke out in Belarus or Ukraine.
The second prediction was in December 2021, when the Foca think tank predicted that the new battlefield would take place in Belarus or Ukraine in early 2022.
Since Russia took back Crimea in 2014, Russian-Ukrainian relations have been in a state of tension, and Ukraine's two ** have always been proud of "toughening" Russia, and even took the initiative to provoke a war - on the one hand, there is an explanation to the domestic people, and on the other hand, it is a "ticket" to the United States and Europe in exchange for joining NATO. To this day, there is no sign of improvement in Russian-Ukrainian relations, and the "entry" of Belarus has added fuel to the fire of the Russian-European contradictions, Putin supports Belarus, but the European Union and NATO are trying to secretly subvert Belarus, Poland even took the initiative to ask the United States to deploy nuclear ** in its territory to deter Russia and Belarus, and Lukashenko for tat asked Russia to deploy nuclear ** in Belarusian ......At this point in time, Ukraine and Belarus were pushed to the "battlefield" step by step due to the intensification of contradictions between Russia and Europe, and almost forcibly carved out a war zone between Russia and Europe - neither EU territory nor Russian territory, which is convenient for the start of the "** people war" on the "territory of a third party". At least from a geopolitical point of view, there is no more ideal battlefield. Moreover, the pressure on Russia formed by NATO's eastward expansion over the past 30 years also needs to be released in a concentrated space.
The competition for influence and resources on the geostrategic chessboard will never cease. In the big game of chess in the future of the world, who is the best player, or who loses all the games?
In the future, when new and old hatreds and old grudges are intertwined, the new geopolitical "rifts" generated by the interweaving of old and new enmities between countries will not only be the focus of world contradictions, but also the "source of the plot" that is most likely to detonate a major war.
Wang Depei, chief economist of Fuqua Think Tank, has built a grand picture scroll of intertwined history and reality across time and space, which not only tells the changes of geopolitics, but also provides a key to help us unlock the geopolitical dynamics under the current changes in the world in a century, understand the in-depth game around the geographical location, resource control and strategic channels between major power competition, gain insight into the contest between countries, understand the economy, How culture and technology affect geopolitics, how to seek peace and prosperity in this global chess game, clear the fog, and anticipate future developments.