Guosheng** pointed out that the Shanghai Composite Index returned to below 3,000 points again on Wednesday, representing a lack of market confidence, and heavyweight stocks led the decline, but the money-making effect was still concentrated on the emotional side, and high-priced stocks remained strong. From a technical point of view, the selling pressure near 3000 points needs to be further consumed, and the finishing ** may continue, the short-term defensive position is 2950 points, and the short-term should focus on the theme and light index, focusing on innovative drugs, medical care, shipping, state-owned enterprise reform and other directions.
China Securities Construction Investment believes that stabilizing social finance will help stabilize economic expectations. Under the guidance of policies, social finance has entered a new normal of stable quantity and high quality. At present, the policy side hopes to smooth the monthly credit increment and reduce the over-interpretation of the economic recovery trend due to high-frequency data fluctuations, so the market should reduce the high expectations for a "good start" next year. As the future economic recovery trend gradually becomes clear, driven by the policy combination, the improvement of credit demand is on the right track, and the stable growth of social finance performance will essentially help the banking sector to further deepen its beta**.
CICC pointed out that in November, new social financing increased slightly year-on-year, loans increased slightly year-on-year, and monetary growth continued to decline. From the demand side, the financing of the ** sector is strong, and the financing of the residential sector is generally flat under the low base, but the financing of the enterprise sector is weak. In the case of the growth rate of social finance, the central increase in the funding rate is mainly due to the slowdown of the base money**. Looking ahead, China's money supply has entered a new stage, the role of credit has declined, and the market may need to adjust the "benchmark" of credit**. Whether it is the amount of financing or the market interest rate of funds, finance may be a key factor.