Recently, Italian Prime Minister Meloni said that Italy has officially withdrawn from China's "One Belt, One Road" initiative because it has not brought the desired results. At the same time, Italy's withdrawal from the Belt and Road Initiative will instead seek to revitalize its strategic partnership agreement with China, according to Italy**.
In March 2019, the leaders of China and Italy signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on Italy's accession to the Belt and Road Initiative. Since then, Italy has become the first founding member of the European Union to officially confirm its willingness to participate in China's investment projects, and the only country in the Group of Seven (G7) to sign the Belt and Road Initiative.
ItalyWhy did you change your hexagram?
1. The choice to withdraw from the "Belt and Road" initiative stems from Italy's political tradition of left and right betting. "Wallgrass" is the most quintessential Italian label. Throughout history, Italy has always switched back and forth between the victorious and the defeated.
During World War I, Italy began to follow the German and Austrian empires, and later defected to Britain and FranceDuring World War II, Italy still followed Germany, but seeing that the situation was not right, it turned to the United States and Britain in 1943. It is not difficult to see that every political bet in Italy has yielded unimaginable benefits. Whichever side has the upper hand has become the most basic logic of Italy's foreign policy. Politically, Italy is not a reliable and trustworthy country.
In 2019, Italy and China signed a memorandum of cooperation on the Belt and Road Initiative, and is the only country in the G7 to join the initiative. At that time, the Italian political and business circles were looking forward to the huge business opportunities contained in Sino-Italian cooperation, hoping to inject a boost into the weak Italian economy and greatly increase the export volume to China. Four years later, however, Italy's "China fever" has cooled significantly.
Amigini, a professor of economics and a China expert at the Italian Institute of International Politics, pointed out that Italy's imports of goods from China are now significantly higher than the amount of goods exported to China. Armigini believes that the signing of the agreement between China and Italy was mainly of great strategic significance to China and was the result of the game between the two great powers, China and the United States, while Italy was just a puppet, and the real chess players were China and the United States.
At the same time, according to Italian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Tajani, Italy's withdrawal from the "Belt and Road" initiative does not mean that Italy will not engage in economic and trade cooperation with China, and it does not mean that it will have an adverse impact on China's relations. Italy also plans to resolve all current international issues with the Chinese side during the meeting between China and Italy in 2024.
Second, under the coercion and temptation of the United States, the Meloni authorities in Italy were forced to choose to withdraw from the group. Under the influence of the G7, Italy feels that its position has been weakened, even pressured and limited in the process of cooperating with China.
Therefore, in order to align itself with the United States and its allies and gain a certain political advantage, Italy decided to withdraw from the Belt and Road Initiative. As everyone knows, the United States has always been obsessed with China's "Belt and Road" initiative, not only smearing and maliciously slandering everywhere, but also coercing and enticing countries around the world that want to join the "Belt and Road" initiative, and doing everything possible to obstruct and sabotage them. For the allies and younger brothers of the United States, they are not allowed to join, and for Italy, which has already joined, pressure is exerted to make it withdraw. In fact, when Italian Prime Minister Meloni came to power, there was news that the United States was pressuring Italy to withdraw from the "Belt and Road" initiative, which made Italy in a dilemma.
After Meloni's visit to the United States in July this year, Italy's withdrawal was a foregone conclusion, and in order to take into account China's feelings, it was not announced until December. At the same time, the current Prime Minister of Italy, Meloni, is taking the ** diplomatic line. As early as the 2022 election campaign, Meloni repeatedly voiced her opposition to the Belt and Road cooperation agreement with China. During her first visit to the White House, she said she would make a decision on whether to withdraw from the Belt and Road Initiative by December. Meloni, as the leader of a far-right group, has made various attempts to get Italy out of its current economic woes, but to no avail.
In this case, the Meloni regime can only express its dissatisfaction with China through political catharsis, after all, the United States still has a deep control and influence over Italy. The U.S. Sixth Fleet is stationed in Naples, Italy. In this case, Italy clearly did not dare to get too close to China. In the case of the Sino-US game and the United States suppressing China in all directions, the pressure on Italy is very huge. As Meloni said, Italy, as the only developed country to join the Belt and Road Initiative, is simply unable to bear the weight of life.
3. Meloni's authorities believe that Italy's participation in the Belt and Road Initiative has not been duly rewarded. Meloni said at an event in Milan: "Why are we the only country that joins the Silk Road but not the most with China. I think we have to maintain and improve the economic and ** relations with China, but the Silk Road approach did not give the desired results. ”
Meloni believes that China, France and Germany are not BRI partners, and France and Germany are not part of the BRI initiative, but China's investment in these two countries is much higher than Italy's. In this case, Italy must be reluctant.
This means that China's investment has not met Meloni's expectations, and it has strongly expressed its dissatisfaction by withdrawing from the Belt and Road Initiative. After all, when the Belt and Road Initiative does not reap sufficient benefits within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative, it is natural for a country with a tradition of speculation such as Italy to choose to withdraw.
What will be the impact of Italy's withdrawal?
1. Italy** has objections to the Meloni administration's choice to withdraw from the Belt and Road Initiative. Former Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte objected to the decision after the Meloni authorities sent a note to China about the withdrawal from the Belt and Road Initiative, according to Italy**.
In 2019, Conte, former Italian prime minister and leader of the Five Star Movement, decided to sign a memorandum of understanding with China to join the Belt and Road Initiative. Conte called Meloni's choice "an own ball," which he considered "an ideological decision that harms the interests of corporations and brings relations with China back to square one." He added that the agreement "does not affect any strategic assets and facilities [in Italy]." Conte's position was also supported by a number of Italian parliamentarians, who agreed that it would eventually affect Italian businesses.
Second, withdrawing from the Belt and Road Initiative could lead to Italy missing out on cooperation with China
Machine. As the world's second-largest economy, China plays an important role in the Belt and Road Initiative and brings huge business and development opportunities to participating countries.
However, Italy's "withdrawal" means that they will miss this opportunity, which may lead to a certain shock to their economic development. In the era of globalization, international cooperation and mutual benefit are particularly important. It is undoubtedly short-sighted for Italy to pursue political interests and abandon business opportunities to cooperate with China. For Italy, there may be some political benefit to withdrawing from the Belt and Road Initiative, but this cannot be offset by the loss of business opportunity and influence.
According to the Bank of Italy, as of March 2023, Italy's debt hit an all-time high of 2.79 trillion euros (equivalent to $3 trillion), making it the second most indebted country in the eurozone, after Greece. In 2022, the amount of China and Italy will reach 778At $8.4 billion, Italy is best known for luxury and brand-name clothing, while China has always been the world's largest consumer market for luxury and luxury clothing.
China is Italy's fourth largest partner and Asia's largest partner. At the same time, Italy is only China's third largest partner in the EU. Joining the Belt and Road Initiative was supposed to be an opportunity, but Italy's choice to give up is very likely to curb the good momentum with China, and it may not be so easy to recover.
Third, Italy's decision could also lead to the loss of its influence in European affairs. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a framework for international cooperation that China is actively promoting, and countries participating in it can gain more resources and voice in economic, political and geostrategic aspects.
By contrast, Italy's withdrawal from the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) could limit its voice on the European stage, missing out on more opportunities for cooperation and its ability to influence decision-making in other countries. As for Italy's "withdrawal from the group", the Chinese side has already warned about it. Chinese Ambassador to Italy Jia Guide once said: "Italy's withdrawal from the Belt and Road Initiative will send a negative signal, affect the cooperation between China and Italy, and adversely affect Italy's international image and credibility." ”
Some analysts believe that the Chinese side will inevitably respond to Italy's "riding on the wall" behavior. Italy** is now facing a very tricky situation, even if Meloni allows the "One Belt, One Road" agreement to expire naturally in 2024, it will not be able to prevent China's political and economic influence from further expanding.
What does the future hold?
First, China's overall relationship with Italy should not be subject to major conflicts. Whether all countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative are willing to stay or not is, of course, in accordance with the agreement. China wants Italy to stay under the initiative, but it can also understand the pressure on the G7 member to participate in the Belt and Road Initiative, especially Biden**.
Although there are many countries participating in the "Belt and Road" initiative, but so far there has been no withdrawal, Italy because it is a developed country in the West, participating in the "Belt and Road" initiative has created a world first, and now the withdrawal has also created a first. And how China handles its relationship with Italy is also in the eyes of many countries that want to participate. Any country's participation in the Belt and Road Initiative is based on interests and recognition of the development concept advocated by China, and it is definitely not a forced buying and selling.
Italy's withdrawal from the Belt and Road Initiative does not fully represent its anti-China stance. In terms of relations with China, Italy's political parties, whether left or right, establishment or populist, will not take the initiative to "decouple from China" and abandon Sino-Italian cooperation. If the withdrawal of the right-wing from the "Belt and Road" initiative finally leads to the decoupling and breaking of the chain between China and Italy, then the United States is really happy.
In fact, there are still broad prospects and potential for cooperation between China and Italy in other fields. For example, in the fields of scientific and technological innovation, environmental protection, and high-end manufacturing, Italy has world-leading technology and experience, which can provide important support and assistance for China's industrial upgrading and innovative development. At the same time, China, as one of the largest markets in the world, can provide more sales opportunities and market share for Italian goods and services.
Therefore, even if Italy withdraws from the Belt and Road Initiative, China and Italy can still bring more benefits and value to each other by strengthening cooperation in other areas. In addition, although Italy's withdrawal from the Belt and Road Initiative may have some impact on cooperation between the two countries, it will not change the cooperation and relations between the two countries in other areas.
Second, we must break the Western people's perception that signing an agreement with China is a favor to China. Italy, one of the few Western countries to join the Belt and Road Initiative, is under pressure from the United States and other Western countries to return to the economic path of the Western camp. In this case, China can calmly look at whether Italy will be better off after withdrawing from the Belt and Road Initiative. Italy, the world's eighth-largest economy, has been stagnant for 16 years.
In 2023, China's imports and exports to countries along the "Belt and Road" will increase by 98%, this is a land of rising wealth, and it is Italy, not China, that suffers more if it does not join the Belt and Road Initiative. In addition, China must be wary of some countries using their accession to or withdrawal from the Belt and Road Initiative as a bargaining chip to blackmail China or curry favor with the United States. Some believe that Italy's decision is the result of pressure from the G7 countries and is in line with the strategic interests of the United States.
According to another view, Italy is gambling and seeking to continue its cooperation with China, but at the same time wants to retain relations with the West in order to have greater tactical freedom in the international political arena in the future. Either way, it shows the complexity and variability of the international political landscape, in which each country wants to seek maximum benefit and influence in order to secure its own strategic space.
Withdrawing from the group is not the best way to solve the problem, and the international community should uphold multilateral and investment rules and seek to establish a more stable and open international cooperative relationship. China should recognize this and view international relations in a rational and objective manner.
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