Pig prices are local**, where does the market go?
The uphill and downhill slopes are thick, and suddenly there is an emergency brake, and the market suddenly makes a 180-degree turn, which is really rare.
Yes, there has been talk of corn lately.
At first, the decline in the Northeast slowed down in the past few days, and sporadic companies seemed to retreat, just waiting for new opportunities in the market, believing that the end was near.
But don't you think it's weird? You're just about to settle down, and all of a sudden you start falling down again. This pause is like a brake going off, and then you step on the accelerator and continue to descend.
With heavy snow and rising temperatures, why hasn't the decline of corn in Northeast China stopped?
That's the first question.
The second question, before the fall of Northeast China, no one noticed Shandong and North China, because the high probability thinking is still there, and the market is weak.
But no one could have imagined that Shandong North China directly staged a round of ferocious **, directly falling below 13 yuan, this is not enough, it is still going down.
Who can stand it? Just when the market panicked, people started ** again.
Calculate the time, i.e., in just one week, the corn market in Shandong is 180 degrees opposite to the northeast.
The Northeast region has gradually stabilized to continued to decline, while the Shandong region has gone from a decline to a sudden increase.
Then comes the second question: how high can this Shandong wave get? And for how long?
We must first admit that a more chaotic and bizarre market must have its own logic behind it.
So, let's take a look at the factors behind the Northeast and Shandong corn markets.
First, let's talk about autumn in the Northeast.
In fact, we also mentioned in the previous article that the biggest problem in the Northeast market is that the sales pressure is too large, although the local area has a certain digestion capacity, but this year's market is weak, and the corn harvest is abundant, and the digestion capacity is limited. Therefore, the sales pressure in the Northeast region needs to find a way out.
Exits generally have multiple directions:
One is the southern transportation of grain from the north, that is, the southern sales area; One is the Shandong market and North China entry; And one more is"Heading"Acquisition.
If we realize this, the problem is obvious.
The recent performance of imported corn is very attractive: on the one hand, the number of arrivals continues to grow, on the other hand, the number of arrivals continues to decline, and even the default and return of imported corn can be seen, which is very sufficient.
If we add to this the fact that downstream demand has already been weak this year, so the demand for corn is even weaker, and the pressure on sales is starting to increase.
Secondly, after some time ago, the Shandong part of the country and the Northeast are basically stable, and the grain from the Northeast is unprofitable in the customs, the shipments have decreased, and the local sales pressure has increased.
Third, although the reserve grain has been opened one after another, it is not good-looking, and the breath of the market has not risen, but has become more indifferent like a deflated ball.
Therefore, there is hope that Northeast corn will let go of the last stubbornness and reopen.
However, with the arrival of a new round of cold wave and snowfall, it is expected that the decline of corn in the Northeast is similar, after all, the impact of this round of cold wave is not small, and the duration is not very short, so in the case of reverse logistics blockage, the reduction of corn production is gradually decreasing.
What happened in Shandong?
As we have previously analyzed, the Shandong market has been heavily affected by sentiment, including this recovery.
This wave of ** is ferocious, especially after the disappearance of customs profits, the quantity of corn is bound to decrease to a certain extent.
But the main reason is that this round of cooling and weather changes mainly involves the northern part of Shandong in China. According to the meteorological forecast, there will be heavy snowfall in places such as the central and western parts of Shandong and the Shandong Peninsula, and snowfall will occur in the southwest and other places.
Shandong's response to the market is much more sensitive than that of the Northeast, because the weather is more favorable, and with the previous **, most grain holders have gradually gained confidence in supporting**.
As a result, the number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep processing enterprises in the past two days has also decreased visibly, from more than 1,000 to more than 100.
The volume is reduced and the price is rising, and Shandong corn is naturally **.
To say how long it can rise, because there are two rounds of more obvious rain and snow processes in this round of changing days, so subjective emotions are superimposed on objective weather, and I hope that the best trend of the Shandong market can be maintained for a period of time.
But there is nothing to wait, because this year's corn market is basically playing a clear card, buyers and sellers are very clear, the first two years of ** is already the perfect past tense, this year is mainly to look at the bottom in**.
Therefore, as long as the follow-up logistics remains basically unchanged, the transaction volume will increase again.
In addition, remember that we said before that this year's corn ** is quite complicated, and one of the most prominent features is that the bumps up and down will be very frequent, which of course also includes Shandong, Northeast ** such a large adjustment.
This may be just the beginning, and the subsequent phenomena such as this exchange of ups and downs are often a trick.
So, this year's corn market is playing one"Fast"Word, whether you are selling grain or receiving grain, you must seize the opportunity to seize the time, otherwise, if you hesitate, ** will change again.
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