In the past week, the international *** has once again stood above $2,000 an ounce and broken through the high level this year.
Wind data shows that as of December 1, COMEX intraday once reached 20957 US dollars ounce, final** in 2091$7 an ounce, a new all-time record. Spot **as of** reported 2071$29 an ounce, also approaching 2079 on May 4 of this year$37 oz most**.
For the market performance, industry insiders believe that the current market is still following the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts. Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the financial market department of Everbright Bank, said that the current market relies more on data guidance, and it is necessary to guard against the impact of unexpected fluctuations in data when the economic and inflation outlook is still uncertain. At the same time, Zhou Maohua reminded that the current situation is at a historical high, and ordinary investors need to guard against potential volatility risks.
The international *** broke through a new high this year
International gold prices are usually affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts and overseas macro fundamentals. The reporter of "Daily Economic News" noted that since mid-November, comex*** has begun to strengthen, from November 13 to 1935$6 oz**, and broke through the highs of the year.
Zhou Maohua believes that the recent rise in the international market is mainly started in mid-November, and it is the simultaneous start of commodities such as **, bond market, and **.
Obviously, it is the sharp loosening of financial conditions, mainly due to the announcement of employment in the United States in November, inflation unexpectedly 'upset' triggered the market to bet on interest rate cuts next year, U.S. bond interest rates and the dollar have suffered a heavy setback, and U.S. financial conditions have sharply loosened from the previous few months, driving financial assets generally**. In particular, the overall economic data in recent days has been mixed, with energy falling and some Federal Reserve making statements, which has boosted this easing sentiment. Zhou Maohua said that it is obvious that the market always reacts in advance, and the market is currently digesting the expectation of interest rate cuts next year in advance.
It is reported that on November 14, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that the U.S. CPI increased by 3% year-on-year in October2%, slightly lower than the market expectation of 33% vs. 37%；The core CPI in October was **4% year-on-year, the lowest since June 2021 and slightly lower than the market expectation of 41% vs. 41%。
The US CPI in October was lower than expected, mainly due to the accelerated decline in energy*** and residential sub-items. In terms of breakdowns, energy items (about 7% weight) increased by -4 year-on-year in October5% (previous value was -0.)5%), which has become an important factor driving the CPI downward.
Wu Weiguang, an analyst at Hehe**, believes that before the CPI is announced, the market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again before February next year is about 30%, and the interest rate will be cut as soon as June next year, and there is a high probability of a 75bp rate cut for the whole of next year. However, after the announcement of the CPI in October, the market expects the probability of another interest rate hike to 0, the probability of the first interest rate cut in May next year is more than 80%, and the probability of a 100bp rate cut for the whole of next year is close to 100%.
The industry reminds ordinary investors to guard against potential volatility risks
In terms of domestic gold prices, due to exchange rate factors, domestic gold prices have not followed the international gold price since November 14**. However, with the stability of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, the domestic and foreign gold benchmark prices have also begun to experience a stage low since November 23, and the price was reported at 474 as of November 3064 grams.
For the international **later stage**, Wu Weiguang said that at present, ** is still following the expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Subsequent US economic data will strengthen this expectation if it weakens further, which will further boost gold prices. If there are signs of an uptick in the subsequent US inflation data, the trend may be interrupted briefly. In addition, if the subsequent US economic data is positive and the Fed makes hawkish remarks, the trend may also be interrupted. In addition, the impact of the geopolitical conflict in December cannot be ignored.
Zhou Maohua believes that the current situation is at a historical high, and ordinary investors need to guard against potential volatility risks. He said that judging from the historical trend, the breakthrough of the first high is directly related to the unprecedented liquidity shock of major central banks in Europe and the United States.
Although the current market response to geopolitical conflicts has been blunted, and major central banks in Europe and the United States are gradually withdrawing from unconventional easing policies, the current geopolitical conflicts are uncertain, especially the advanced economies maintain tightening, and the trend is not clear. Zhou Maohua emphasized that in recent times, the volatility center has risen significantly. At present, the market is more reliant on data guidance, and it is necessary to guard against the impact of unexpected data fluctuations when there is still uncertainty about the economic and inflation outlook.
National Business Daily.