In the early morning of the 14th, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve once again "skipped" raising interest rates and maintained the target range of the federal interest rate at 525% to 55%。This is the third consecutive time that the Federal Reserve has held interest rates, which is basically consistent with the general tone of the just-concluded ** economic work conference "seeking progress while maintaining stability".
After the Fed's announcement, all three major stock indexes hit new 52-week highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is more than 300 points, surpassing the all-time record set in January 2022 for the first time before breaking through 37,000 points. The S&P 500 index closed at 4,70709 points, which is also the first time since January 2022 that it has exceeded 4,700 points. Nasdaq Composite Index**138% to 14,73396 points.
The ** Economic Work Conference, which ended on December 12, pointed out that "a prudent monetary policy should be flexible, moderate, precise and effective." Maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, and match the expected targets of economic growth and monetary growth ...... the scale of social financing and monetary resourcesMaintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. ”
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at the press conference that inflation has eased somewhat, but remains elevated;The Fed's policy rate may be at or near its peak in this tightening cycle, but another rate hike cannot be ruled out.
Where is the inflection point for the US dollar to cut interest rates?remains the focus of general attention. Deutsche Bank**, the Fed will start cutting interest rates at its monetary policy meeting in June 2024, with a rate cut of 175 basis points for the year. Morgan Stanley economists have the same timing of the rate cut, but expect only 100 basis points for the full year.
As ordinary people, we should understand that the current global economic situation is highly interrelated, and the hegemony of the United States in leading the global economy has not changed for the time being. The U.S. dollar index is closely related to the world's economy.
A country's monetary policy and macroeconomic situation are often reversed, that is, policies are used to regulate the economy. When the economy is uncertain, interest rates tend to stabilize.
The year 2023 that is about to pass feels a bit difficult for ordinary people. Because the world's economic environment is still uncertain, but the first economic work conference also clearly pointed out that "China's development is facing favorable conditions stronger than unfavorable factors, the basic trend of economic recovery and long-term improvement has not changed, to enhance confidence and confidence." ”
The so-called unstable and uncertain economic environment is also an economic crisis. After World War II, the term gradually became popular. Every country is very afraid of the word, but it backfires, and basically every 10 years or so, there is a local or global economic crisis.
Although Western economists have described the economic crisis for many reasons, they have not dug deep into the root causes. The United States is a typical country that monetizes its economy, using its strong currency to frantically export dollars to reap the fruits of other countries' economic development. This may also be the reason why it has trillions of dollars in debt, but it is still unharmed.
According to the law summarized by economists, every time the dollar raises interest rates, a large amount of capital will flow into the United States, and on the contrary, the country or region where the currency flows will have an economic crisis. Therefore, countries are very concerned about the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, which is held eight times a year.
Although the trend of the US dollar has little to do with ordinary people, the US dollar index directly affects the exchange rate of the RMB and indirectly affects the wealth of ordinary people.
For ordinary people, there are two things to understand about the economic crisis: one is that cash flow is not equal to cash, and when the economic crisis comes, assets can easily shrink. Cash is not fatal to businessmen, cash flow is the lifeblood of businessmen. Second, it will be more difficult to make money, because everyone is short of money, and there are also some opportunities waiting to realize high-quality assets.
The average person's house looks like an asset, but it is not necessarily a high-quality asset, and it is more of a liability. The so-called high-quality assets must have three attributes: first, liquidity, which can be realized at any time;The second is scarcity, the longer the time, the smaller the quantity;The third is value-added, which will increase in value over time.
Can and cannot ordinary people learn from Warren Buffett Xi turn assets into cash and avoid financial risks. Wait until the crisis is over, and then buy back a large number of high-quality assets at a low price**. This idea seems to be fine, but the premise is that ordinary people don't have so many assets that can be **, and they don't have a particularly large cash flow in their hands.
Of course, Warren Buffett will not keep a lot of cash at home, but will turn assets that are not easy to realize into liquid assets, that is, cash flow.
Although it is said that cash is king, remember!In an environment of economic instability, holding large amounts of cash is at risk of currency depreciation.
The views expressed in this article are solely those of me and have nothing to do with **. The content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be instructive;The data in the article are all from the Internet.