Zhitong Finance and Economics learned that Everbright ** released a research report saying that the average VLCC freight rate in November was about US$27,987 per day, an increase of 139% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 504%, and the difference between supply and demand in 23-25 years is -49%、-3.7%、-2.1%, the improvement of supply and demand relationship has strong certainty, and the freight rate center is expected to continue to increase. In terms of container transportation, in the long run, the weak import demand in Europe and the United States and the continuous increase in a large number of capacity are still the main contradictions, and the pattern of oversupply will continue to be maintained. In terms of dry bulk transportation, with the year-end Christmas and Spring Festival holidays approaching the decline in demand, freight rates are expected to fall significantly, Clarksons expects that the supply growth rate will still be slightly greater than the demand growth rate in 2024, and the supply and demand relationship is expected to improve significantly in 2025.
Everbright**'s views are as follows:
Tanker shipping market tracking and freight rate outlook in November
The average VLCC freight rate in November was about $27,987 per day, an increase of 139% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 504%;In terms of routes, the average freight rates of TD3C and TD22 routes reached US$48,193 and US$45,029 per day, respectively. On the whole, the VLCC freight rate has maintained a high level in November since the bottom ** in October, and the traditional peak season** has been fully opened, but there is still a gap between the freight rate and the same period last year. On the demand side, in November 2023, Clarksons raised the growth rate of *** demand (tons of nautical miles) in 2023 by 70% (previous value was 6.)2%), and the growth rate for 2024 and 2025 will be revised down, respectively7% (previous values were ..)4%);On the supply side, as of the end of November, the growth rate of ** ship capacity in 2023 and 2025 will be ., respectively5%, of which the VLCC capacity growth rate is .5%、-0.1%;From this, the difference between supply and demand in 23-25 years is -49%、-3.7%、-2.1%, the improvement of supply and demand relationship has strong certainty, and the freight rate center is expected to continue to increase.
Container shipping market tracking and freight rate outlook in November
The average value of the SCFI index in November was 1,023 points, an increase of 87%, down 264%。In terms of routes, the average freight rate of the European route was 741 US dollars TEU, an increase of 16 from the previous month3%, the average freight rate of the US-West route was $1,817 FEU, an increase of 10%;The average freight rate of the US East trade route was $2,364 FEU, an increase of 45%。On the whole, the freight rates of the main routes in November were seasonal, of which the European route increased the most significantly, mainly due to the price increase plan promoted by the company for the long-term agreement negotiation of the European route at the end of the year and the price increase in the peak season starting in DecemberAlthough the actual booking price of the European line is at a certain discount compared with the plan** (the plans of various shipping companies** are generally raised to more than 900 US dollars TEU), it has also driven the European freight rate to rise significantly in the short term. In the short term, the peak season of December and January is expected to continue to support the market, and shipping companies have also announced price increase plans in December and January, but it is still necessary to pay attention to the actual market acceptance. In the long run, weak import demand in Europe and the United States and the continuous increase in a large amount of capacity are still the main contradictions, and the pattern of oversupply will continue to be maintained.
Dry bulk transportation market tracking and freight rate outlook in November
The average BDI index in November was 1,831 points, down 1. month-on-month9%, a year-on-year increase of 410%。In terms of ship type, the average BCI was 2,894 points, down 6. month-on-month1%;The average BPI was 1,766 points, 9 from the previous month8%;The average BSI was 1,195 points, down 41%。In terms of cargo types, the average sea freight of iron ore from Brazil, Western Australia to China in November was ., respectively1 US dollar ton, down from the previous month9%;The average sea freight of coal from Indonesia, Australia to China is .$7 tons, down month-on-month3%。In the short term, the relay growth of iron ore and coal pallets in November drove the dry bulk market to become stronger at the end of the month and continued into early December, with BDI continuing to break through new highs for the yearWith the year-end Christmas and Spring Festival holidays approaching, resulting in a decline in freight demand, freight rates are expected to fall significantly. In the long run, on the supply side, the growth rate of static capacity is at a low level, but the continued low capacity in Hong Kong makes the dynamic supply slightly looseOn the demand side, there is still uncertainty in the demand for dry bulk transportation in the context of a weak global macroeconomyClarksons expects supply growth to remain slightly faster than demand growth in 2024, and the supply-demand relationship is expected to improve significantly in 2025.
Risk Analysis:The sharp macroeconomic downturn has affected shipping demand;The large fluctuation of oil exchange affects the supply and demand of oil transportation and the cost of shipping companiesGeopolitical conflicts affect shipping supply and demand;shipping supply rose more than expected, etc.