On Dec. 19, presumably the last Trump-related news of the year, the Colorado Supreme Court ruled that Trump was legally ineligible to appear on the ballot in the state's primary because of his involvement in the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol Hill "insurrection."
If the ruling can be enforced, Trump will not only lose votes in Colorado, but it could also have a knock-on effect, with a number of other state courts making similar decisions. But the problem is that when it comes to Trump's eligibility, it's not the state Supreme Court that decides the final decision, but the federal Supreme Court. There is a high probability that Trump will save the day.
Disqualification. The U.S. Supreme Court of Colorado (the U.S. Supreme Court), which has seven top judges, passed the ruling by a 4-3 vote. The ruling was based on the provisions of the Fourteenth Amendment, Section 3 of the U.S. Constitution. This constitutional provision prohibits federal, state, and local** individuals who have taken an oath to uphold the U.S. Constitution from holding public office if they are involved in an "insurrection or insurrection."
This law was introduced after the American Civil War and was originally intended to prevent those who had served for the Confederacy from running for federal office after the war. However, since the passage of this clause, it has rarely been applied in practice in the history of the United States, let alone used on the best candidates.
The Colorado Supreme Court's ruling held that the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol Hill riot was an insurrection and that Trump was involved in the insurrection. So he is not eligible to run for office.
Not only is this ruling historic, but civil rights groups in many other states in the United States have used the clause to challenge Trump's candidacy for next year, and the Colorado Supreme Court's ruling is the first case in favor of the prosecution, which could have a big impact on the next decisions in other states.
That is, if this verdict is implemented in effect, Trump will not only be disqualified from running in the Colorado primary, but other states may also make the same verdict, which will certainly be a fatal blow to Trump's campaign.
However, in this matter, the final say is not in the states, but in the Supreme Court.
The Colorado Supreme Court also did not call for the immediate implementation of the ruling, saying it would wait until Jan. 4, and if Trump appealed to the Supreme Court before then, it would wait until the Supreme Court ruled before complying with its ruling. Trump's legal team has said it will appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.
Defenses. What will happen to the Federal Supreme Court?Judging from the current information and various analyses, there are three factors worth noting.
First, in the Colorado Supreme Court's ruling, the opinion of a minority of justices (i.e., the three judges who disagreed with the disqualification of Trump's primary) is noteworthy.
The three dissenting judges in Colorado focused on two points for disqualifying Trump.
First, procedurally speaking, no court has so far passed a verdict convicting Trump of insurrection. It is not procedural for a citizen to be disqualified from running for election without being convicted. In other words, if a court finds Trump guilty of insurrection, he could be disqualified under Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment.
Trump now faces a number of criminal charges, but the one that is generally considered to have had the most serious impact on his candidacy is his attempt to overturn the election results. But none of these charges were charges of rebellion.
The second point is whether to deprive a person of the qualification to run for election in the United States, this power is not in the courts, but in the United States Congress, which must be voted on by the House of Representatives of the United States, and may require the consent of more than two-thirds of the members to be effective.
Both of these grounds should be used by the Trump team in their appeal to the Supreme Court.
Second, the relationship between Trump and the Capitol riot has so far been controversial on a number of fundamental issues. For example, whether the Capitol Hill riot was a planned rebellion or a runaway march;Was Trump directly involved in the riot, did he have a subjective mind to manipulate the whole incident, or did he just want to deny the election results and ask his supporters to demonstrate in Congress, but did not anticipate the violent riot in the end;Trump's agitationary rhetoric on the eve of the riots is not protected by the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.
The Supreme Court of the United States will also take these factors into account.
Third, the Supreme Court will also consider the issue of the right to vote of American voters when hearing this case.
Trump is now the most popular candidate in the Republican Party, and if he is disqualified, it will effectively deprive these voters of their choice. It's about the constitutional rights of voters. Therefore, the ** officer of the Supreme Court will definitely consider it carefully.
At present, 6 of the 9 ** officials of the Supreme Court are conservatives, that is, they generally identify with the Republican Party ideologically. Three of them were appointed by Trump during his presidency. Of course, there are also analysts who believe that the top officials of the Supreme Court will make rulings in accordance with the spirit of the Constitution.
In addition, another result is that, given the importance of this incident and the current political situation in the United States, in order to avoid causing further social turmoil, the Supreme Court officials will delay the decision on Trump's primary eligibility for the time being, but wait for all cases related to Trump to be heard in other courts before deciding according to the circumstances.
Don't dare to celebrate. If the Supreme Court rules and rules that Trump is eligible to run in the primary, or if the Supreme Court does not rule and Trump runs in the primary as he stands, it will be in Trump's favor.
In that case, Trump and his team would have used the Colorado Supreme Court ruling to claim that Democrats were "political" Trump portrayed himself as a political victim who would generally win more voters.
This has happened several times this year. Trump has been subjected to ongoing criminal proceedings, and in some cases Trump has appeared in court for questioning and has been photographed as a suspect**. But every time that happens, Trump turns the lawsuit into campaign capital, and his popularity in the Republican Party has risen instead of falling.
Therefore, after the Colorado Supreme Court's ruling, some liberal groups and liberals expressed their joy that Trump was finally charged with "participating in the insurrection", but the Democratic Party was relatively cautious and did not say too much, let alone celebrate. Because they know that this ruling, even if it achieves a little justice, will not hurt Trump's campaign.
Text丨Yangcheng Evening News International Commentator Qian Kejintu丨Visual China, Xinhua News Agency.