Kunpeng Project
The article is about 2200 words in total, and it is expected to take about 7 minutes.
Historically, only the United States has robbed others, and there is no practice of others getting wool from the United States. With the gradual pause of interest rate hikes in the United States, electronics and semiconductors are gradually beginning to come out of the haze. However, for most semiconductor companies around the world, winter has passed, and spring is gradually coming. But for TSMC, I'm afraid the crisis has just arrived.
TSMC went to the United States to build a factory, and waited for thousands of dollars to wait for the so-called subsidies from the United States, but waited for the new chip regulations of the United States. Is TSMC going to be fooled by the United States again?Can TSMC's capital and technology to build a factory in the United States still be kept?
TSMC may be damaged?
If there is one country that cannot be trusted in the world, I am afraid it is the United States. The front foot is talking about chip subsidies, and the back foot is about to start changing?And all this has already been secretly marked as a bargaining chip.
Recently, the United States announced the relevant chip subsidies, but the subsidy is aimed at a defense contractor in the United States. TSMC, which is loyal to the development of chips in the United States, did not receive the first subsidy, but received a warning.
It also warns that there may be delays in the construction of the fab in the future with Intel. This means that construction progress in the United States will be slowed down by the likes of Intel and Samsung, as well as TSMC, which will inevitably lead to the failure of compensation to be in place.
And Raimondo said the delay was not a day or two, but could be due to years of delay in the environmental review. This is very pitiful for those chip manufacturing companies.
Because we all know that building a chip factory in the United States is inherently not cost-effective, and if it weren't for this so-called chip subsidy, it is estimated that they would not be willing to build. Because we all know that the world's largest electronics manufacturers are concentrated in Asia, and we are the largest.
The construction of chip factories in the United States has undoubtedly increased transportation costs. At the same time, we all know that labor costs and so on in the United States are not cheap. Well, because of the so-called environmental issues, even this subsidy may change due to construction progress and review issues.
It can be said that TSMC has lost its wife and soldiers. And for TSMC, this is not just a matter of loss on paper, but affects the rhythm of TSMC's development, and more important things disrupt TSMC's layout.
We all know that in the process of industrial development, there is an industrial agglomeration effect. However, TSMC has come to a reverse operation, which undoubtedly increases the cost of TSMC and gives other countries more opportunities to send chips.
If in the past few decades, the United States has been the center of the development of the global chip industry, but is it still now?
According to relevant data, we can see that in the 90s, the chip industry in the United States still accounted for nearly 40% of the global share, but now the United States has dropped to about 12%. It can be said that the United States has long been not the center of semiconductor development.
And of these remaining shares, the United States still uses more of its own country. Therefore, TSMC's operation is undoubtedly to abandon the global market to curry favor with the US market. If it is said that when TSMC is invincible, naturally no one can threaten him, but in the future, will TSMC really have no challenger?
And don't forget, the fastest growing place in the world is now in China. And according to the relevant ** report, the chip factories under construction in China now account for about half of the world, and don't forget, the current chip companies have been rolled up, I don't believe you can look at Samsung's data in the past two years, and we haven't heard it for a long time, Samsung is on fire again.
If the United States is harvesting TSMC's wealth, then we may be TSMC's biggest challenger.
Autonomy is the future
In the past, we expected to be able to cooperate and seek common development, but now we are more inclined to be independent.
Since the beginning of this year, we have seen the rapid development of domestic semiconductor companies, and they have made great progress in mature processes. If in the past we were still looking for imports to complete industrial upgrading, now we can do it by ourselves.
Since the beginning of this year, we have seen Huawei's Mate60 come out, which has shocked many people. Perhaps the first thing that many people think of is that Apple has ushered in challenges, but behind Apple's challenges, chip companies have ushered in greater adjustments.
Because we know that Huawei's disappearance in recent years is mainly because the chip was suddenly broken, and it was difficult for the clever woman to cook without rice, so she had to stop production. And now that Huawei is back, it also proves that there is a breakthrough in chips. And even various investigations in the United States have not figured out who actually produced it.
And behind this is the progress of our entire semiconductor industry chain. According to the relevant information of major semiconductor companies in recent years, we can see that China is making breakthroughs in materials, manufacturing and other fields, and the so-called lithography machine may have also broken through in the field of 28nm.
After all, only in this way can Huawei's chips return. And let's not forget that Huawei's sanctions have not been relaxed so far, and mobile phones continue to be sold. If it is said that other companies are OEM and use the equipment of foreign companies, should it have been broken a long time ago?
Therefore, TSMC was deceived by the US authorities on the one hand. It allowed TSMC to invest more money and technology in the ineffective aspects, and at the same time, TSMC also lost major customers and opportunities. After all, for domestic enterprises, who else dares to trust the core to TSMC?
After all, no one is afraid of being suddenly interrupted halfway by the United States. I think many companies are more afraid of sudden death than the reduction in performance and the reduction in profits.
Therefore, enterprises in the future will only leave more orders to domestic enterprises. So on the customer side, TSMC is bound to reduce. At the same time, in terms of the mature 28nm process, it is natural to usher in the crazy involution of the domestic market, which will also cut off part of TSMC's profits.
There is no support from the low end, and at the same time, the high end also loses orders. There is still a rapid catch-up of domestic enterprises behind, and it can only be said that TSMC is still the only chip foundry in the world, and it is estimated that it will not be in the next few years.
And in the near future, foreign companies have started to build their own factories. Qorvo, the RF chip giant, has announced that it will give its factories in Beijing and Texas to Luxshare Precision. And this can also confirm the progress of our chip companies from the side.
Don't forget that they didn't lack business before, and they made a lot of money. And the current sale also proves that its profits are not so high, and it may also face losses. And this will only happen more and more in the future. And in the end, TSMC may also have to face such a situation.
What are your thoughts on this?Welcome to leave a message in the comment area to discuss!
It's not easy to insist on originality, remember to like and follow, and share more exciting content!