Text|Fortune Unicorn.
*|Fortune Unicorn.
This year, ** regained the throne of "hedging king" and became the most shining class of assets in the global capital market. On the one hand, the central mothers of various countries are crazy about grabbing, and while the pace of gold purchase is accelerating, the amount of gold purchased has repeatedly broken records. On the other hand, ** assets also continue to be sought after by investors, and many people use them as an important choice to diversify risks and obtain stable returns. Recently, ChinaAMC has launched an investment tool to help investors easily participate in the market - *share ETF (159562).
The global "gold rush" continues to heat up
In the past two years, the trend can be described as a sesame flowering trend. Since October 2022, ** has continued to climb, especially since the beginning of this year, driven by various factors such as bank failures in the United States and interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the international gold price has continued to perform strongly, rising to a maximum of $2,144 ounces this year, surpassing the all-time high of $2,075 ounces set in August 2020.
Synchronized with the soaring gold price is the enthusiasm and pace of global central banks to increase their holdings**. According to the "Global Demand Trend Report" released by the World Association on October 31, in the third quarter, global central banks purchased 337 tons, the third highest quarterly net purchase of gold in history. In the first three quarters of 2023, central banks** net purchases reached 800t, with demand for gold up 14% y-o-y, the highest since the association began to compile such statistics. In addition, the World Association expects central banks to continue to maintain strong gold purchase demand for the rest of the year, suggesting that total central bank gold purchase demand is expected to remain strong throughout 2023.
In recent years, central banks around the world have continued to buy**. Looking back at history, in 2009, central banks began to gradually shift from "net**" to "net purchases"**, and have been net purchases for 13 consecutive years. Data shows that from 2009 to 2022, the world's ** reserves increased from 25,823A low of 3 tonnes rose to 35,3628 tons. In particular, in 2022, global central bank purchases increased significantly, reaching a cumulative high of 1,136t, a 55-year high.
In the new round of "gold buying fever", China's central bank has become the largest official buyer. According to the World Association report, the People's Bank of China increased its reserves by 78 metric tons in the third quarter, and since the beginning of this year, the central bank's reserves have increased by 181 metric tons to 2,192 metric tons, making it the world's largest largest largest holdings. It should be pointed out that since November last year, China's ** reserves have achieved "twelve consecutive increases".
According to the statistics of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, as of the end of October 2023, China's ** reserves were reported at 71.2 million ounces (about 2214.00 million57 tons), an increase of 740,000 ounces (about 23.)02 tons).
Why **?
From ancient times to the present, ** has maintained a special status. Generally speaking, ** has three major attributes: commodities, investment and currency.
As the saying goes, "Prosperous collection, troubled times**" When war or local turmoil comes, relevant countries tend to soar prices and depreciate currencies, and the ** with its own "international credit" endorsement is particularly noble. Why has the price of gold risen like this year?The main reason is that the atmosphere of risk aversion is high. Central banks increase their reserves in their international reserve portfolios, or out of consideration for risk aversion through rational asset allocation to achieve long-term returns.
Investment** can resist inflation, which is a big reason why central banks favor** assets. Historically, ** has performed well during periods of high inflation. Especially in the years in history when inflation was above 3%, **average**14% per year**. In recent years, central banks in some countries have adopted accommodative monetary policies, which have led to currency depreciation and inflationary pressures. In order to keep the national currency stable, the central bank may choose to buy ** to hedge against inflation risks.
From an asset allocation perspective, the low correlation with other asset classes makes it an effective tool for diversifying portfolio risk. For investors who have already bought**, or other major types of assets, holding ** as a target for portfolio diversification for a long time can reduce the volatility of the portfolio.
In addition, **, as a financial asset, has a relatively considerable return on investment. According to statistics, since 2018, the average annualized yield has exceeded 6%, which is higher than the yield of U.S. Treasury bonds in the same period, which makes increasing holdings an important means of maintaining and increasing value.
How will the international gold price go in the future?Generally speaking, ** and the US dollar show a seesaw relationship, when the US dollar is strong, **will**, on the contrary, when the US dollar is weak, ** will go higher. The US CPI data in October was significantly weaker than expected, consolidating the foundation for the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate hikes, and the market is expected to cut interest rates next year in advance, entering a reversal trend, and the value of medium-term allocation needs to be paid attention to. Some analysts believe that in the next six months, the price of gold is expected to reach $2,100 an ounce.
A new option to invest in: a stock ETF
When it comes to the way of investment, most people think of physical goods. In fact, there are four main ways to participate in **investment**: physical**, paper**, and **ETF. In contrast, ETFs have become a way for many ordinary investors to participate in ** investment due to their low threshold, low fees and convenient operation.
*Share ETF (159562) tracks the CSI CSI CSI-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Industry Index (Index**:931238;Abbreviated as "ssh***" The index is selected from the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong markets with large market capitalization, and the business involves **mining, smelting, and sales** listed companies as index samples, as of November 15, 2023, the number of index constituents is 46, with a total market value of 158 trillion yuan.
From the perspective of the distribution of Shenwan's secondary industries, as of November 15, 2023, SSH mainly invests in ***4704%), industrial metals (27.).21%), jewelry (3.76%), it can be said that the index packages the first industrial chain with one click, including mining, smelting, sales and other links, covering the upstream, midstream and downstream.
Data**: Wind, as of 202311.15
Judging from the top ten constituent stocks, SSH is basically the leader, such as Zijin Mining, Shandong, CICC, Chifeng, etc., either with large reserves or a sales network all over the country.
From the perspective of historical performance, SSH *** is not only more elastic, but also has better long-term performance, and the excess is significant, which can be said to be the best amplifier. Since 2019, the index has achieved an excess return of more than 20% relative to the London gold price, and the index has a significant return advantage. Data**: Wind, as of 202311.15）
It is worth noting that the ** share ETF (159562) is escorted by the strength of the investment team of ChinaAMC ** Index. Among the public offering companies, Huaxia is a leader. As of the third quarter report of 2023, the scale of its passive equity products has exceeded 370 billion yuan, ranking first in the industry for 18 consecutive years, and it is also the only domestic company that has been rated as a "passive investment golden bull" for 7 consecutive years. In general, ** share ETF (159562) is a good investment tool, which can help investors capture *** dividends with one click.