Red Star Capital Bureau reported on December 17 that on December 16, at the "2023 Snowball Carnival" event, Peng Wensheng, chief economist of CICC, shared the latest views on the current economic situation and medium and long-term economic growth potential. Peng Wensheng said that in the new stage of development, economies of scale are the bright spots of China's growth, and there are three main factors.
Peng Wensheng. The first is the trend of de-globalization. In the era of globalization, small economies enjoy economies of scale by participating in the global division of labour. In the future era of de-globalization, the advantages of large economies will be more prominent, and the reason behind this is that the larger the consumer market, the stronger the innovation ability. A larger market size can dilute R&D expenses and increase competition, thereby increasing innovation capabilities.
The second is the digital economy. The prominent feature of the digital economy is that it is non-competitive. The larger the scale, the more it can support the high investment in the early stage of the digital industry and reduce the service cost in the later stage.
The third is green transformation. The green transition has fundamentally changed the foundation of our modern economy, which will inevitably have a profound impact on the competitive pattern, industrial structure and economic structure of the global economy. Peng Wensheng said that green energy is actually manufacturing, and its important feature is economies of scale, that is, the larger the scale, the lower the unit cost.
In addition, Peng Wensheng also mentioned that the combination of digital economy and green transformation has made economies of scale more prominent. Taking new energy vehicles as an example, more than 70% of the cost of new energy vehicles is related to digital technology, while traditional fuel vehicles are only a little more than 20% related to digital technology.
As for how to give full play to the advantages of large countries to promote innovation, Peng Wensheng said that the advantages of large countries include large populations, large economies, and vast land space; The ability to share R&D investment is strong, and "learning by doing" promotes gradual and catch-up innovation; diversification of consumer demand, etc. Peng Wensheng emphasized that to give full play to the advantages of scale, it is necessary to establish a first-class partnership with the market from the supply side to improve the supply of the system; Cultivating a large market from the demand side, promoting consumer demand, and combining short-term growth with long-term innovation.
Red Star News reporter Jiang Ziwen photo report.
Edited by Xiao Ziqi.
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