Affected by factors such as the off-season of production in some basic raw material industries, the manufacturing PMI in December was again below the boom and wither line.
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on December 31 showed that the manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 49 in December0%, down 04 percentage points;The non-manufacturing business activity index was 504%, up 02 percentage points;The composite PMI output index is 503%, a slight decrease of 0 from the previous month1 percentage point.
Zhang Liqun, a special analyst at the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, said that the PMI index continued to decline below the boom and wither line in December, indicating that the downward pressure on the economy has increased. The index of new orders and new export orders continued to decline under the line of prosperity and withering, reflecting the proportion of enterprises with insufficient demand reaching 6076%, a further increase from the previous month, and the problem of demand contraction is more prominent. Affected by it, the production index, purchase volume index, and finished product inventory index all continued to decline, indicating that the production and business activities of enterprises showed a convergence trend.
Zhang Liqun stressed that it is necessary to attach great importance to the development trend of demand contraction, pay special attention to the role of its self-acceleration mechanism, accelerate the improvement of macroeconomic policy counter-cyclical adjustment, especially to vigorously strengthen the leading role of investment in enterprise production and investment, reverse the self-acceleration trend of demand contraction as soon as possible, and significantly boost the driving force of economic recovery.
The decline in external demand has led to tight demand in the manufacturing industry.
From the perspective of production, in December, with the support of the stable operation of China's ** chain, the production activities of manufacturing enterprises remained relatively stable, with a production index of 502%, although it decreased by 05 percentage points, which remained above 50% and ran in the expansion range for 7 consecutive months.
From the demand side, the decline in external demand has led to the overall tightening of the manufacturing market demand, and the new orders index is 487%, down 07 percentage points, the manufacturing market demand is weak. The proportion of manufacturing enterprises reflecting insufficient market demand is 608%, up 02 percentage points, rising for three consecutive months, the current momentum of China's economic rebound is weak.
Wen Tao, an expert from China Logistics Information Center, said that exports fell significantly due to the seasonal impact, and the contraction of foreign market demand in December was more prominent, due to the seasonal slowdown in the European and American consumer markets, the increased pressure on major foreign economies and the tense situation in the Red Sea, the export demand of manufacturing enterprises has decreased, and the new export orders index was 458%, down 05 percentage points, the lowest level since 2023.
Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, also mentioned that from a global perspective, the manufacturing industry in major economies such as Europe and the United States has continued to contract since the beginning of this year, and the preliminary manufacturing PMI of the United States and the euro area in December was 482% and 442%。At present, the complexity, severity and uncertainty of the external environment are rising, and some enterprises reflect that the reduction of overseas orders and the lack of effective domestic demand are the main difficulties faced by enterprises.
* In terms of raw materials, the difference between the index of raw materials and finished products** has widened. Wen Tao analysis, in December, due to the tension in the Red Sea, the impact of the global chain, resulting in a certain degree of international blockage, the international commodity market plus the active economic stabilization policy to boost market confidence, the front end of the industrial chain responded quickly. China's manufacturing raw materials are still rising faster in the case of shrinking purchases, and the purchase index is 515%, up 08 percentage points, ending a two-month downward trend. However, product sales have accelerated their decline due to the weak demand side, and the factory ** index is 477%, down 05 percentage points. In comparison, the difference between the index of raw materials and finished products in the manufacturing industry has widened.
The economy is expected to pick up in 2024.
Looking back at 2023, the annual average of manufacturing PMI is 499%, which is 08 percentage points. Judging from the trend of the index during the year, the manufacturing PMI ran at a good level of more than 50% in the first quarter, and the economy recovered rapidly after the impact of the epidemic subsided, and the index fell quickly in the second quarter, showing that the economic recovery momentum slowed down after the rapid release of pent-up demand, and the average index in the third and fourth quarters was 49At the level of about 5%, the endogenous driving force of economic recovery still needs to be strengthened.
Wen Tao said that looking forward to 2024, China's economy may still face a period of insufficient demand and weak momentum. It will still take time for domestic demand to be fully released, and exports will face downward pressure under the pressure of the global economy and structural changes in the international ** chain. However, the foundation for the good operation of the economy is relatively solid, and China has a solid super-large-scale market and strong production capacity advantages, which is still a vital part of the global first-chain value chain. Various policies and measures to stabilize the economy, promote growth, and optimize the structure have continued to achieve results.
He stressed that the market expectation is stable and improving, and the production and business activity expectation index in December was 559%, rising for three consecutive months, and the average value of the production and business activity expectation index in the second half of 2023 is higher than the average of the first half of the year and the average of the second half of 2022, indicating that business confidence continues to improve. With the full implementation of promoting the development of scientific and technological innovation, focusing on expanding domestic demand, promoting the development of the private economy, and expanding high-level opening-up, the economy is expected to continue to pick up in 2024.
Liu Aihua, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, said in response to a question from the first financial reporter at a press conference of the State Council Information Office a few days ago that the recent decline in manufacturing PMI is related to the fact that some manufacturing industries have entered the traditional off-season and the lack of market demand. In the next stage, it is necessary to organically combine the expansion of domestic demand with the deepening of supply-side structural reform, promote industrial upgrading and development with scientific and technological innovation, lead new demand with high-quality supply, and promote the manufacturing industry to achieve higher-quality development.