"Science and Technology Innovation Board**" on December 25The wave of memory chip price increases has spread further, and this time the NOR flash industry is about to usher in an inflection point.
The latest Morgan Stanley report states:In 2024, the global NOR flash market will shift from oversupply to undersupply, ushering in a situation of "both volume and price".
From 2022 to 2023, the NOR Flash market will be in a state of oversupply, and the Da Mo report pointed out that the ** surplus is about 5%. The report points out that consumer electronics will recover as a whole in 2024, and the gradual increase in the use of NOR Flash in PCs and smartphones will have a positive impact on the demand for NOR FlashNOR Flash is expected to enter the peak season in the second quarter of next year, and demand is expected to grow by about 5%.
In this atmosphere, the NOR Flash industry has begun to brew price increases.
Taiwan's economy ** has news today pointed out,It is expected that NOR Flash will take over the baton to start a new round of price increases for memory chips, which is expected to rise by 5% from January next year, and the increase is expected to expand to 10 in the second quarter
After GigaDevice, Winbond Electronics, Macronix and other NOR Flash companies started to reduce production at the end of last year, the market inventory gradually declined, and the previous inventory level was about 3-4 weeks on average. Recently, the terminal demand has warmed up and begun to pull goods, and the inventory level of OEM and system factories has dropped rapidly to only about 2 weeksThe industry expects that OEMs and system factories will start pulling goods and replenishing inventory in the traditional off-season in the first quarter of next year
Not only is NOR Flash expected to usher in price increases, but Trendforce recently predicts that DRAM and NAND** are both expected to increase by 18%-23% QoQ in the first quarter of next year—a 10-13% increase from its previous expectations (8%-13% QoQ increase in DRAM** and 5%-10% QoQ for NAND).
Storage giant Micron has also recently given an optimistic outlook, it notedNext year, the product will rebound, the rally will continue to 2025, and 2024 will be the year of the memory industry
CITIC believes that the Q3 performance of memory chip industry chain companies has been repaired, and mainstream and niche storage have risen together, and continue to pay attention to the impact of the original inventory destocking process and the recovery rhythm of downstream demand on storage.
From the perspective of the industry cycle, analysts said that the storage supply and demand of overseas manufacturers have gradually improved under the control of the operation, and the mainstream storage has continued to pick up since Q3, and has driven the niche storage to bottom out in Q4. It is recommended to pay attention to: 1) storage modules;2) Memory supporting chips that benefit from DDR5 upgrade penetration;3) Memory chip design.