Recently, the United States has expressed its willingness to sign an agreement with China on notification of missile launches. This proposal stems from the failure of the US side to understand China as it hopedNuclear warheadsTherefore, it is hoped that the mutual trust between the two parties will be enhanced by signing the agreement. This agreement is similar to the one signed between China and Russia in 2009."Ballistic missileslaunch notification mechanism", the main purpose of which is to strengthen strategic stability and mutual trust between the two countries. According to this mechanism, both sides are firingICBMsand submarine-shotBallistic missilesDuring the test, it is necessary to notify the other party in advance and provide detailed information such as time, place, missile type and flight path. The purpose of this is to avoid miscalculations and ensure that both sides have sufficient time to make corresponding preparations and create conditions for achieving strategic stability.
However, to letChina and the United StatesIt was not easy to sign this agreement. First of all,China and the United Statesbetween politics andMilitaryThere is considerable friction in the field, and the high level of mutual trust between the two countries is almost non-existent. Although the two sides have cooperated in the economic field, the United States has never stopped hyping up and provoking the Taiwan Strait issue, especially on the Taiwan Strait issue. Recently, the United States also announced that the U.S.-Philippines mutual defense treaty applies to the South China Sea, suggesting that the Philippines could borrow itBeautiful ** thingstrength as support. These moves have had a negative impact on China. Secondly, ifChina and the United StatesAn agreement was signed to inform each other of missile launches, and the United States could use the terms of the agreement to limit or influence ChinaMilitaryPolicies and Actions. In addition, the implementation of the agreement may also expose some of China'sMilitarycapacity and planning, and increase the American pairMedium ** thingAbility to monitor operations. On top of that, China's compliance with the notification mechanism could limit China's response speed and course of action, putting it at a disadvantage in responding to emergencies.
The consequences of a miscalculation of missiles are very serious. Historically, there has been an incident of missile miscalculation in the Soviet Union. At that time, the Soviet Union's satellite early warning system showed that the United States had sent **ICBMs, and according to the logic of counterattacks during the Cold War, the USSR should have immediately reported and prepared for a counterattack. However, an officerPetrovIntuitively judged that these signals could be false positives from the system and were not reported to senior leadership. Final proof,PetrovThe judgment is correct, because the alarm of the missile launch is actually due to the fact that the clouds reflected by the sun are misinterpreted as traces of the missile launch. IfPetrovWithout correct judgment, it is likely to lead to a full-scale nuclear counterattack by the Soviet Union, with unimaginable consequences. This incident shows that miscalculations can occur in highly antagonistic situations, so soundness in decision-making systems and crisis management becomes particularly important.
China's choice of whether to sign a missile launch notification agreement with the United States needs to weigh the pros and cons. On the positive side, signing an agreement with the United States can avoid miscalculations, enhance strategic stability and mutual trust, and prevent the recurrence of events similar to those of the Cold War. However, the premise of the agreement is:China and the United StatesThere is a high degree of mutual trust between the current politics andMilitaryIn context, this premise is almost non-existent. In addition, the establishment of a notification mechanism requires relevant information from the Chinese side, which could increase the U.S. surveillance capabilities against China. Most crucially, there is uncertainty about whether the US will be able to comply with the agreement fairly and equally.
To achieveChina and the United StatesThe goal of signing the missile launch notification agreement is first and foremost to improve political relations between the two countriesMilitaryMutual trust. This requires the US to review and adjust its China policy, abandon suppression and containment of China, and show sincerity and benefitChina and the United StatesRelationship of action. Only through dialogue and cooperation between the two sides on the basis of mutual respect and equality can a peaceful solution be sought. Second, before signing the agreement, China needs to carefully assess the pros and cons of the agreement, and fully consider that the United States may use the agreement to constrain ChinaMilitaryPossibility of policy and action. Before deciding whether to sign the agreement, China should fully discuss and weigh the agreement, and protect its own national interests and security.
China and the United StatesThe signing of the agreement on notification of missile launches is a complex and sensitive issue. Although its purpose is to avoid miscalculations and strengthen strategic stability and mutual trust, in the current political and ...MilitaryAgainst the background, there is considerable friction and distrust between the two sides. China needs to carefully weigh the pros and cons of the agreement, and demand that the US side show sincerity and benefit in its actionsChina and the United StatesRelationship attitudes. Dialogue and cooperation between the two sides on the basis of mutual respect and equality is the key to achieving a peaceful settlement.