Experts believe that the real estate market is still in the process of bottoming, and as for when it bottoms, it will take a while to observe. The key word for market performance in 2024 is expected to be "moderate improvement".
Hot spots in the property market. Reporter Zhou Xuesong.
2023 is about to pass, 2024 is coming, what is the outlook for the property market?In this regard, a reporter from the China Economic Times recently interviewed a number of relevant persons in charge of real estate companies and experts in the real estate industry. There are clear differences in their predictions for the property market in 2024. Nearly half of the respondents said that they were "optimistic" about the property market next year and "maintain a relatively stable" judgment. Experts expect that the real estate policy will remain loose, the relaxation of purchase and loan restrictions will continue to expand, the mortgage interest rate is expected to fall further, and the financial support policy is expected to continue to exert force.
Nearly half of the respondents are "optimistic" and "stable".
In response to the trend of the property market in 2024, a reporter from the China Economic Times recently conducted a random survey interview. According to the judgment of a number of relevant persons in charge of real estate companies and real estate industry experts interviewed, there are obvious differences in their judgment on the trend of the real estate market in 2024, and nearly half of the respondents hold the view of "optimistic" and "maintaining relative stability".
The relevant person in charge of a real estate company told the China Economic Times reporter that combined with factors such as real estate policy, financial policy and pent-up purchase demand, it is optimistic about the real estate market next year, especially the demand for improvement still needs to be stimulated. At the same time, the relevant person in charge of the real estate company told the China Economic Times reporter that the real estate market is expected to not be too bad next year, but the specific situation depends on the policy.
Liao Qun, a senior researcher at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Chinese University and chief economist of Sino Group, said in an interview with a reporter from the China Economic Times that the real estate market is expected to stabilize in 2024 while rebounding moderately. In the medium to long term, the factors supporting the development of the property market include continuous urbanization, the rise of urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas, the continuous release of improvement demand (old housing renewal), the medium-to-high growth of residents' income, and the urbanization of migrant workers. In the short term, further easing of regulatory policies, low transaction volumes**, a modest economic recovery, a peak and downward trend in U.S. interest rates, and an improvement in U.S.-China relations are all positive for the development of the real estate market.
It is difficult to say whether the property market has bottomed out now. It may be more appropriate to say that the market is bottoming. Of course, the trend of the property market in 2024 depends on whether the regulatory policy can be further relaxed. Liao Qun said.
Chen Jie, director of the Housing and Urban-Rural Development Research Center of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, predicted in an interview with a reporter from the China Economic Times that the real estate market can stabilize in 2024, but it is not easy, and the macro economy needs to continue to rebound. If the macro economy improves soon, the property market is expected to see a small recovery growth, especially in the first-tier and new first-tier cities.
Some experts who did not want to be named said that it is difficult to ** the trend of the property market next year. He believes that it depends on the state of the economy next year. "In any case, the ** period of real estate is over. Ordinary people will become cautious when buying a house. Housing prices are not down, and rigid needs are not met, which is the main contradiction. The expert said.
In an interview with a reporter from the China Economic Times, a real estate expert in Chengdu, who did not want to be named, said that the local real estate market has almost bottomed out. "Judging from the data in Chengdu, the market is still relatively stable, while other third- and fourth-tier cities may have to decline. However, the volume and transaction volume of second-hand houses in Chengdu have basically stabilized. The expert said.
When it comes to the real estate market next year, the expert expects that first-tier cities will gradually stabilize, second-tier cities will be structurally differentiated, and third- and fourth-tier cities may continue to decline. Overall, the real estate market** is likely to decline moderately in 2024 on a modest basis for this year. The main reason is that the pent-up demand of the three-year epidemic has been gradually released, and policies such as purchase restrictions have successively opened up the purchase channel.
A "modest improvement" in the market is expected next year
Ding Zuyu, CEO of E-House Enterprise Group, said in an interview with a reporter from the China Economic Times that the real estate market is still in the process of bottoming, and as for when it bottoms out, it needs to be observed for a while. It is expected that the real estate market in 2024 will be similar to that in 2023, whether it is the transaction volume or **, it is good to maintain the current level, and the expectations cannot be too high.
Wang Xiaochang, chief analyst of Zhuge Data Research Center, analyzed in an interview with a reporter from China Economic Times that 2023 is coming to an end, and according to the current market, it is expected that the real estate market will likely continue to decline this year, and the transaction amount of commercial housing will fall below 13 trillion yuan. The performance of second-hand homes is stronger than that of new homes. During the year, the growth rate of second-hand housing was greater than the growth rate of transactions, and the market "exchanged price for volume", and the housing prices of second-hand houses fell mainly throughout the year.
Looking forward to 2024, Wang Xiaochang expects that with the recent financial policies to frequently support the real estate market, industry funds have improved, and the market volume is expected to rise moderately in 2024, but there is still some pressure, and the market sentiment is difficult to reverse in a short time. From the perspective of market indicators, it is expected that the key word of market performance in 2024 is "moderate improvement".
According to the data of the key 30 cities monitored by CRIC, the transaction area of the property market in November 2023 will be 12.61 million square meters, a year-on-year and month-on-month decline. This is another decline in the property market after the concentrated volume of transactions in October. And the transaction scale in November is still at the lowest level in nearly five years. However, a positive sign is that the cumulative transaction volume in the first 11 months of the key 30 cities increased by 2% year-on-year, which is narrower than the previous 10 months. In terms of cities, the market is still in a slow recovery. Chengdu was the city with the highest transaction scale in the country in the first 11 months, and in November, the transaction area of newly built commercial residential buildings in Chengdu was 1.63 million square meters, an increase of 17% year-on-year and 18% month-on-month.
The above-mentioned Chengdu real estate experts predict that "overall, the transaction volume of the Chengdu real estate market next year may be small." In terms of **, the first-hand house is mainly based on improved products, and the land supply in the past one or two years is mainly in high-quality areas, which may be structural. Due to the large stock of second-hand houses, the new ** continues to be high, and the trend of exchanging price for volume has not changed, and it is expected to continue to decline. The expert said that it is expected that the property market policy will be further relaxed around stabilizing expectations and increasing confidence, and restrictive measures such as finance, taxation, finance (local incentives and subsidies) and purchase restrictions will be optimized in due course.