Recently, the IMF (International Monetary Organization) released a new issue of **, the size of the global economy will exceed the $100 trillion mark in 2023, reaching 105$27 trillion. In 2023, the U.S. GDP will reach 26$85 trillion, while Japan's GDP will reach 4$41 trillion. Germany's GDP431 trillion US dollars, India's GDP is more than 374 trillion dollars. The total GDP of our country will reach 19$37 trillion.
Let's start with the United States. IMF** US GDP will exceed 26 in 202385 trillion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 1At $38 trillion, U.S. GDP will grow by 16%。Such economic data should be among the best among developed countries. There are two main reasons why the GDP performance of the United States this year is quite good:
First, inflation in the United States has remained high, with GDP reaching 37%。And domestic prices in the United States continue to be **. This also means that the American people will have to spend more money on consumption. As a result, US consumption data has increased significantly, which has pushed up the size of US GDP.
Second, since the beginning of this year, the Federal Reserve has continued to raise interest rates, resulting in the US dollar index continuing to rise, while other non-US currencies have continued to depreciate. When calculating the GDP of major economies, everyone uses the US dollar as the unit of measurement. This requires countries to convert their GDP data into US dollar GDP in their own currencies. Obviously, in the case of the appreciation of the dollar and the depreciation of other currencies, the United States also has a certain advantage in terms of GDP scale.
Moving on to Japan, the IMF** will reach 4 percent of Japan's GDP this year41 trillion US dollars, and said that Japan's GDP has been 4With fluctuations around $5 trillion, it is already difficult to break through the $5 trillion mark. There are also two reasons for the slow growth of Japan's GDP
One is that Japan has entered an "aging, declining birthrate" society, the elderly are unwilling to consume, the number of young people is limited, and the demand for consumption is not high. Clearly, weak consumption and investment are the main reasons for the continued sluggishness of the Japanese economy. The other is that the yen has continued to depreciate against the US dollar this year, which has also lowered the actual size of Japan's GDP to a certain extent.
After talking about Japan, the third largest economy, let's talk about Germany, the fourth largest economy in the world. Germany's GDP has experienced negative growth this year. According to the IMF**, Germany's GDP will show negative growth this year, reaching 4$31 trillion.
In fact, the main reason for the downturn in the German economy is the Russian-Ukrainian war, because the Russian-Ukrainian war has caused Germany's imports of energy and raw materials to rise sharply, which will cause the cost of German manufacturing to continue to rise, and the demand for manufacturing investment has declined across the board. According to the data, the German PMI (manufacturing purchasing managers' index) in November this year was 423. It is well below the 50 level of the withering line.
India, on the other hand, has the fastest year-on-year GDP growth in the world. According to the IMF**, India's GDP will grow by 59%, up to 374 trillion dollars. The rapid growth of India's GDP is mainly due to the large number of foreign companies moving manufacturing to India. In the third quarter of this year alone, the manufacturing sector contributed 14 per cent to the Indian economy.
At the same time, India has a relatively high proportion of young people, and its economic growth also depends on the demographic dividend. Of course, when India counts GDP growth, it will still be somewhat mixed with some water. For example, building a thatched house is also counted in GDP. From an objective point of view, the potential for India's economic growth in the future is still relatively large.
Finally, let's talk about China, according to the IMF**, China's GDP growth will reach 52%, the total GDP will reach 19$37 trillion. It should be said that this year, after China relaxed the epidemic control, the economy immediately showed recovery growth, which also means that China's economy itself has strong stamina and recovery ability.
In fact, the size of China's GDP is likely to be underestimated this year, mainly because the dollar index has consolidated at a high level this year, and the RMB exchange rate has continued to depreciate, resulting in an underestimation of China's calculated RMB-denominated GDP into dollar-denominated GDP. However, as the Fed pauses interest rate hikes next year, the dollar index begins to retreat, and domestic inflationary pressures in the United States have declined. The GDP gap between China and the United States is likely to narrow further in 2024.