From: Yuanda Information Research Institute.
Analyst: Shi Weilong.
Practice registration number: A0190523050007
Release date: December 21, 2023.
The Fed's current round of interest rate hikes may be over, and 2024 is expected to start a rate cut cycle, ** is expected to continue to rise
Bullet point:
The U.S. benchmark interest rate may be at the peak of this tightening cycle, and the rate hike is coming to an end
The Federal Reserve announced its December interest rate decision, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously decided to keep the interest rate range at 525%-5.50%。Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments hinted at a dovish turn in the Fed's monetary policy, suggesting that the US benchmark interest rate may now be at or near the peak of the current tightening cycle. According to the dot plot of the interest rate of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, it is expected to cut interest rates by 75bp in 2024. Gold prices are expected to be catalyzed further**.
Global central bank demand for gold continues to grow
Affected by factors such as the sharp fluctuation of global financial assets, the deterioration of the global geopolitical situation and the high inflation caused by the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the demand for this safe-haven asset by central banks around the world has increased significantly, among which emerging market countries such as Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates in the Middle East are the main gold buyers. Global central bank gold purchase demand in 2022 was 113569 tons, a year-on-year increase of 14524%。
China's central bank has increased its reserves for 13 consecutive months
According to the latest data released on the official website of the People's Bank of China, in November 2023, China increased its holdings by **1182 tons, this is the thirteenth consecutive month that my country has increased its reserves, and as of the end of November 2023, my country's reserves are 2,22639 tons. **It can effectively hedge the financial crisis, ensure economic security, and occupy an irreplaceable position in the national asset reserve.
China is rich in resources, and Shandong Province's mineral gold output ranks first in the country
According to the statistics of the United States Geological Survey, China is the world's largest producer of mineral gold, with about 330 tons of mineral gold production in 2022, accounting for more than 10% of the world's total mineral gold production. According to the data of the "China Yearbook 2023" excerpted from the announcement of Shandong, the top ten provinces in China in 2022 are: Shandong, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Henan, Xinjiang, Anhui, Shaanxi and Sichuan, of which Shandong, Gansu and China have more than 1,000 tons of resources, and the total resources of the above three provinces are 6,72299 tons, accounting for 42 of the country's ** resources56%;* Total reserves 136188 tons, accounting for 43 of the country's best reserves55%。
Yuanda Information ** Institute Recommendations:
The Fed's current interest rate hike cycle may have ended, and the expectation of interest rate cuts in 2024 is heating up, which is expected to be catalyzed**. It is recommended to pay attention to Shandong**, Yintai**, and CICC**.
Risk Warning
The risk of the Fed raising interest rates more than expected;Operational safety production risks;**Risk.
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