Commercial aerospace builds satellite gigafactories
When we look up at the starry sky, in addition to the endless stars, it may also be a "starlink" strung together by hundreds of SpaceX commercial satellites.
As a benchmark for the operation of the global commercial satellite constellation, SpaceX has successfully launched nearly 900 small low-Earth orbit satellites, and the global plan of "Starlink" is gradually being realized. Compared with SpaceX, China's commercial aerospace started a little later, but it also has its own "Starlink" plan in the field of satellite communications focusing on the earth's low orbit.
Commercial aerospace has entered a period of vigorous development.
China has always attached great importance to the development of commercial aerospace. As early as April 2020, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) made it clear that satellite Internet was included in the scope of new infrastructure. The "14th Five-Year Plan" points out that it is necessary to build a high-speed ubiquitous, space-ground integration, integrated and interconnected, safe and efficient information infrastructure, and build a global coverage and efficient operation of the space infrastructure system for communication, navigation and remote sensing. At present, China has released a number of large-scale satellite Internet constellation plans.
Entering 2023, China's commercial aerospace has opened the "hurricane" mode
In the field of rockets, in April, Tianlong-2 was successfully put into orbit;In July, China's liquid oxygen methane rocket Suzaku 2 successfully made its first flight in the worldIn November, the Hyperbola-2 verification rocket mission was a complete successIn December, after nine consecutive victories in Ceres-1 Y9, the company successfully carried out the ...... of the morning and dusk orbit launch mission for the first time
In the field of commercial satellites, the construction of satellite Internet has risen to a national strategic project, becoming an important part of China's space-air-ground integrated information system, in August, Huawei Mate 60 Pro exploded in the technology circle, followed by new energy vehicles and mobile phone manufacturers have also chosen to "boost satellite communication equipment into the mass consumer end......
Hou Bing, director of the forward-looking laboratory of the commercial aerospace company Shikong Daoyu, told reporters that at present, domestic commercial aerospace enterprises have made efforts in all aspects of the research and development, manufacturing, launch and operation of launch vehicles and satellites, and even completed their own commercial closed loop with the innovative model of the whole industry chain layout, providing strong support for China's own "Starlink" plan.
Reducing costs and increasing efficiency is the key to commercialization.
Starlink" is global, and the R&D, manufacturing and orbit of satellites are only the first step.
According to the Blue Book of China's Aerospace Science and Technology Activities (2022), China completed 64 launch missions and developed and launched 188 spacecraft in 2022. Industry data believe that 100,000 satellites are expected to be deployed in low earth orbit in the future, and China has 3-40,000 occupancy, while the annual production capacity of domestic commercial satellites is still 90% short.
In the field of satellite manufacturing, production capacity is closely related to manufacturing costs. Traditional satellite manufacturing is a single manufacturing, which is used in specific fields, and is costly in testing, components, manufacturing, etc. Hou Bing said that China's satellite manufacturing has long relied on the national team, with a long development cycle, high production costs, and low mass production capacity, which restricts the development of the satellite industry chain to a certain extent. At present, the production capacity of OneWeb in Europe is an average of 8 pieces per week, and the future goal is to produce 2 pieces a day, while the production capacity of SpaceX's satellite factory in Redmond has reached 120 pieces per month.
Mass production means lower costs, and this law also applies to the commercial aerospace sector. It is understood that through low-cost, highly reliable satellites and first-chain products, Daoyu has realized one-stop in-orbit delivery from satellite development to satellite mass production AIT (** integration test), and at the same time, it has also combined the satellite manufacturing production line and development concept with the R&D and production experience of the automotive industry to create a satellite super factory that breaks through the capacity limitations of traditional satellite manufacturing, reducing the production cost of satellites by 45% at the same time, and also forming the ability to achieve 1 satellite per day.
Hou Bing believes that through large-scale and mass production of satellites, while reducing the cost of satellite manufacturing, it also creates a foundation for low-cost satellite application services, which will help promote China's satellite manufacturing into the era of industrial large-scale production.
However, Zhou Xin, deputy general manager of the commercial aerospace enterprise Micro-Nano Star, reminded that China's commercial aerospace is currently in a rapid and upward development range, but there is still a certain distance to reach a stable development stage. "At present, enterprises in the industry must correctly face the test of a series of conditions from product maturity to whether the business closed loop can run through. ”
Zhou Xin said that from a macro perspective, the supply and demand ends of commercial aerospace are still in the stage of "convergence", and it will take time to achieve a closed loop. "However, in the micro field, some commercial aerospace tracks have formed a commercial closed loop, such as component production, chip research and development and other fields have generally achieved breakeven or even profitability. In the next stage, a closed commercial loop will be formed in enterprises specializing in satellite R&D and manufacturing and satellite applications. ”
The layout of the whole industry chain is the trend of the times.
SpaceX's Starlink plans to launch more than 4 satellites20,000, although the current number of satellites in orbit is far from the overall goal, but a few days ago, Musk had announced in a high-profile manner on social ** that "Starlink has achieved cash flow breakeven". Obviously, based on the existing 900 satellites, SpaceX is moving extremely fast in satellite applications, and the commercial closed loop has been formed.
In the field of domestic satellite applications, Spacetime Daoyu has realized the large-scale implementation of satellite application products and services. A few days ago, at the first China International ** Chain Promotion Expo, the world's first "Future Travel Constellation", satellite manufacturing, and core products and application achievements in the field of satellite manufacturing and satellite applications independently developed by Spacetime Daoyu attracted widespread attention as soon as they were unveiled, and the eyes of the industry focused on the development model of its whole industry chain layout.
The industrial chain of commercial aerospace is composed of multiple links, from upstream research and development, launch, to downstream operation and application, almost every link may create a market of 100 billion yuan. From the perspective of commercial value, among these links, ground equipment manufacturing and satellite application and operation account for a high proportion of the market size, and they are the first commercial aerospace links to be commercialized. In order to translate the imaginable space into reality, the integration of the entire industry chain is extremely critical to improving business efficiency. This requires commercial aerospace to promote the transformation of satellite manufacturing from "customized development" to "mass production", and the intensive launch of satellites will also drive the development of rocket launches in the direction of high reliability, low cost and flexible launch.
The layout of the whole industry chain is one of the development trends in the field of commercial aerospace. Zhou Xin said that commercial aerospace will of course be subdivided into more fields. Some enterprises that are deeply engaged in the subdivision field can still survive and will live well, but no matter which model, it is not easy to run through the chain of the industrial chain from the early supply to the later use, and then to the return of funds.
Hou Bing's view is more optimistic, he believes that the domestic commercial aerospace industry system and market system have been initially formed, "through close cooperation with upstream and downstream partners in the industrial chain, some domestic commercial satellite companies have built a complete satellite manufacturing and application industry chain, and are forming an efficient and stable industrial ecosystem." ”
*From: Popular Science Times.