For many years, there has been a trend in Western politics that the far right is getting stronger. In Europe, there are far-right parties in parliaments in many countries, some of which have evolved from the Nazi movement, and some of which hold extreme views that run counter to the European tradition of liberal democracy, which was formed after World War II. While the far-right is growing in terms of support and the number of MPs, most mainstream parties have vowed not to cooperate with them or involve them in the management of the country.
However, in the 21st century, Europe's far-right has become part of the mainstream, reflecting the political attitudes of many people in Europe, rather than the radical ideas of a very small minority.
Last week's election in the Netherlands was a clear example.
The election came as a big surprise, with the far-right Freedom Party, led by a longtime disputed politician, Geert Wilders, winning 37 out of 150 seats in the Dutch parliament, more than double the 2021 election. Wilders' party, known by its Dutch acronym PVV, is now the largest party in parliament and could theoretically determine the composition of the next Dutch **. There will be a complicated period of negotiations with many other parties in Dutch politics, and it is not yet known whether Wilders will actually be able to form a coalition that will put him in power.
After the vote, the current prime minister, Mark Rutte, whose party is center-right, led by Dilan Yehilgoz-Zegrus, said he would not form a government with Wilders' party. Former EU climate ** Frans Timmermans, who now leads a centre-left Labour-Greens coalition that is the second largest party, says they will go into the opposition. The last edition of the Netherlands** took 299 days to compose, and this one could be even longer.
The results of this election also send a clear signal to Europe. Wilders' far-right and nationalist allies feel that the success of PVV is a testament to their status. "Europe can have a new future," said Matteo Salvini, Italy's vice prime minister, who, like Mr. Wildes, opposes immigration.
Marine Le Pen, the leader of France's far-right national front, has spent many years trying to enter the mainstream of European politics like Wilders, and she is likely to become France's next leader. She shares Wilders' dislike of the way the EU works. Dutch voters "show that more and more EU countries are questioning the way the EU works," Le Pen said.
Le Pen. The wind of the far right is blowing everywhere in Europe," Tom van Grieken, a hard-line populist in Belgium, said after Wilders' victory. "We've been seeing this change for some time now and it's continuing in the Netherlands. We are all patriots, and we all want to put our people first. There's nothing more motivating than this. ”
The election results in the Netherlands were as politically victorious as those of far-right parties elsewhere on the continent. "Far-right parties have come to power in Italy, expanded their presence in Hungary, become part of a coalition in Finland, become de facto governing partners in Sweden, enter parliament in Greece, and make significant progress in local elections in Austria and Germany," my colleague said, referring to the recent electoral results of far-right factions in Slovakia and Spain.
The rise of the far right "is already a long-term trend, but now it looks more momentum," Catherine Fischer, a political analyst and researcher at the European University Institute in Florence, told The Washington Post.
This may simply be because voters believe in their attractiveness more than before. The Economist points out that ". .Polls during the election campaign show that while Dutch voters are most concerned about health care, integrity and economic security, their aversion to immigration is higher。Many Dutch people blame the worsening housing shortage on the flow of migrants. Few political parties challenge this consensus. ”
Ann-Cathrine Jungar, a political scientist at Sweden's S Dert RN University, said: "The issues that the far right in Europe considers most important – the influx of immigrants, the crime rate of immigrants, the impact of multiculturalism, the debate on gender diversity, the traditional view of the family – many other parties are now starting to follow suit." Far-right parties and their ideas have entered the mainstream, and this is already the new normal. ”
Whether the far-right can break into the "castle" or not always depends on whether the center-right establishment is willing to drop the "drawbridge". Rutte, the longest-serving leader in Western Europe, spent more than a decade excluding Wilders, while also trying to co-opt Wilders' supporters. Rutte's successor, Yesilgoz Zegrius, opened the door during the election, saying she was willing to form an alliance with them — because having the support of the far right would make her more likely to become prime minister.
Instead, voters who oppose immigration feel emboldened enough to choose "authentic rather than copycat", as Sarah de Lang, a professor of political science at the University of Amsterdam, said in an interview with the Financial Times.
Wilders is perhaps the clearest example of how mainstream center-right parties can empower the far right," Stan Veuger, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, who focuses on European politics, told me. "The center-right feels that it will rally voters who want to be more right-wing;The result was that the far right like Wilders became the new choice for these voters, and Wilders seized the opportunity to downplay (but certainly not abandon) some of his most extreme views in order to appeal to voters. ”
Wildes' outrageous views include calls for restrictions on Muslim immigration – he has been convicted in the past for insulting an ethnic group – and a ban on mosques and the Koran. No matter how extreme his ideology is, the Dutch political ecosystem is not equipped to challenge him. Dutch political scientist Kas Mulder said: "For almost 25 years, in order to defeat far-right parties, we have pandered to far-right voters, resulting in the far-right party now being the largest party in parliament." ”
However, given the complexity of working with centrists, or the impossibility of a coalition led by Wilders for many potential allies, Wilders may not be able to make the most of his current support. Winning 37 out of 150 seats is a good result, but not a decisive mandate.
As Dave Keating, a commentator on European affairs in the United States, observes, "the far-right bloc within the Republican Party, which has about the same percentage of seats, is able to remove the speaker and shut down**." They are likely to be in the White House within a year. ”