100 help plan
The biggest highlight of the recent economic work conference was the first mention of China's economic brightness. Some people say that whether the economic situation is good or not, the people's personal feelings are the most real. Whether the future prospects are good or not depends on doing rather than talking. Therefore, there is no need to mention any "light theory". Is this right?
From the perspective of the long cycle of history, this view should be correct, because human civilization is obviously done by doing, not by saying. From the perspective of the macroeconomic cycle, this view is also correct, because in the decades since the reform, the West has never stopped advocating the "collapse theory" of China's economy, but the fact is that China's economy has been moving forward in the sound of collapse and has not collapsed.
From the perspective of the microeconomic short cycle, is this view still correct?A person who understands Western economics, especially microeconomics, should understand that it is important to feel whether the economic situation is good or not, but the vision for the future is usually more important. What is the future prospect, of course, depends on hard work, but at the same time, it also depends on talking, and many times it is more important to say than to do.
The reason for this is the expectation theory of Western economics. Traditional economics focuses on supply and demand, and reflects market trends through changes in supply and demand, so as to determine market behavior. After the emergence of expectation theory, people began to pay attention to the guidance of so-called rational expectations and the use of irrational expectations. This determines that the West has gradually turned to a social ecology that is more important than what is more important than doing.
Where this kind of argument can play a role, usually in the micro field, it usually has little impact on the overall macroeconomy. For example, the so-called "collapse theory" of China that has been preached by the West for a long time will certainly affect China's **, foreign exchange market or bond market, but those entrepreneurs who do real enterprises will obviously not be affected by this "collapse theory", otherwise China's economy will not have 40 years of high growth.
From this point of view, guiding and speculating expectations will usually only have an impact on industries that make quick money, because the fast money industry speculates on expectations, and earns short-term windfall profits by inducing and using expectations. The reason why the expectation theory will fail in the medium and long term is that after a long time, everyone will understand that the expected story will be a goof.
"Collapse theory" and "light theory" are both the practice of anticipation theory, and it is precisely because of the long-term existence of "collapse theory" that the "light theory" is proposed, just as there should be light if there is darkness. The difference between the two is that most of the "collapse theorists" serve short-term arbitrage, but the brightness theory should obviously focus more on the medium- and long-term prospects. Although a crash has never been seen, as long as there is a new story to tell, the "crash theory" will continue to be renewed, and it will continue to serve the speculation or manipulation of people's short-term expectations and the short-term arbitrage behavior of capital. It seems that only China can envision, describe and plan for future economic and social prospects in the world, such as five-, ten-, or even thirty-year plans. This kind of planning is actually a kind of expectation, focusing on medium- and long-term expectations, which is essentially a typical "brightness theory".
Medium- and long-term planning is certainly a kind of expectation, but it is a kind of "hard expectation", which has a clear and unshakable meaning in it, so it has a more guiding role than the so-called rational or irrational expectations emphasized by Western economics, and belongs to a kind of hard truth. Therefore, we can see that in China's economic practice for decades, the "collapse theory" has always only affected the short-term fluctuations of fast money industries such as **, while the "bright theory" can lead China's economy to prosperity and strength in the long run.