According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2023, the year-on-year increase in newly built commercial residential buildings** in 70 large and medium-sized cities across the country will increase from 43% fell to 21%, up from 04% fell to -0 in December1%；
From this, we can also clearly feel that the house price in 2023 has shown a significant slowdown or even a trend, and under this trend, some experts have made a **;
That is, from next year, 49% of Chinese families may have to face the "3** troubles", please be prepared, let's take a look together.
The property market in 2024 will also be affected by financial policies. According to the central bank, gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2024 will increase from 61% to 58%, the inflation rate (CPI) will increase from 25% to 22%。
This means that in 2024, inflationary pressures will be reduced, but economic growth will slow down, which is a big impact for many Chinese people
Employment pressure increases].
Fewer new jobs: Slowing economic growth may lead companies to reduce expansion and investment, which in turn will reduce new jobs.
Industry adjustments: Some industries may face structural problems, resulting in an imbalance in the job market and a decrease in the demand for talent in certain areas.
Revenue growth has slowed].
Stagnation of wages: Businesses can limit wage increases during economic downturns, causing real wages for employees to be unable to keep up with inflation.
Reduced bonuses and benefits: Companies may reduce bonuses, commissions, and other additional benefits, further impacting the employee's total earnings.
Consumer confidence has declined].
Uncertainty about the future: Economic downturns are often accompanied by uncertainty, and people may be worried about the future and reluctant to spend big.
Increased savings: Faced with uncertainty about employment and income, people may be more inclined to save more than to consume, which can reduce overall consumption levels.
Problem 2: Some prices are rising.
The report released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the consumer consumption index (CPI) in November shows that prices are still rising, and food ** has appeared 112% of **, non-food ** also slightly ** by 04%, pork *** up a staggering 591%；
This series of data has also directly led to a rise in CPI of about 159 percentage points, in fact, without looking at the data, you can also clearly feel that China's price level is rising, and it is easy for prices to rise and difficult to fall, which is almost irreversible;
Rising prices can have a multifaceted impact on the economy and society, but for ordinary people, the impact is the greatest:
Reduced purchasing power].
Decline in real income: If the rate of prices** exceeds the rate of wage growth, the real purchasing power of ordinary people will fall. This can lead to difficulties in meeting the needs of daily life and reducing the quality of life.
Increased basic cost of living: Basic living costs** such as food, housing, health care, and transportation have a direct impact on a family's financial situation.
Inflation brings uncertainty].
Investment and saving impacts: Inflation may reduce people's motivation to save because the purchasing power of money decreases, which may affect the domestic saving and investment climate.
Increased uncertainty: High inflation rates can lead to increased uncertainty, affecting people's spending decisions and businesses' investment plans.
Increasing social inequality].
Vulnerable groups are more vulnerable: Prices** are likely to have a greater impact on low-income households and vulnerable groups, exacerbating social inequalities.
Education and health costs**: Prices often come with increased education and health costs, which can make it difficult for some families to afford the related expenses.
Trouble 3: It is more difficult to invest and manage money.
The two biggest reasons why the real estate market was so hot ten years ago were appreciation, and deformation.
Appreciation (asset appreciation):
Investment value: Real estate is often considered a relatively stable long-term investment because it is expected to appreciate in value over time. In times of prosperity, people value the investment value of real estate and expect to increase their wealth through real estate investment.
Demand exceeds supply: In some regions, especially in economically developed cities, demand exceeds supply, leading to housing prices**. Factors such as urbanization, population growth, and increasing employment opportunities have all stimulated the demand for the real estate market.
Metamorphosis (speculation and speculation):
Speculative enthusiasm: The real estate market attracts a lot of speculative capital, and many people are looking to buy and sell quickly to achieve high returns in the short term. This speculative behavior makes the market** driven by speculative demand rather than real demand.
Speculation atmosphere: In some areas, an atmosphere of speculation has formed, and people have poured into the real estate market, expecting to be able to make profits from housing prices in a short period of time. This psychological expectation has further fueled the market's popularity.
Now that real estate has entered the buying market, it is difficult to achieve asset appreciation by buying a house, and this change will directly affect nearly 40% of families in China
According to the data, nearly 49% of households own two properties. These families are planning to turn things around by using their second-hand properties, and the difficulties they face will be even more severe, and in the past, many investors have adopted a "combination of property rental and loan" strategy, by renting out excess properties, obtaining rental income, and then using the rent to repay the mortgage, which is now difficult.
When rental income struggles to cover mortgage expenses, here are some of the factors that can lead to this:
Fluctuations in the rental market: Rent levels are affected by a variety of factors such as market supply and demand, regional development, and so on. If the rent level falls, the rental income that would otherwise be used to pay off the mortgage may not be enough to cover the loan expenses.
Rising mortgage rates: If mortgage rates rise, mortgage expenses will increase, which can cause a repayment plan based on rental income to become less practical.
Market Regulation Policies: * Restrictive market regulation policies, such as purchase restrictions, loan restrictions, etc., may be introduced, which may lead to a decrease in home buyers, which will affect the rental market.
Recession: In a recession, the job market is unstable, tenants may decrease, and the rental market is under downward pressure, putting investors at risk of unstable rental income.
For investors, it may be necessary to consider adjusting their financial planning and investment strategies to adapt to the changing market environment, and some possible responses include:
Diversification: Consider diversifying your money across different types of assets to reduce your dependence on the real estate market.
Prudent Loan Management: Manage your loans carefully to ensure you have enough liquidity to cover your mortgage expenses, even if rental income decreases.
Pay attention to market changes: Continue to pay attention to the changes in the real estate market and the rental market, and make corresponding adjustments and decisions in a timely manner.
the end——