Introduction
The 2023 ** Economic Work Conference proposed to "properly resolve the risks of the real estate market, promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market, and accelerate the construction of a new model of real estate development", etc., and policies will be issued frequently in 2023, and various industries will pay more attention to the development trend of the real estate market in 2024. The Real Estate Finance Research Center of PBC School of Finance, Tsinghua University, together with the China Index Research Institute, launched the project "2024 China Real Estate Market Trend Prediction Survey"., launched an in-depth questionnaire survey on the executives of 64 industry institutions, including 41 real estate companies and 23 financial institutions (including banks, AMC and other credit institutions, insurance, ** and other investment institutions, securities companies and other research institutions). This article is part of a series of survey reports - "Policy", the first part of the series "Macro Chapter" has been released, and the follow-up "Real Estate Enterprise Chapter" will also be released one after another, welcome to continue to pay attention.
At the level of policy evaluation and expectations, the survey and analysis mainly include the following conclusions:
1) In 2023, the demand-side housing loan policy will be relatively effective, but the overall real estate policy will be less effective
2) Respondents still have expectations for the 2024 policy, and the demand side has higher expectations than the supply side
3) The demand side is looking forward to increasing the range of mortgage interest deduction for individual income tax, continuing to give priority to purchase restrictions, and reducing transaction taxes and fees
4) Supply-side real estate companies are most looking forward to the full abolition of price limits and the relaxation of floor area ratio restrictions, and financial institutions are most looking forward to accelerating the promotion of policies related to mergers and acquisitions of insurance companies.
Research and analysis
1.In 2023, the demand-side housing loan policy is considered to be relatively effective, but the overall real estate policy is not effective
Survey respondents generally believe that lowering the threshold and cost of buying a home is the most effective policy to be introduced on the demand side in 2023, including lowering the down payment ratio, lowering the loan interest rate, and "recognising the house but not the loan". From the perspective of the types of interviewed institutions, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the policy by the respondents of financial institutions is generally lower than that of real estate enterprises, and the views of different institutions on whether the "cancellation of purchase restrictions in some cities" is effective are the most different.
Figure Evaluation of the effectiveness of demand-side policies introduced in 2023
Respondents generally believe that the policies introduced on the supply side will be less effective than those on the demand side in 2023The evaluation of the effectiveness of various policies by the respondents of real estate enterprises is higher than that of financial institutions. The respondents of the survey of real estate enterprises believe that the most effective policy is the special loan of "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings", and the respondents of financial institutions believe that the most effective policy is to extend the relevant policy period of the "16 Articles of Finance". Figure Evaluation of the effectiveness of supply-side policies introduced in 2023
2.In 2024, there are still policy expectations, and the overall policy expectations on the demand side are higher than those on the supply sideThe respondents' scores on policy expectations in 2024 are significantly higher than those in 2023, and their expectations for the demand side in 2024 are generally higher than those on the supply sideThe most anticipated demand-side policy is to increase the range of mortgage interest deduction for individual income tax, and the optimization of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities, the complete cancellation of purchase restrictions in second-tier cities, and the reduction of taxes and fees in transaction links are also highly anticipated. Figure The degree of expectation for demand-side policies in 2024
In terms of supply-side policies, the focus of policy expectations of respondents of different types of institutions is different: real estate enterprises are most looking forward to the policy of fully abolishing price limits and relaxing floor area ratio restrictions from the perspective of incremental market, and financial institutions are most looking forward to accelerating the promotion of policies related to mergers and acquisitions of insurance companies from the perspective of the stock market. In addition, the respondents' expectations for the three arrows generally said that the first arrow, the second sword, and the third arrow. Figure 2024 supply-side policy expectations
3.In 2024, it is expected that more effective policies will be launched on the demand sideCompare the policies that have been introduced in 2023 and are expected to be introduced in 2024 on the demand sideAs the down payment ratio and mortgage interest rate in most cities in 2023 have been lowered to the lower limit of the policy, the expectation of relevant policies in 2024 has decreased. However, the survey respondents generally have higher expectations for policies such as optimizing purchase restrictions and reducing transaction taxes and fees that have not yet been adopted in first-tier cities. Figure Comparison of the effectiveness of demand-side policies in 2023 and the expected degree in 2024
The research group's point of viewThe survey results show that there is still plenty of room for optimization of policies at both ends of supply and demand in 2024, and in order to further play the positive role of policies in promoting the healthy development of the market, the research group recommends paying attention to the following points:First, policy optimization should be effective, precise and forward-looking. The survey results show that respondents still have high expectations for the scope and strength of real estate policies in 2024. The research group suggested that the policy in 2024 should focus on precise efforts and avoid shallow attempts from all angles. At the same time, the introduction of policies should be forward-looking, and actively guide the market to return to stability as soon as possible. Second, demand-side policies should focus on reducing residents' housing and transaction costs. At present, residents' employment, income and other fundamental expectations are insufficient, and there is a lack of expectations and confidence. In 2024, the cost of buying houses in all links should be reduced, the market should be active, and the housing price expectations should be stabilized. From the survey results, the most anticipated demand-side policy - the individual income tax deduction range of housing loan interest as an example: at present, China's housing loan deduction tax is a standard fixed deduction of 1,000 yuan per month before tax income, and mature markets such as the United States can deduct the actual mortgage loan interest, calculated according to the 30-year repayment period of 3 million housing loans, with an average monthly deduction of 6,500 yuan. In addition, reducing transaction taxes and fees is also an important policy direction. Third, the supply-side policy should focus on resolving the risks of real estate enterprises and promoting market-oriented restructuring. From the perspective of stock, the most concerned supply-side policy is to speed up the mergers and acquisitions of risk-taking real estate enterprises, and the research group believes that market restructuring is the key to the establishment of market equilibrium. From the perspective of increment, the most concerned supply-side policy is the complete abolition of price limits and the relaxation of floor area ratio restrictions, indicating that the survey respondents have expectations for the growth of housing prices in some luxury homes and inverted markets, hoping to effectively stabilize housing price expectations.