China-Singapore Jingwei, December 20 Topic: "New consumption" related to culture and social networking will become a new growth point.
Author: Dong Qi, Chief Macro Analyst of Guotai Junan Research Institute.
In 2023, driven by factors such as income growth differentiation, new characteristics such as parity consumption will emerge. It is expected that in 2024, the focus of consumption will be on mass consumption driven by the increase in fiscal expenditure, as well as the "new consumption" of young people with spiritual, social and cultural attributes.
Since 2023, from the perspective of income, consumption has been stratified, and parity consumption has risen. The market's efforts to repair residents' income are obviously underestimated, and in fact, the growth rate of residents' income in the first three quarters has come to 59%。However, the structural differentiation is worth paying attention to: the recovery rate of rural residents' income is faster than that of urban residents, mainly due to the acceleration of transfer payments to rural residents and the establishment of income expectationsIn addition, the boom in infrastructure and service industries has provided some support for the employment of migrant workers. The differentiation of income-side structure will reshape residents' consumption behavior in a long period of time. In other words, the cost-effective consumption boom in 2023 may continue.
From the perspective of saving behavior, the consumption potential still needs to be dredged. The market believes that there are a lot of precautionary savings of residents, which is reflected in the fact that the growth rate of deposits is still at a historical high, but the high growth of residents' deposits is mainly reflected in time deposits, which is essentially the coexistence of high savings (insufficient willingness to buy a house) and low savings rate (not low willingness to consume). So the question now is: how to further stimulate residents' compensatory consumption. The first is to continue to stabilize residents' income expectations, and the second is to find new growth points for residents' wealth in addition to real estate.
What are the directions and highlights to support consumption in 2024?First, the consumption of spiritual, social, and cultural services (games, concerts, film festivals, etc.) will remain strong. In fact, the "new consumption" driven by the young people of the post-95s and post-00s has become a wave and a new growth point. Second, it will increase people's livelihood expenditure, directly support total consumption, and indirectly drive household consumption (daily necessities, affordable clothing, mass food, etc.). In 2024, the expectations of the fiscal should pay more attention to the people's livelihood expenditure, which will be further strengthened and the social security net will be built, which is an important prerequisite for residents to dare to consume.
In the long run, the bottom of the household consumption rate and the peak of the investment rate actually appeared in 2010, and then the trend reversed the upward trend of the consumption rate, but the "monetization of shantytown reform" affected the upward trend of the household consumption rate. It is believed that under the triple role of affordable housing and urban villages, deleveraging of residents, and heavy financial security, the consumption rate of residents will resume an upward trend, and the national economy will develop in a more balanced direction. (Zhongxin Jingwei app).
This article is selected and edited by the Sino-Singapore Jingwei Research Institute, and the works produced by the selection are all rights reserved, and no unit or individual may use it in any other way without written authorization. The views involved in the selected content only represent those of the original author and do not necessarily represent the views of Sino-Singapore Jingwei.
Editor in charge: Zhang Zhihan.
For more exciting content, please pay attention to the official WeChat of JWVIEW***