Introduction: The Russian-Ukrainian war may enter the mode of fighting and talking next, which is a bit of a loss for Russia, because NATO has achieved a new round of eastward expansion, and Russia has only obtained four states in eastern Ukraine.Hello everyone, welcome to today's Tianxia Ping Shuo program.
Russian *** Long Lavrov, he said a lotWestern leaders have already engaged in private talks with him through at least three different channels to end the war in Ukraine。Lavrov said that as long as Moscow's core interests are respected, then Russia is willing to talk, is Ukraine betrayed?
According to Lavrov's claims, some Western powers are increasingly interested in negotiating solutions, but he does not want to reveal the names of many Western leaders at the moment.
But he said that many leaders, including some prominent senior leaders in the West, have signaled through various signals that they are willing to deal with the Ukraine issue and the security issues of Europe and Russia in a peaceful manner.
Lavrov said that Russia is ready to negotiate seriously at any time, and Kiev is the party that is unwilling to negotiate, so Russia has never refused to negotiate, and the responsibility for the failure of the negotiations to take place cannot be borne by Russia.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov: Let's take a look, we have analyzed and said before that since September this year, there has been an obvious change in the attitude of Russia and Ukraine on the battlefield. Both on the side of NATO, and on the side of Russia.
On the NATO side, the newly appointed speaker of the US House of Representatives did not approve the US plan to support Ukraine for the time being, but shelved it. But he declared that as long as Biden can explain his future strategy on Ukraine, then approval is still possible.
Then the British side said,Ukraine should not take Western aid for granted, NATO and the West should be thanked for their assistance.
Some small countries, such as Slovakia, have also made it clear that they will end their support for Ukraine;The former Italian prime minister also euphemistically expressed his interest in the so-called aid to Ukraine in the form of drunken conversations, etc.
The same is true of the Russian side of Russia, which first began with Lavrov's speech at the United Nations and later by Putin, who expressed on many occasions that he was willing to start a dialogue on the Ukrainian issue on the basis of the 1991 borders.
In the just-concluded direct contact with the population, Putin has changed the target of the special military operation from February last yearDemilitarization, denazification, de-NATOIt has become the security of Russia's borders and the defense of the rights and freedoms of Russian citizens
Putin also met with opposition leaders, listened to the opinions and suggestions of opposition leaders, and ended the war, and he also declared that he wanted to reflect on the Russian-Ukrainian war and so on.
The NATO summit so a series of events between NATO and Russia shows that since September this year, the leaders of Russia and NATO are actually very likely to have had a series of contacts in private. It is possible that there has been a certain degree of communication on the general guidelines and lines of some negotiations, and certain results have been achieved, otherwise he would not have released the news.
All parties are also constantly revealing that NATO may use the Ukrainian Minister of Defense to contain Zelensky, and if Zelensky is too tough, it is not impossible for the West to challenge his status through this Minister of Defense.
We have analyzed what the United States has gained, and the United States has been at war since thenGot Sweden and Finland, United StatesIn fact, Ukraine was also included in NATO, he became a de facto member of NATO, and the United States alsoKidnapped Poland in Eastern Europeand other countries.
So in this Russian-Ukrainian war, the United States still got what he wanted.
Schematic diagram of NATO's eastward expansion What Russia wants at the moment, the general opinion of the people is that you have no hope of winning this war, and it is impossible and no longer supports the second round and the third scale of mobilization.
But there is no need to completely abandon the achievements of the past two yearsThe war has come to this point, and the complete abandonment of the gains of the past two years is too high for the Russian people
Therefore, under the existing conditions, conditional negotiations are the desire of Russia. So can Ukraine be called a loser?The same cannot be said either.
Let's combine the logic of the Czech Republic and Slovakia to join NATO and the European Union in two and become moderately developed countries.
For small countries, as long as Ukraine can guarantee the sovereignty of the four eastern regions of Ukraine, even if Russia actually obtains the four eastern regions of Ukraine, or part of the administrative jurisdiction, he will exchange it for a chance to join the European Union or NATO and complete the separation from Russia.
After joining the EU in the future, through twenty or thirty years of efforts, it will become a moderately developed countryWell, in the long run, Ukraine is actually the winning side
NATO Secretary General (left) and the United States ** Biden (right) We have analyzed before, in terms of what small countries are pursuing, it is well-being rather than power. You look at the small countries of the Czech Republic and Slovakia**, you look at the small countries of the Czech Republic and Slovakia**, and it is not good to divide into two countries to join the European Union?Do Czechs and Slovakia have to be together?
The most important thing in a small country is well-being, not powerIsn't Yugoslavia also dissolved, and now we say Montenegro, Croatia, Slovenia, etc., all of which have joined the EU or have become EU candidates.
By joining the EU family, Croatia will have a good economic and social development, and there is no need to forcibly tie it to Serbia.
So when we say a country, it is not necessary for a small country, what is the point of maintaining the sovereign territorial integrity of Yugoslavia, a small country does not seek power and well-being.
At that time, Singapore and Malaysia were also divided into two, and now it is a good thing or a bad thing for SingaporeThat's certainly a good thing, too.
Together with Malaysia**, it is not a good thing for Singapore from the present point of view, you must know that Singapore and Malaysia had the opportunity to be bound together, but then Singapore chose independence. Facts have proved that Singapore was right in choosing an independent approach.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine Photo source: Russian media For Ukraine, he is not a loser, after recognizing his current status as a small country, he has done something and left not, grasping the advantages of sovereignty law and rationality without relaxation, even if Russia occupies the four oblasts in eastern Ukraine and obtains some administrative jurisdiction, it will not affect his accession to the European Union.
If Russia controls part of the administrative power of the four regions of Ukraine, then as long as the de jure sovereignty of the four regions of Ukraine is maintained, it is Ukraine's, and Ukraine will complete the de-Russification of itself by joining the EU and NATO, and build itself into a moderately developed country, just like Poland, Lithuania and other countries.
After two or three decades of hard work to join the European Union, in the EU family, to turn itself into a moderately developed country, then in fact, it is still a winner. So to speakIt cannot be said that because a small country has lost a little territory, you judge it as a failure, can't think so.
Singapore separated from Malaysia, Lithuania from the Soviet Union, Czechoslovakia in two, Croatia and Slovenia gained independence from Yugoslavia, and Croatia and Slovenia gained independence from Yugoslavia.
It's allSmall countries seek well-being through independenceIt is a very positive example and case of turning itself into a developed country in the Middle East and achieving economic and social development.
For small countries, economic development and social stability are the most important things for small countries. Therefore, Ukraine, he should also do something and not do something, that is, if as Zelensky emphasized, the so-called overemphasis on not giving up an inch of land, what could it be?
As we said before, it is possible to fight the Russian-Ukrainian war endlessly, and if you really want to give up an inch of land and take back all your sovereignty, it is possible to do itAs long as the West and NATO provide enough assistance, it will be able to regain its sovereignty, but it will have to fight with Russia endlessly
The third, fourth, and fifth Russian-Ukrainian wars, NATO and the European Union may not dare to accept, he does not dare to accept, a country that has been in the midst of war for a long time.
If you want to become a member of the West and join NATO and the European Union, you must make certain concessions on the issue of administrative power in the four regions of Ukraine.
You can't say anything, and it's impossible for Russia to accept such words. Even if you defeat him this time, he will still have revenge in 10 years and 20 years, so it can't be considered a loss for Ukraine.
The meeting of the foreign ministers of the United States and Russia is not smooth for Russia, Russia must be the loser, because Sweden and Finland were originally neutral countries, he has become a full member of NATO, and he can't offset the fact that Sweden and Finland have joined NATO, and the United States has de facto turned Ukraine into a NATO member.
Russia can't offset the four oblasts of eastern Ukraine, and these four oblasts are only a few areasThe United States got Sweden, Finland and 80% of Ukraine, Russia has also lost its influence in Eastern Europe.
So to speakEven if Russia gains administrative jurisdiction over the four eastern regions of Ukraine, it is strategically the losing side, can only be said to maintain the last face, hold the final bottom line, and not let the efforts of the past two years be completely wasted, that's what it means.
So Russia's defeat in this war, does he have nothing to do, that can only wait for death?Not necessarily, the defeat in this war has highlighted the comprehensive shortcomings of Russia's economy and social and political aspects.
The Russian Army was like the Tsar ** in 1856 when the Crimean War was defeated, but we look at 1860, he launched a comprehensive reform of serfdom, just 4 years after the defeat, he fully learned a lesson, he learned from the pain, and comprehensively began to overthrow the past serfdom and reflect on himself, so Russia later revived.
So what does this thing mean?How do you turn a bad thing into a good thing, just use this thing to make amends, although I lost the war, but I saw my own problems, and I launched a comprehensive reform.
If Putin is re-elected in 2024, he can learn a lesson, comprehensively start economic marketization, political democratization, and move towards a modern economic, political and cultural system, abandon the imperial mentality, and truly move towards modernity.
SoThe defeat in this war is also a kind of remedy for Russia, on the contrary, is a good thing for the long-term development of Russia.
If you are, this war has already been lost strategically, if you declare yourself again, it is the winning side that is deceiving itself, facing Ukraine, in the face of Ukraine with NATO assistance, not cowardly, getting 4 states, declaring yourself victorious as if deceiving yourself, then the country has little future.