In 2024, the liquor market may show these new trends!
2023 is about to pass, looking at the development of the liquor industry this year, the concentration of the industry has been further improved, and the trend of "weak recovery and strong differentiation" is obvious, which can be seen from the operation of 20 listed liquor companies in the first three quarters of this year, the top six listed liquor companies account for more than eighty percent of the revenue, and the competition of small and medium-sized liquor companies will be further intensified.
Driven by the strong resonance of the head liquor companies and waist enterprises, the future development of the liquor industry has high certainty, especially since the second half of this year, the introduction of a series of policies to "promote the steady growth of consumption" is very positive. So, what are the highlights of the liquor industry in 2024 to look forward to?
1. Ultra-high-end and high-end: Moutai leads steadily, and the thousand-yuan ** belt breaks the steady state.
Ultra-high-end: Under the price increase, Moutai continues to lead steadily. High-end: The pattern of 1,000 yuan ** belt may break the steady state. This year, there has been a certain decline in 1,000-yuan wines, and second-tier 1,000-yuan wines have shown signs of moving closer to 800 yuan+. Considering the guiding nature of Feitian's price increase, we believe that next year, under the influence of "following the price increase + volume and price control", the competition pattern of Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao will be more complex, and at the same time, the thousand-yuan ** belt may be differentiated, and the wine companies with outstanding management advantages may run out of the batch price gap, and the phenomenon of "falling behind" will also appear at the same time.
2. Sub-high-end and mass ** belt: business margins have improved, and the competition below the mass ** belt has accelerated.
Improvement in sub-high-end demand: The key to business demand is the rapid recovery of economic activity. Since November, with the impact of internal and external factors such as supportive policies and higher-than-expected growth in the third quarter, many international institutions have raised their GDP growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024. It is expected that the marginal recovery of business activities next year is expected to drive the improvement of demand in the sub-high-end ** belt. At the same time, the competition below 300 yuan ** has accelerated to become white-hot.
3. The change of fragrance type: the "eve of the final" of sauce fragrance and the "key year" of fragrance
Since 2019, various soy sauce wine companies have successively opened the road of capacity expansion, combined with the storage and delivery process of soy sauce wine, the production capacity of soy sauce wine will usher in an explosive period around 2025, and the production capacity of soy sauce wine is expected to reach 800,000 kiloliters. In 2024, as the eve of the first stage of the finals, soy sauce wine will usher in the concentration of production capacity, and the first end may usher in new challenges.
Blue and white sprint to the high-end, fragrance ushered in a critical year: we believe that considering the current thousand-yuan product pattern of the top 5 liquor companies, Fenjiu is expected to expand its product structure advantages through the blue and white 30;At the same time, for fragrant liquor, it will also change the inherent impression that "fragrant is difficult to be high-end".
4. Changes in channels: The integration of beer and white brings new changes.
In 2024, the fusion of beer and white is expected to bring new changes: from the perspective of rhythm, China Resources needs to go through a certain cycle from acquisition to entry to internal adjustment and launch of products, and the three wine companies have completed the above process in the past two years, which has increased a certain degree of difficultyFrom the perspective of intensity, China Resources has not been high-ranking this year, and its strategic choices are relatively moderate and orderly, especially in terms of channel integration, focusing on quality and channel feedback. We believe that in 2024, as the economy continues to recover, the company may increase its expenses and the pace of integrationFrom the perspective of the industry, high-line light bottles have been a strategic choice for many wine companies, and the new exploration of beer and white integration is expected to bring new inspiration and choices to the gameplay of this belt.
5. Consumption scenario: The popularity of the banquet market may continue until 2024.
The market believes that with the continuous replenishment of many holidays after the opening up, the demand for banquet wine has been fully digested in 2023.
We believe that the popularity of banquets in 2023 is not entirely due to banquet compensation, for example, the probability of compensation for college banquets and birthday banquets is smaller than that of wedding banquets, and the focus is still on the number of "banquet-friendly people" in that year. Therefore, starting from the population base and considering the demand-side situation of the three major scenarios of banquets (wedding banquets, birthday banquets, and college banquets), it is expected that the popularity of banquets will continue in 2024.