Global inflation appears to be coming to an end, with November inflation data unexpectedly lower than expected in many countries. In the midst of the exciting news, we seem to see hope for price stability.
Recently, a series of data showed that in October, inflation data in many countries were lower than expected, significantly lower than the peak at the beginning of the year. Eurozone inflation data fell to 24%, well below 10A peak of 6%, a decline that exceeded the market consensus. In addition, inflation data in the United Kingdom, the United States, Mexico, Australia and other places were also lower than market expectations.
Even more surprisingly, this trend continued in November. According to the latest data, 78% of the figures are below **, for example, Italy's inflation rate unexpectedly fell to 0 in November7%, well below the ECB's target of 2%. Belgium has also experienced deflation for two consecutive months.
Kamil Kovar, senior economist at Moody's Analytics, noted that people may soon talk about inflation being too low, not too high. Since last year, policymakers have raised inflation upwards one after another against the backdrop of inflation exceeding expectations**. The Bank of England, for example, has adjusted its average inflation forecast for the last quarter of 2024 in several monetary policy reports over the past two years. In August 2022, this ** value was 14%；In February of this year, this value was raised to 21%；In the latest report in November, this value was further revised upwards to 34%。
Some economists believe that the central bank may also stick to a policy of high interest rates for some time. The reason is that they remain concerned about strong wage pressures and do not want financing conditions to ease prematurely.
The cooling of global inflation may bring some relief to consumers and businesses, but central banks still need to be alert to possible risks. Although inflation data has eased, factors such as wage pressures and financing conditions could still pose a threat to price stability. Therefore, central banks need to find a balance between maintaining price stability and promoting economic growth.
The cooling of global inflation has brought a breath of fresh air to the world economy. However, we should not take this lightly. Central banks need to keep a close eye on price dynamics and take appropriate measures to maintain price stability and promote economic growth. In this time full of challenges and opportunities, let us look forward to more good news.
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