Yesterday, Big Ivan and a bigwig discussed the review of the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict, and after discussion, we came to two main conclusions: one is that it is not inevitable that Ukraine has reached this point, but at several historical junctures, Ukraine has all made the wrong choice;The second is that at present, Ukraine is basically out of luck, and it can be said that it is facing the threat of national extinction.
Such a conclusion, Big Ivan mentioned it on Weibo yesterday, and some readers left a message at the bottom hoping that we would make a big deal, so today we will briefly talk about the strategic decision-making mistakes of Ukraine.
Ukraine's former internal and external strategy
Big Ivan's point of view, in fact, after the color revolution in Ukraine in 2014, although the two oblasts of eastern Ukraine were centrifuged, and the Crimea region was taken away by Russia in a referendum on joining Russia, the situation has not yet eroded to the point of no return
Internally, Ukraine has adopted a certain policy of softness towards the eastern Ukrainian region, and even engaged in actions such as the so-called return of veterans, while focusing on infiltration of the Luhansk region. In November 2017, a coup d'état took place in Luhansk, the capital of Luhansk Oblast, which at the time was said to be a civil struggle between Donetsk and Luhansk, but later it was reported that pro-Ukrainian elements were responsible. At that time, Russia urgently controlled the situation with the Wagner cluster through Prigozhin, so that Luhansk did not fall back to Ukraine.
In terms of diplomatic strategy, Poroshenko, who was the first Ukrainian at the time, offered several hands, one is to rely on the United States but not to fully turn to the United States, the second is to oppose Russia but not to be fully hostile to Russia, the third is to establish good relations with neighboring countries, and the fourth is to win over foreign powers to contain Russia. Especially in relations with Belarus, although Grand Duke Lukashenko has always been intolerable to European countries because of his domestic and foreign affairs, Poroshenko has tightly wooed Lukashenko and has maintained good relations with Belarus, and at that time the relationship between Belarus and Russia was even incompatible.
At the same time, Poroshenko also tried his best to show goodwill to China and constantly attract Chinese investment, and the matter of the Madasich company was also determined during Poroshenko's reign, and Poroshenko intended to show Ukraine's best value in front of our country in this way, and form a containment with an attitude towards Russia. I have to say that although during Poroshenko's reign, there were constant frictions in eastern Ukraine, and Ukraine's ultranationalists and neo-Nazis can be called beasts, Poroshenko's strategy of balanced diplomacy once made Russia helpless against Ukraine, and a relatively delicate strategic balance was reached between the two sides.
Successive puzzle operations
But since Zelensky came to power in 2019, several huge mystery operations have been carried out one after another, and the situation left by Poroshenko has been defeated:
In August 2020, after Lukashenko was elected, the opposition leaders said that they did not recognize the election results and ran to Lithuania to take up their own positions in Belarus, and large-scale riots broke out in Minsk, and the Belarusian color revolution broke out. The United States and European countries immediately imposed sanctions and blockades on Belarus, and at this critical juncture, Ukraine announced that it would side with the United States and the European Union, and some professional color revolutionaries in Ukraine took advantage of the chaos and ran to Minsk to desperately mingle, vowing to pass on the "experience" of Maidan Square to Belarusians, and strive to hang the street lamp with "Grand Duke Lu" and his precious son as soon as possible.
In the face of Ukraine's betrayal, "Grand Duke Lu" was stunned, and said in his heart, why don't you play your cards according to common sense?At the most dangerous moment of the color revolution in Belarus, "Grand Duke Lu" almost cried when he faced it, hoping that Russia would help Belarus. And Russia was also unceremonious, and immediately took action, suppressed the Belarusian color revolution, and finally saved Lukashenko. However, this operation of Ukraine has caused huge evil consequences, after Belarus settled the color revolution, relations with Ukraine have become bad so far, and the relationship between "Grand Duke Lu" and Putin is as good as that of brothers, completely forgetting that two years ago, the two of them were still in the relevant meetings of the CIS.
The most direct consequence of Belarus's strategic shift is that the entire northern part of Ukraine is exposed to Russia's troops, especially the Belarusian border is only a few dozen kilometers away from Kyiv, which means that the Russian army's long-range rocket artillery is enough to threaten Kyiv's security in the case of Russian-Belarusian military integration. As expected, the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict in 2022 began with the Russian air assault force storming Kyiv from Belarus.
The second mystery operation is the Madasic incident, in fact, the Madasic incident can be regarded as a turning point for Ukraine. I remember that a few years ago, we analyzed many times what is the background of the Chinese company that wants to acquire Madasic, in fact, there is a head, Ukraine is not completely offended by China on this issue, but the bigger problem is the so-called United Nations co-sponsorship incident hosted by the United States in June 2019.
As long as it is not a country that completely falls to the US camp, it does not dare to sign this joint signature, but Zelensky, who has just taken office, signed this joint signature ......Although Ukraine reacted two days later and immediately announced the withdrawal of the signature, it was too late. Ukraine has made a mistake in taking sides on the Madasich issue and on the issue of co-signing, putting itself in the position of the US camp, and its intention to bring in foreign powers to contain Russia has vanished.
Having lost the containment of the Belarusian "united front" and extraterritorial powers, Ukraine's own strategic autonomy has been greatly reduced, and such a Ukraine is still desperately walking a tightrope on domestic issues. In June 2021, Ukraine passed the so-called "Indigenous Peoples' Rights Act", which is basically the embodiment of Greater Ukrainian nationalism, directly getting ethnic Russians in Ukraine to the point of being left behind, and even further offending other ethnic minorities in Ukraine.
At the same time, on the issue of eastern Ukraine, Ukraine has repeatedly put on a posture of wanting a large-scale offensive and fighting to the death with Russia, for example, in March 2021, the Ukrainian army concentrated more than a dozen brigades and prepared to launch a large-scale offensive against Donetsk. The Russian army reacted immediately, and the Southern Military District and the Western Military District carried out combat readiness pulling and combat readiness inspections, and after more than two months of tossing, both sides went back to their respective homes to find their own mothers. As a result, at the beginning of 2022, the Ukrainian army did its tricks again, this time not only gathering more than a dozen brigades of troops, but even began to mobilize reserves across the country.
From a purely military point of view, the concentration of troops and the mobilization of reserves are not at all at the same level in terms of confrontation intensity, and Russia judged that the Ukrainian army should take the initiative to attack because Ukraine began to mobilize reservists in early February 2022. In this case, it is better to strike preemptively, which detonated the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict that continues to this day.
The reason why Ukraine's attitude towards Russia has changed drastically, and it has changed drastically in 2021 and 2022, considering that after Biden took office in 2021, he began to stimulate Russia on issues such as NATO's eastward expansion and the European security architecture, it seems that Russia must be forced to do something. Whether Ukraine is behind the instigation of the United States, and whether Ukraine will begin to move forward recklessly as soon as the United States instigates it, I am afraid that it will always be an unsolved mystery.
In fact, after the break with Belarus, the sharp decline in relations with China, a foreign power, and the inexplicable entry into conflict with Russia, there is very little room for Ukraine to maneuver. The only way out is to cease fire and stop the war with Russia as soon as possible, which is also when the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict just broke out, my country's attitude towards Ukraine, now it seems that my country is really a kind person, pointing out a clear way for Ukraine. And after Ukraine was beaten in the early days of the conflict, and now we have seen that a neutrality agreement was negotiated with Russia in March, and if Ukraine can really maintain neutrality in accordance with the provisions of the agreement, in exchange for Ukraine's territorial integrity and Russia's withdrawal of troops, it will not be a bad ending. Although a lot of mistakes have been made in the front, as long as this question is done correctly, it will not lead the whole of Ukraine to the point of a complete overturn.
But then, here's the plot we saw, Ukraine was dazzled by the flickering of British Prime Minister Johnson, who visited Kyiv in early April, or under the flickering of Britain and the United States, - I really thought that Russia was vulnerable, and I really thought that Ukraine, with the support of the NATO bloc, could really push back Russia by relying on NATO's ** equipment, and even slaughtered Russia and everyone sat on the ground to share the bear's meat......After that, Ukraine recklessly decided to tear up the agreement it had signed with Russia, rashly enter a large-scale conflict with Russia, and must fight Russia to the end, which has reached this point, which means that the last bit of strategic mutual trust and strategic ties between Ukraine and Russia is gone, which means that Ukraine really has no way to turn back.
Under the guidance of this strategy of rushing into the conflict, Ukraine has finally reached the point of exhaustion after a year of fighting, and the NATO bloc wants to abandon Ukraine, and even Ukraine's own strategic resources have been exhausted. In this sense, Ukraine's arrival here is really the result of a combination of multiple strategic mistakes, some of which are irreversible and some are irreversible, which can be called a real strategic mistake at the level of the country. Looking at the post-Cold War world, there are really not many strategic options that can continuously make Ukraine**, and it is indeed for us to see.