ASML, a giant in the global semiconductor industry, sold only three lithography machines in the third quarter. ASML's weak fundamentals are complemented by a gloomy outlook.
What exactly is the reason behind it?
First, of course, the general environment determines supply and demand, and our so-called chip destocking cycle may not be as smooth as imagined. In the case of high inventory, of course, we will not buy lithography machines to expand production capacity.
Second, due to the bans in the United States and the Netherlands, ASML's Chinese market, which had the fastest growth rate and the most stable demand, was closed. The premise of the development of high-end manufacturing is that there needs to be a huge amount of investment in research and development. If you don't generate revenue, it means that the speed of R&D will slow down, and your competitiveness will be caught up by companies willing to invest in R&D.
In order to solve the impact of the decline in chip equipment shipments, ASML must open up new markets in time and strive for the right to ship chip equipment freely.
However, it is difficult to implement such a decision.
On the other hand, China, as the world's largest chip market, is actually not incapable, but relies on openness to establish market guidelines. However, the style of painting has changed, and it is possible that we are gradually making breakthroughs in some manufacturing fields related to lithography machines.
On the one hand, China has attached great importance to and strongly supported the chip industry, and has introduced a series of policy measures. For example, the establishment of a national integrated circuit industry investment**, encourage innovation and technology research and development, and cultivate outstanding enterprises and talents. On the other hand, China has established a relatively complete chip industry chain, covering multiple links such as design, manufacturing, and packaging. Domestic companies have made certain breakthroughs in these fields, making China's chip industry have a certain ability to innovate independently.
Chart: Sector weighting distribution of the STAR Market 50 Index
*: wind, as of 202312.27 From the perspective of investment, the 50 ETF of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, which has a weight of more than 50% in the semiconductor industry, is the object of incremental funds in the near futureThe most important thing to invest in is to grasp the incremental sectors with high certainty in the next few years.
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