According to wind statistics, the net inflow of pharmaceutical ETFs in the past three days was 6400 million yuan, with a single-day net inflow of 3500 million. Tianhong Hang Seng Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Innovative Drugs Select 50 ETF (517380) has a net inflow of 581 in the past three days380,000 yuan, a net inflow of 704 in the past five days020,000 yuan.
As of midday on December 12, the main A-share indices were differentiated, with the Shanghai Composite Index floating red, the ChiNext Index and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 falling, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rising and falling. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 006% to 2993At 36 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 025% at 960855 points, the GEM index fell 075% at 190135 points, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 127% at 867At 4 points, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 fell 006%。The market turnover is 5096600 million yuan, and the actual net sale of northbound funds was 511.1 billion yuan.
Tianhong Hang Seng Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Innovative Drug Select 50 ETF (517380) intraday trading volume reached 6.92 million yuan and continued to expand. This ** closely tracks the Hang Seng CS-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Innovative Drugs 50 Index (HSSSHID.).hi), the index opened briefly after the opening of the index, and then pulled up and stabilized. As of midday, 20 of its constituents were **. Changshan Pharmaceutical and Hansoh Pharmaceutical led the gains, with increases respectively. 67%, Tasly, Mabwell, Kelun Pharmaceutical, etc. have followed suit.
On a macro level, this week is a pivotal week, as both the ECB and the Fed will make their final interest rate decisions for this year, as well as a key time to verify whether the market's bets on a rate cut in early 2024 are "correct".
*On December 12, Baili Tianheng announced that its subsidiary Systimmune will cooperate with Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS) for the rights and interests of EGFR HER3 ADC new drug BL-B01D1. Affected by this positive situation, Baili Tianheng opened with a 20cm daily limit. Upon the effective date of the agreement, BMS will make an upfront payment of $800 million and up to $500 million in near-term contingent payments to Systimmune; Upon reaching development, registration, and sales milestones, systimmune will receive up to $7.1 billion in additional payments; The total potential transaction value could be up to $8.4 billion.
Innovative drugs have entered the fast lane, and "explosive models" in many fields are expected to be born
The innovative drug industry is going through a critical period from fast-follow to differentiated innovation and development. Investment in innovative drugs has also gradually transitioned from the previous thematic concept investment to fundamental investment.
In addition to routine diagnosis and treatment, there are still many unmet clinical needs, technological innovation will give birth to one after another large single products, and domestic research and development is also gradually advancing. In this process, the support and support of policies for the industry has helped the formation of differentiated innovation channels in the industry. Innovative drug research is of great significance to China's construction of an innovative country. Among the country's medium and long-term major national science and technology projects, there is a special "major new drug creation project", which aims to create a batch of drugs with good first-class effect on major diseases and independent intellectual property rights, and reduce dependence on foreign new drugs.
According to the statistics of Southwest **, as of December 10, 2023, 3 new drugs were approved for marketing in China, and 5 new indications were approved for marketing in December. And as the Fed's interest rate hike nears its end, the valuation suppression factor of innovative drugs is expected to be further lifted.
Some analysts pointed out that now should be the second round of innovation cycle of China's medicine, which is the starting stage of the innovation cycle and a relatively early stage. At this stage, many innovative drugs and innovative devices, the investment cost performance of related companies will be relatively more prominent, both in terms of space and certainty.
Recently, some institutions also pointed out in the 2024 annual strategy report that China's innovative drugs have moved from the era of "quantitative change" to the era of "qualitative change", and some new drugs have shown greater potential for clinical benefits. At present, the revenue of blockbuster new drugs of innovative pharmaceutical companies has increased rapidly, the R&D and sales expense indicators have improved, the profitability has improved, and the commercialization has entered an accelerated harvest period. Looking forward to 2024, there are still structural opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector from the three dimensions of policy, valuation and fundamentals. Among them, innovative drugs + going overseas is one of the directions that institutions continue to be optimistic about.
Compared with the pharmaceutical sector as a whole, the growth potential of innovative drugs may be greater, and with the intensive implementation of industry policies, the innovative drug industry has entered the "fast track" of development. In the innovative drug sector, in addition to tumors, the research and development of innovative drugs in the fields of Alzheimer's disease (AD), obesity, hair loss and other diseases have also attracted much attention, and it is believed that there are expected to be popular products in China.
According to the opinion of IFC**, after a long-term decline and adjustment, the pharmaceutical sector will usher in a big inflection point from the second half of 2023 to 2024, and multiple factors such as policy, performance, and chips will bottom out and reverse. The public health environment factors have been cleared, the restrictions on in-hospital diagnosis and treatment and consumer medical care have been lifted, and the flow of diagnosis and treatment has been restored; Various national, alliance and local centralized procurement fee control measures continue to be implemented, and the industry pattern and expected management are gradually stable; Anti-corruption in the medical field has cleared up the industry ecology, and the concentration of benefits of leading enterprises has increased after the market is expected to stabilize. However, in the future, the investment style of the sector will change significantly compared with the previous round of upward cycle, looking for excess returns in the beta of the steadily growing industry from the bottom up, emphasizing the rigidity of demand in the pharmaceutical sector, defensive value and the ability to resist volatility with steady growth, and make value growth investment. From the perspective of plate selection, the out-of-hospital plate is stronger than the in-hospital plate, and the medicine is stronger than the medical treatment; Considering the characteristics of the current market funds and the changes in the issuance and review environment of the pharmaceutical sector, it is recommended to pay special attention to the opportunity of the reversal of the dilemma of the main business of small and medium-cap pharmaceutical targets. At the same time, extended mergers and acquisitions and commercial licensing BD are also very likely to be important opportunities for the pharmaceutical sector to catalyze in 2024. At the same time, we still attach importance to the growth value of innovative drugs and devices, and innovation and growth is still one of the most important investment themes.
Tianhong Hang Seng Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Innovative Drugs Select 50 ETF (517380)**Manager He Yuxuan:In the short, medium and long term, we all have a clear bullish view on the pharmaceutical industry. Compared with the whole market, the pharmaceutical industry is still in a state of not being priced correctly. The current pharmaceutical industry, market environment, and business conditions are significantly better than those at the end of April last year. From a bottom-up perspective, the vast majority of large and medium-sized enterprises in the sector already have excellent cost performance. From the perspective of industry comparison, this is an investment choice that should not be missed, whether from the perspective of industry fundamentals, valuation level or transaction congestion. When interest rates fall, market funds tend to choose some more aggressive or growth assets, and we believe that this is a relatively appropriate time to invest in innovative drugs. You can pay attention to the Hang Seng Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Innovative Drugs Select 50 ETF Connection**A(014564) C(014565).
Risk Warning: The objective display of index constituents in this article is not intended as a recommendation. Please read the legal documents of the product carefully before purchasing, and choose the product that suits you. The market is risky, and investors need to be cautious. **Can invest in Hong Kong Stock Connect targets**, you need to bear the unique risks caused by the differences in investment environment, investment targets, market systems and trading rules under the Hong Kong Stock Connect mechanism.
*: Tianhong**.
Disclaimer: This article is ** content, does not represent the position of this magazine, and does not constitute investment advice.