1. The long-term trend of real estate is downward, the real estate in the past ten years is due to its fundamental reasons, and the real estate will return to residential attributes in the next ten years, an important indicator is the net inflow of population, because the inflow of population can support housing prices.
2. The current net inflow of population mainly comes from the southeast coastal areas, and this trend will continue in the next few years, so the net inflow of population into urban housing prices will be the same.
3. In addition to the net inflow of population, the urbanization rate is also an important factor affecting housing prices.
4. Land transfer income and real estate-related taxes are the main sources of local finance.
Property market, real estate, housing prices, property tax, provident fund, housing loans, property market regulation.
The long-term trend of real estate is downward in the past ten years, and there are fundamental reasons for real estate, on the one hand, urbanization, China's population shift from rural to urban, which is the fundamental reason for real estate in the past decade;On the other hand, the real estate wealth effect brought about by China's economic development is also the fundamental reason for the real estate industry in the past decadeThere is also the over-issuance of currency, which makes a large amount of money enter the real estate field.
There is still room for net population inflow into urban housing prices1. From the perspective of urban agglomerations, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta are the regions with the largest net population inflow, mainly because these two regions have rapid economic development, many employment opportunities, and strong attraction to the population.
2. From the perspective of net population inflow into cities, this trend will continue in the next few years, especially in the southeast coastal areas. Because these two regions are the most economically active regions in our country, there are many employment opportunities.
In the past ten years, China's urbanization rate has increased by about 15 percentage points, from the original 55% to about 60%, but compared with the urbanization rate of 70%-80% in developed countries, China's urbanization rate still has a lot of room for improvement. According to the standards of the United Nations, the urbanization rate of more than 70% is a high-income country, and China has only reached about 50% at present, and there is still a lot of room for the urbanization rate to increase in the future.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, China's urbanization rate is currently 537%, while the urbanization rate of developed countries and regions is above 90%, such as the United States has exceeded 97%, and the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Japan and other countries have also exceeded 85%. Therefore, from this point of view, China will have a lot of room for improvement in the future.
Land transfer income and real estate-related taxes are the main ones of local finance**1, and there are three main parts of local finance, land revenue, land sale income and related taxes, of which land transfer income accounts for the majority.
2. Land transfer fees and related taxes are the main sources of local finance, which is the main reason for the rapid housing prices in cities in the past ten years, and this trend will not change in the next few years.
3. In the future, if we want to control housing prices too fast, only by reducing land can we really curb housing prices.
The impact of local bonds on the real estate marketLocal bonds are an important financing method for finance and local finance, but local bonds cannot solve all the problems of local finance, because local bonds are essentially a debt financing method, and debt financing is not a continuous income.
Only when China's economic growth momentum weakens can local fiscal problems be solved through transfer payments, and this process requires a precondition that China's economic growth rate should remain at a medium-high level. Therefore, in order to solve local fiscal problems through debt financing, it is necessary to maintain a stable economic growth rate.
The impact of local government bonds on the real estate market is short-lived, as debt financing and real estate-related taxes are the main source of local finances, and debt financing will gradually decrease as China's economic growth momentum weakens. Without significant systemic risk, debt financing will not have much impact on the real estate market.