[Introduction].In the second half of the year, overseas natural rubber production areas were affected by El Niño anomalous phenology, the extension of the rainy season led to the interference of rubber tapping work in the main rubber producing countries, the global natural rubber production period was extended backwards, and the shortage of raw materials was in short supply. Climbed to a year-to-date high.
1.China's imports fell slightly in the second half of the year
**: Longzhong information
In October 2023, China's import volume of natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, cigarette film, primary shape, mixed rubber, and composite rubber) was 50090,000 tons, a decrease of 1 month-on-month79%, the average import price is 1379$86 tons, an increase of 19%。From January to October, the cumulative import was 533750,000 tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of **1166%。As can be seen in the figure above, China's natural rubber imports in the first half of this year were at a high level in recent years, but in the second half of the year, due to the interference of precipitation in the producing areas, the import growth was limited, showing a slight decline. During the year, the seasonal peak production period was delayed by 1-2 months compared with the same period in previous years, the raw material port was in short supply, the raw material purchase bottomed out in the second half of the year, the raw material reserves of upstream factories were insufficient, the production profit inversion suppressed the lack of overseas orders, and the number of exports to China declined.
2.In the second half of the year, the inventory of dark rubber showed an inflection point of destocking
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As of December 10, 2023, the total inventory of bonded and general ** in Qingdao is 67610,000 tons, a decrease of 0970,000 tons, a decrease of 1 month-on-month41%。Bonded area inventory increased by 153% to 11250,000 tons, the general ** inventory decreased by 1 month-on-month97% to 56360,000 tons. Starting from mid-July 2023, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port has begun to show an inflection point of destocking, mainly dark rubber destocking. In the second half of the year, the arrival of Qingdao port standard mixed cargo source continued to show a low state, the upstream finished product inventory was insufficient to delay orders, etc., the market can circulate less imported rubber standard rubber and mixed rubber, with the downstream tire enterprise export order preference, capacity utilization has been maintained at a high level, dark rubber out of the warehouse has improved compared with the first half of the year, driving the dark rubber inventory to show an inflection point.
3.Imported rubber ** began to reverse at a low level in the third quarter
**: Longzhong information
In the first half of 2023, the spot of natural rubber is in the bottom stalemate, mainly due to the suppression of domestic high inventories. Since the beginning of the second half of the year, with the slight decline in China's imports, the inventory of dark rubber in Qingdao Port in China has shown an inflection point, which has boosted market sentiment and driven the spot price of imported rubber to reverse to a high level in the third quarter. However, in the medium and long term, with the end of the overseas rainy season, the global seasonal peak production period will be presented at the end of December or January, when the output of raw materials at the first end will increase significantly, and at the same time, China's natural rubber imports from major overseas producing countries are expected to increase strongly, and the rubber price is still suppressed.