Reporter: Ma Chuanmao, Li Yingchao, Zhang Yanfen, Xie Zhongxiang, Huang Yulin.
In 2023, the wind is high and the waves are urgent.
This is a year of recovery, but also a year of change. The macroeconomic and financial environment is changing rapidly, and the economic recovery requires the financial industry to continue to reduce fees and make profits, and the transformation of the economic structure and the decline in the return on assets have deeply troubled bankers.
As far as the banking industry is concerned, the past business model is no longer sustainable, and it is urgent to take the initiative to make adjustments, coordinate development and security, formulate business strategies that adapt to the new policy and economic environment, and open up the value creation chain of "increment-income-efficiency-value-added" to pass through the cycle.
On the occasion of bidding farewell to the old and welcoming the new, the Chinese reporter of the brokerage company has set up this record for the banking industry in 2023 with ten main lines.
Towering trees can't grow in the greenhouse", only in the baptism of wind and rain in the market, can they thrive. The future of China's banking industry lies in the futureThe Financial Work Conference has clearly put forward the goal of "accelerating the construction of a financial power", and established the main tone of high-quality financial development.
The banking industry should consider how to effectively support the overall situation of economic and social development, improve the level of financial services, fight the battle to prevent and resolve major risks, and do a good job in science and technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance.
Start the "defense war" of revenue
In 2023, the "battle to defend the banking industry's revenue" will start again. "The main challenge for banks this year is the challenge of revenue", "the entire banking industry is under great pressure on revenue", "we must go all out to increase revenue and reduce expenditure", ......Bankers are not mined from it.
Similar to the previous year, the revenue challenge in 2023 was mainly due to the shortfall in net interest income growth due to narrowing interest margins. This is reflected not only in the obvious pressure of loan repricing brought about by the decline in the interest rate (LPR) in the loan market last year, but also in the downward pressure brought about by the change in supply and demand under the "asset shortage". On the other hand, the cost of bank liabilities remains rigid.
Among them, affected by the industry-wide narrowing of interest margins, in the first three quarters of 2023, 9 A-share listed joint-stock banks achieved a cumulative net interest income of 8,0838.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 361%, only 3 joint-stock banks maintained positive growth in net interest income.
In order to make up for the shortfall, the banking industry has made efforts at both ends, relying on this year's business increment, that is, by optimizing the asset-liability portfolio, with refined management and effective assessment incentives, to increase asset returns, reduce debt costs, and make up prices with volume to ensure that net interest income is stable and improving.
At the same time, "raising income" has become the unanimous goal of most banks, and credit card, wealth management, consignment sales, custody and other businesses have been particularly grasped. Taking consignment sales as an example, after the implementation of policies such as the reform of public offering fees and the reduction of commission rates in bancassurance channels, banks have actively promoted the transformation of term payment, and insurance and long-term savings products have become the targets of hot promotion.
As the end of the year approaches, this "defense war" has ushered in a positive signal, and the deposit interest rate has ushered in a new round of reduction. According to the research report of Minsheng Bank, the reduction is expected to further improve the current long-term trend of deposits, reduce the overall cost of liabilities of banks, and is expected to drive the flow of deposit funds to the wealth management market.
Looking forward to 2024, many industry insiders believe that "revenue protection" is still a protracted battle, LPR has been on hold for several months, and there is still room for bank capital and negative interest rates to decline in the future. Therefore, how to optimize the asset-liability structure to reduce the cost of debt to the greatest extent, stabilize the interest margin, how to resist the pressure of fee reduction, and promote the stability and improvement of the middle income?It will still be a must-answer question for bank executives next year.
lost".
In 2023, the stock prices of listed banks still have not been able to get out of the downturn. On the one hand, the narrowing of net interest margins across the industry has not been significantly "braked", and on the other hand, it is implied that the market's concerns about credit risk have not eased. Under the pressure of the two major factors, none of the A-share and H-share listed banks were spared, and all of them fell below the net assets per share.
Looking back at the overall trend, bank stocks have also experienced a short "spring". From April to early May this year, under the hype of the concept of "medium and special valuation", some large and medium-sized banks have walked out of a wave of rapid ****, and many ** have reached a new high. However, the good times did not last long, and soon after the rapid surge, the banking sector returned to the journey of "ups and downs", and there was no improvement during the year.
Similar to the A-share banking sector, some H-share listed banks fell even more during the year, and the number of banks that entered the list of "penny stocks" has increased to 6, and 9 ** exceeded 30% during the year, of which Shengjing Bank and Bank of Gansu fell by more than 80% and 60% respectively, and another major feature of these large declines is that the turnover and turnover rate are extremely low.
The "chill" in the banking sector is also reflected in the near-stagnation of the IPO rhythm. Since the implementation of the comprehensive registration system, 10 queuing banks have completed the review of the "lane change" registration system and updated the application materials, and only Chongqing Three Gorges Bank has failed to complete the translation work. At the same time, the list of "reserve army" for bank listing is still growing, and there are news of banks going public in Hong Kong one after another.
The comprehensive "breakdown" of listed bank stocks also impacts the bank's "blood replenishment" process. Listed banks are severely constrained in equity refinancing to replenish capital, and it is more difficult to gain the confidence of market investors under the existing supervision.
In the face of the dilemma, all parties are also actively taking measures to stabilize the stock prices of banks. Combing through the announcements during the year, 6 institutions, including Bank of Xiamen and Bank of Chongqing, disclosed their plans and progress to stabilize stock prices;The "national team" ** Huijin rarely made a move to increase its holdings in the four major state-owned banks, and at least 11 major shareholders or executives of banks "strongly supported" their own **.
Silicon Valley Bank Apocalypse.
In March of this year, the first moment in the banking industry in Europe and the United States touched people's hearts. The 167-year-old Credit Suisse was forced to commit to others, the stock price of Silicon Valley Bank was wiped out overnight after the collapse, and a number of small and medium-sized American banks struggled with life and death, and their future was unknown.
These vivid cases once again demonstrate the fragility and externalities of the financial system, and the importance of risk management as the lifeblood of the financial industry, especially the banking industry, cannot be overemphasized.
Benefiting from the sound fundamentals of China's economy and the prudential supervision at both the macro and micro levels, China's banking industry as a whole is operating very steadily, and all indicators are within the safety line, and the possibility of similar incidents in China is extremely small. It is difficult for risk events in the banking sector in Europe and the United States to be transmitted to China, and will not have a substantial impact on China's financial market. However, the risk management shortcomings reflected by Credit Suisse and Silicon Valley Bank are still worth looking at.
In fact, the domestic banking sector never stops thinking. Miao Jianmin, chairman of China Merchants Bank, stressed at the bank's performance meeting that "risk management capabilities determine how far we can go". He believes that Credit Suisse's dismal departure is due to the failure of risk management, "167 years is far enough, but not far enough".
Wang Zhiheng, president of Everbright Bank, sees the same thing. He said at the results meeting that risks can be operated, compliance must be adhered to, and risk management and compliance management capabilities are the core competitiveness of banks.
The bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank is precisely because it reversed the order of the three basic principles of commercial bank operation: safety, liquidity, and profitability, and paid too much attention to profitability, inevitably ignoring the accumulation of liquidity risks, and seriously lacked risk concentration management, and crises would naturally ensue.
The bottom-line thinking of putting safety and liquidity first is not passive, but an active defense. The lesson of Silicon Valley Bank tells us that the smoother the wind, the more important it is to walk on thin ice, be prepared for danger in times of peace, do enough risk management homework, and thicken the safety cushion to deal with liquidity risks. Only in this way will it be possible to smoothly cross the rapids.
Reform and danger are moving steadily.
Preventing and resolving financial risks is the eternal theme of the financial industry, and the reform of small and medium-sized banks is the top priority. In recent years, "small and medium-sized financial institutions reform risk" frequently appeared in the Politburo meeting, the economic work conference expression, this year this work is into the fast lane.
In 2023, driven by the policy of "one province, one policy", the reform of provincial associations will accelerate the "icebreaking". Liaoning Rural Commercial Bank, Henan Rural Commercial United Bank, and Shanxi Rural Commercial United Bank were inaugurated and opened, and a number of "new trillion banks" were unveiled one after anotherThe establishment of a provincial-level rural commercial bank in Hainan is on the agenda. In addition, Gansu, Xinjiang, Guangxi and other places have made it clear that they will set up rural commercial joint banks, and Sichuan and other places will apply for the establishment of provincial-level rural commercial banks.
Along with the reform of provincial associations, including Shandong, Jiangsu, Hainan, Guizhou, and Hubei, many provincial associations have changed their leaders during the year, and provincial associations in Fujian, Anhui, Jiangxi, Shandong, Gansu and other places have ushered in new directors, and a group of "post-70s" who have been infiltrated in the banking industry for a long time have accelerated their filling.
This year, small and medium-sized banks have gradually become a trend of "huddling together for warmth", which has become an important means to resist risks and consolidate their business foundation. According to incomplete statistics, during the year, more than 20 urban and rural commercial banks initiated an increase in their holdings of village and township banks, of which 8 village and township banks were dissolved due to absorption and merger by the main sponsoring banks. In addition, many places support the establishment of unified legal person rural commercial banks in prefectures and cities, and it is not uncommon for rural commercial banks under their jurisdiction to absorb mergers and invest in shares. Xinjiang Bank promoted the absorption and merger of Korla Bank, becoming the first merger and reorganization case of a city commercial bank this year.
The joint credit report believes that, on the whole, the overall risk level of the financial sector represented by commercial banks is still within the margin of safety, and with the completion of the merger and reorganization, the comprehensive strength of the new bank will be improved, and it will also be able to integrate financial resources in the region more effectively, so as to better serve the local real economy.
It is worth mentioning that during the year, the issuance of special bonds by small and medium-sized banks around the country heated up, with a total issuance scale of more than 200 billion yuan, the highest level in recent years, and a large number of small and medium-sized banks received capital injections, which played a key role in improving the capital strength and risk resistance of small and medium-sized banks.
Fix "trapped in the house".
After experiencing the industry turmoil in 2021, the real estate companies that said goodbye to the "three highs" turned around and fell into a liquidity crisis, and the corporate risks represented by Evergrande became explicit and spread to the industry. This has a profound impact on the financial data of banks, and the risks of real estate-related business have also been repeatedly asked at the performance meetings of listed banks.
The exposure of industry risks has led the banking industry to adopt a more prudent real estate business strategy, and even reduce the scale of its business, focusing on high-quality enterprises, high-quality projects, and key regions, and focusing on existing risks. However, on the whole, the group of listed banks is still experiencing huge valuation pressure in the "supply disruption turmoil" and the explosion of individual real estate companies.
Since August, from departments to localities, the ...... of "recognising housing but not recognising loans", reducing the down payment ratio and housing loan interest rates, lowering the interest rates of existing housing loans, and optimizing the standards of ordinary housingA new round of demand-side support policies have been introduced one after another to better meet the demand for rigid and improved housing by reducing the threshold for buying a house and the tax burden.
At the end of October, the first financial work conference was clearly proposed, to "promote the virtuous cycle of finance and real estate, improve the main supervision system and capital supervision of real estate enterprises, improve the macro-prudential management of real estate finance, meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises of different ownership systems without discrimination, make good use of the policy toolbox according to the city's policies, better support the demand for rigid and improved housing, accelerate the construction of "three major projects" such as affordable housing, and build a new model of real estate development.
This undoubtedly points the way for the next stage of real estate work. A number of commercial banks actively implemented the spirit of the meeting, intensively discussed and investigated with real estate enterprises, increased the lending of private real estate enterprises, and met the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises of different ownership systems with practical actions.
According to the research report of the China Index Research Institute, the policy will still focus on alleviating the financial pressure of real estate enterprises and preventing and controlling risks, financial institutions will continue to increase financial support for real estate enterprises, and implement the policy refinement, and the financing environment of enterprises is expected to continue to improve. The stable financial situation of real estate enterprises is obviously conducive to the banking industry to promote the resolution of risks.
The scale of wealth management has rebounded.
At the beginning of 2023, due to the inertia of the "redemption tide" of the previous year, the overall scale of bank wealth management will still be greatly impactedThe scale of the whole industry has experienced a stable recovery throughout the year, and has basically "recovered lost ground" at the end of the year. The data shows that the balance of most of the top wealth management companies in the market is close to the level at the beginning of the year.
However, due to the limited recovery rate of the scale during the year, the "throne" of bank wealth management in the largest asset management market gave way to public offerings at the end of June. As of the end of October, the scale of ** was stable at 2738 trillion yuan, and the market estimate of bank wealth management gap is small, the follow-up may still be variable.
Splitting the structure of wealth management products, in addition to cash management products continuing to be widely popular, the proportion of fixed income products is also steadily increasing, especially closed-end products that represent long-term stable funds. However, in the context of the poor performance of the equity market, the scale of hybrid products shrank significantly during the year, and the scale of equity products did not improve, still maintaining a very low proportion.
Another positive factor in the wealth management industry comes from pension financial management. In 2023, the personal pension system is on the right track, since the official launch of the first batch of personal pension wealth management products in February, there have been 6 wealth management companies successfully issued personal pension wealth management products, and the number of products has gradually expanded to 23, and the cumulative purchase amount of investors has exceeded 1.2 billion yuan, showing that the construction of the third pillar of pension has begun to show results.
In the context of the slowdown in the growth of the asset management industry, fee reduction and profit concession have also become a major measure to retain customers. Since the beginning of this year, the wave of "volume rate" has swept to bank wealth management, and a number of companies have announced a phased reduction of some wealth management product service rates, and some companies have shouted the slogan of "no management fee if the net value is less than 1".
There are also differences in the industry about fee reductions and concessions. Some executives of wealth management companies believe that when the market is adjusted, the implementation of preferential or exempt rates can strengthen the synergy between the interests of wealth management companies and customers. Some practitioners also said that if the financial management industry, which started early, fights a "first-class war", it will not be conducive to encouraging the long-term development of the industry.
People come and go.
In 2023, the flow of people in the core positions of commercial banks will continue, which can be called the most intensive in history. According to statistics, 39 listed banks experienced "three-long" changes during the year, accounting for 2 3 of the total number of A-share and H-share listed banks, covering all types of banks, among which individual banks changed their "three longs" together. At present, there are still a number of key vacancies in banks.
On the whole, in addition to job transfers and promotions within the bank, the retirement peak under the "63 baby boom" is quite obvious in management positions, and there are not a few people who have stepped down at the end of the year. Among them, a total of 13 top leaders of listed banks have "handed over the baton" due to the regulatory tenure regulations and annual retirement, and a group of "veterans" who have successfully led their banks to achieve the important task of listing have bid farewell to honorably.
At the same time, a new round of "fill-in" is also accelerating. In order to attract more outstanding talents, a number of banks, including Henan Rural Commercial United Bank and Huzhou Bank, have widely issued "hero posts" and openly selected senior management positions such as head office presidents for the whole society.
The upsurge of market-oriented recruitment for banks has also brought new opportunities for business innovation and fintech transformation of banks, and there are countless "auditions" for CIO positions, demonstrating the "thirst for talents" under the bank's efforts to promote digital transformation.
At the time of the replacement of the old and the new, the backbone of the "post-70s" and even the "post-75s" in the bank management is becoming more and more obvious. Especially in the group of urban and rural commercial banks, the "post-80s" have gradually taken the stage to "sing the leading role". According to incomplete statistics, the number of presidents of the head offices of "post-75" listed banks has increased to 13The number one leader of the "post-75" listed banks has increased to 4.
In addition, the anti-corruption campaign in the financial sector has also triggered changes in the senior management of a number of listed banks, which has caused quite a stir. Among them, Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Development Bank, etc., have several headquarter-level executives investigated this year. The anti-corruption of the rural credit system continued to become stricter, and four more people were added to the list of "top leaders" of the provincial association during the year.
Anti-fraud strikes.
As the wave of digitalization swept society, financial fraud cases of telecom networks emerged one after another in 2023. Fraudsters are also eyeing AI technology, and their criminal methods have become more sophisticated. The "heavy blow" against telecommunications fraud became the top priority in the financial industry, especially in consumer protection work, during the year, and various parties, including commercial banks and public security organs, jointly fought against fraud and went all out to "encircle and suppress it."
In 2023, the supporting system for anti-fraud management will be gradually improved, and the "Measures for Joint Disciplinary Action against Telecommunications Network Fraud and Related Violations and Crimes (Draft for Solicitation of Comments)" will be promulgated to clarify the targets of punishment and make the detailed punishment measures public. In the middle of the year, the Internet Finance Association of China also issued an initiative on strengthening the coordination of the Internet finance industry and maintaining the normal order of the industry.
The financial industry has carried out large-scale rectification actions to freeze and seal the accounts involved in the case, and has strengthened the monitoring and early warning of suspicious transactions in banks, payment and other channels, so as to discover and deal with suspicious transactions in a timely manner. In terms of risk control, banks and fintech groups continue to strengthen the update and application of technical means.
Regulators are also frequently publishing content on consumer protection and anti-fraud propaganda, and actively guiding banks and other financial institutions to do a good job of publicity to protect citizens' property security. It can be seen that many commercial banks take the protection of consumer rights and interests as the focus of their work, and protect the legitimate rights and interests of consumers through various measures such as strengthening internal management, improving system construction, and improving service quality.
In the face of increasingly globalized and intelligent black industry gangs, ecological cooperation and joint defense is an inevitable trend in the development of the risk control industry. The industry is also aware that how to share risk information in a trusted environment, how to achieve full-link intelligent risk prevention and control, and enhance industry synergies will be the direction that financial institutions need to continue to explore in the future.
Generative AI is coming.
2023 is destined to be a surging year in the history of artificial intelligence development. Under the detonation of ChatGPT, generative artificial intelligence (AIGC) is expected to become a revolutionary technology that leads the development of artificial intelligence, and the public's perspective is quickly focused.
What excites all walks of life is that AIGC can deeply learn massive data and training, and simulate human thinking patterns to output text, **and even audio**, which provides a new perspective for innovation in all walks of life. The financial industry, with massive financial data and rich application scenarios, is undoubtedly an industry with a high probability of the current large-scale model technology being applied.
Since 2023, many financial institutions and fintech providers have quickly set foot in the application scenarios of large models: in February, banking institutions such as Baixin Bank, Xinwang Bank, China CITIC Bank, Postal Savings Bank, and Industrial Bank have announced that they will access large model platforms such as "Wenxin Yiyan".In March, ABC launched the industry's first self-innovated financial AI model application, chatabc, and ICBC and a number of institutions released a general model ...... for the financial industry
The industry views are relatively consistent, and the application of large model technology in the financial industry will be extensive and profound, such as intelligent customer service, intelligent investment research, intelligent risk control, intelligent marketing, intelligent programmers, etc. In the future, the subversive transformation of financial production efficiency by intelligent finance will also promote intelligent finance to become a more advanced stage of financial industry transformation after Internet finance, financial technology and smart finance.
The development of artificial intelligence technology has become an important strategy in China. However, while seeing the huge potential of the track, the current financial institutions still face limitations in terms of technology, high cost, and talent teams in deploying large-scale model applications. What cannot be ignored is that intelligent financial regulatory problems such as technology ethics, model governance, and data privacy and security will be accompanied by the tide of artificial intelligence technology.
The new capital regulations have been implemented.
In the coming 2024, the banking industry will officially implement the Measures for the Management of Capital of Commercial Banks (hereinafter referred to as the "New Capital Regulations"). The new regulations are a systematic overhaul after a decade, with a total of 350,000 words of text and annexes, and will profoundly inform the future business behavior of the banking industry.
Unlike in 2013, when the Measures for the Management of Capital of Commercial Banks (for Trial Implementation) were implemented against the backdrop of the financial crisis, the banking industry at that time was still in the process of being in the process of share reform, and there was even a six-year transition period for the capital adequacy ratio to meet the standards in order to adapt to the capital measures. In the past 10 years since the implementation of the original capital management measures, banks have gradually diversified their capital replenishment channels, from the issuance of preferred shares and convertible bonds to innovative secondary capital instruments, as well as the issuance of perpetual bonds or special bonds to raise capital.
At present, the overall operating level of the banking industry is no longer what it used to be, and the scale of assets and liabilities, asset quality, various operating indicators and business operations are more high-quality and stable. More importantly, in recent years, there have been new changes in China's economic and financial situation and the risk characteristics of commercial banks.
Referring to the Basel Reform Final Plan, the 2023 New Capital Rules have gone through the release from the Consultation Draft to the Official Draft, reconstructing the rules for measuring risk-weighted assets under Pillar 1, improving and adjusting the supervision and inspection regulations of Pillar 2, and comprehensively improving the standards and content of information disclosure in Pillar 3.
The market is concerned that the new capital regulations calibrate the risk weights of some risks and build a differentiated capital supervision system. Specifically, the new capital regulations are divided into three tiers according to the size and complexity of banks' business, matching different capital supervision schemes.
This means that, under the principle of adhering to the risk-based principle, the new capital regulations guide the asset allocation structure of banks through the adjustment of risk weights, further reduce the compliance costs of banks, greatly stimulate the role of various types of banks, especially small and medium-sized banks, in the financial "living water", and guide banks to better serve the real economy in the long run.
Editor-in-charge: Wang Yunpeng.
Proofreading: Wang Chaoquan.
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