China seems to have escaped the subprime mortgage crisis, but it is not, only on a small scale.
To a large extent, this is due to the fact that it is "state-owned", because there are state-owned banks in front of it, so many local banks below do not dare to be too presumptuous.
Those who have read "The Big Short" should remember how the author described subprime mortgages at that time, "second" means "poor", imperfect loans, relatively poor, and even loans that everyone knows will not be able to recover at all. There is a plot in the movie "The Big Short", where the money lenders are crazy about making money and making a lot of money, and their business comes from ** dancing girls. This group is not destined to have a lot of money, but when the protagonist goes to investigate, it is found that a girl has even bought three houses. She had no idea how the loan would have to be repaid in the future. Here, the mortgage clerk is actually hiding the real future repayment situation from the customer.
This shot is familiar, yes, very similar to China in 2016.
I have a friend who works as a real estate agent and bought a house in 2016, I asked him if you have so much money, he said loan, I said how much I borrowed, he said this, it must be how much you can borrow, how long you can borrow, how long you can borrow. At that time, people bought houses with as little down payment as possible and as long a loan term as possible. The essence of this rhythm is to use a low down payment to get a house, and then bear a minimum monthly payment, and one day in the future the house will continue to increase in price, find a suitable opportunity to sell at any time ......Even if you can't live by yourself, the house price has never been **, and you won't lose money if you buy it.
If the intermediaries themselves think so, the customers that these intermediaries bring to see will inevitably be affected.
However, many of these buyers cannot afford to take out loans.
I remember that CCB would strictly examine the qualifications of lenders to see if they had the ability to repay, so many people could not borrow from such state-owned banks, but local banks were much simpler. Another agent said that two of his colleagues bought a house in Crystal Court in the first half of 2017, and the price at that time was 15+, now 8500 is gone. As an intermediary, 2016-2017 is definitely a glorious moment, and even a set of transactions can be made every day, earning tens of thousands of ...... a monthBut such customers are still not high-quality customers in the eyes of state-owned banks, their income is high, but they are all commissions, and this market is so unstable ......
However, instability is only unstable in the eyes of state-owned banks, not in the eyes of these practitioners themselves, and small banks are even more reckless in order to achieve performance. The happy lenders in "The Big Short" coincide with the image of our real estate agent back then, no different. Everyone thinks that the future is bright, but they don't know that one day they will also be part of the unemployed army.
State-owned banks don't lend, but local banks do. Therefore, the most loans were obtained in Shijiazhuang that year, which were Hebei Bank and Ping An Bank. And to this day, ......Yes, as you think, the vast majority of the mortgage auction houses are also in these two banks, of course, more small banks will also appear in the plaintiff's dock, and state-owned banks are relatively rare. I won't go looking for specific pictures, everyone is on the **Jingdong legal auction page, it is easy to see the plaintiff, and if you want to see the specific facts of the case, go to the China Judgment Network.
As I said in a previous article, the big force of supply cuts is still to come, and it will not appear until the second half of 24 years at the earliest, which is China's subprime mortgage. People who were taken into the ditch by those agents and loan clerks when they took out loans had to give up the property to climb up. The only good thing is that China's finance still depends on the state-owned banks, so it will not lead to a crisis because of the emergence of subprime mortgages.
Subprime mortgages will be, on a small scale, and the crisis will be on a small scale, and for those who have broken their mortgages, and for those banks with a lot of non-performing assets, it will not be a crisis. But fortunately, it is not the whole society, it will not affect the economy, it will not affect the lives of most people.
Strictly speaking, the subprime mortgage crisis has already appeared, but the banks involved are relatively limited, and it does not involve the whole society and the entire financial system like in "The Big Short". As for the foreclosure house, there has not been a large-scale problem so far, just because justice takes time.