This article is written by the charging and swapping practitioner "just a young classmate", authorized **, and shared with you here. Welcome to leave a message at the end of the article to join the discussion.There is no doubt that new energy vehicles are the trend of the times, and as of September 2023, the number of cars in the country is 3300 million, of which 18.21 million new energy vehicles have a penetration rate of 55%, conservatively estimated that in the next 10 years, the number of cars in the country will reach 400 million, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will reach 50%, and the number of new energy vehicles will reach 200 million in 10 years. Supporting the charging infrastructure industry should take advantage of the momentum to flourish, why in the momentum of new energy vehicles, charging infrastructure industry investment operators have fallen into the vortex of war, competition is fierce, return on investment is difficult to say optimistic. So at this stage, can we still invest in the charging infrastructure industry, and if so, what kind of products should we invest in, which cities should we enter, and what kind of scenarios should we lay out?
Before answering these questions, let's start with what exactly do we invest in when we invest in a charging stationEssentially, investing in charging stations is the supporting resources behind them - land and capacitorsThe land for high-quality charging station projects is scarce, and the capacitance supporting the land is also limited, so investing in charging stations is actually a competition for scarce land and limited capacitance.
The crux of the current charging station investment
At present, the crux of charging station investment lies in the fact that we have identified and determined the general trend of the development of new energy vehicles and charging stations, and the funds continue to pile up in the public fast charging piles in the public areas of first- and second-tier cities, coupled with the coercion of third-party drainage platform companies, investment operators have to enter the competition stage actively or passively, market volatility has intensified, and the investment cycle is difficult The lease term is mostly 5 years, and it is difficult to exceed 10 years, and the 5-10 year operation period is difficult to obtain the expected return through the market fluctuation cycle of the public fast charging pile.
Charging infrastructure application scenarios
In the field of Internet marketing, traffic is divided into public domain and private domain traffic, and with reference to this classification, the application scenarios of charging infrastructure can be divided into public domain charging and private domain charging.
(1) Charging in public areas
Public domain charging can be understood as the provision of charging services by investment operators to unspecified vehicle owners in urban public areas or intercity high-speed service areas.
1. Urban public areas
In the above-ground or underground parking lots in relatively open areas of the city, the main characteristics of the current hot scenarios for charging station investment are as follows:
1) Fast charging piles are the mainstay. The service groups mainly include online car-hailing, commercial vehicles and private cars (selfless piles).
2) In a perfectly competitive market, the comprehensive income of LCOE (kWh price difference income + LCOE service fee income) fluctuates with the market, the competition is frequent and fierce, and the cycle is difficult.
2. Intercity high-speed service area
1) At present, the average utilization rate of charging stations is low, showing an obvious tidal effect, and it is difficult to find a long holiday during the Spring Festival or the first week, no one cares about it on weekdays, and the utilization rate is seriously unevenly distributed.
2) The owner just needs to charge, and the comprehensive income of electricity is stable and considerable.
3) At present, the average utilization rate is too low, which makes it difficult to achieve investment profits, and only the State Grid and China Southern Power Grid are currently in the layout.
(2) Private domain charging
Private domain charging can be understood as the provision of charging services by investment operators to specific car owners in relatively private areas. Including but not limited to communities, office buildings, industrial parks, border streets, bus stations, sanitation parking lots and airports. Because it serves a specific group and is less affected by market competition, the average utilization rate and comprehensive income from electricity can be expected, and the cash flow and investment cycle are relatively stableIn addition, in this scenario, the owner usually parks the car for a long time, which is suitable for arranging slow charging piles to reduce the initial investment cost and shorten the investment cycle.
1. Community
1) Private cars are the largest number of new energy vehicles, and the community, especially the old community, has a huge volume of selfless private cars due to the lack of parking space property rights and capacitors, and the community has great charging potential.
2) Slow charging piles and mobile energy storage charging piles are suitable for application scenarios.
2. Office building
The service groups are commercial vehicles and selfless private cars.
3. The service groups of the industrial park are special vehicles in the park (such as transportation vehicles in the logistics park) and private cars with selfless piles.
4. Streets along the border
Slow charging piles are arranged in the parking spaces along the border streets in the old community, aiming to solve the problem of charging difficulties for car owners in the surrounding communities.
Trends in the development of charging infrastructure
As mentioned above, the essence of investment in charging infrastructure is the competition for scarce land and limited capacitance, and the current investment is concentrated in public fast charging piles in public areas of first- and second-tier cities, resulting in homogeneous competition. In order to overcome the above limitations, industry players have begun to differentiate themselves from the technical and commercial levels.
(1) Technical level
Many companies have begun to develop mobile energy storage robots, breaking through the limitations of land and capacitance to a certain extent.
(2) Commercial level
1. Extending to the third and fourth-tier cities, the number of new energy vehicles in the third- and fourth-tier cities started late, and market participants focused on tapping the first- and second-tier cities that started early, and the competition in the third- and fourth-tier cities was not as fierce as the first- and second-tier cities, and most cities were in the development dividend period, with scarce land and limited capacitor resources.
2. Attaching importance to community charging in the field of private domain charging, many participants began to lay out in advance, and developed community charging business through cooperation with community properties to tap the "lazy economy" effect.
3. All localities actively promote the construction of demonstration projects for optical storage, charging and discharging integrated stations.
Charging infrastructure investment recommendationsTo sum up, when investing in charging infrastructure, it is recommended to adopt the strategy of "seizing resources, card slot scenarios, and attaching importance to private domains".
1. Seize resources
Scarce land and limited capacitors need to be preempted in advance, and the term of land use should be locked or extended. Land is an important factor of production, the necessary condition for the success of the charging station lies in the location, if you can have the right to use scarce land and its supporting capacitors for a long time, it is enough to pass through the phased market fluctuation cycle under the general trend of new energy vehicle development. How to have the right to use scarce land and its supporting capacitors for a long time can be implemented from the following aspects:
(1) Consider acquiring land or using its own idle land to develop charging infrastructure such as integrated photovoltaic storage, charging and inspection stations. (2) Consider cooperating with local platform companies, veteran state-owned enterprises and neighborhood offices to revitalize each other's stock of idle land or jointly acquire land, and invest in charging infrastructure such as integrated photovoltaic storage, charging and inspection stations through joint ventures. (3) Consider building an integrated station for optical storage, charging, and inspection with a large area, and use the advantages of the leased area and the demonstration effect of the project to communicate with the property owner (usually the first party) for a lease term of more than 20 years.Second, the card position scene, pay attention to the private domainBecause the private domain serves specific groups, the average utilization rate and comprehensive income of electricity are guaranteed, and the commission and marketing expenses of the third-party platform can be saved, the cash flow is relatively stable, and the investment cycle is short. Consideration can be given to investment in charging infrastructure in community charging piles, office buildings, and industrial parks, and the layout of card slots in advance.
In addition, it is recommended to build an integrated station for optical storage, charging and inspection near office buildings or old residential areas, use private domain groups to cover the lower limit of operation, and at the same time open public domain charging to increase the upper limit of operation, so as to comprehensively improve the operation effect of the integrated station of optical storage, charging and inspection.