Chip equipment sanctions are more deadly, and the industrial chain is facing a reality test
With the rapid development of China's semiconductor industry in recent years, there is a trend of catching up with and surpassing the United States. In the past, the United States suppressed Chinese semiconductor companies in order to maintain its hegemony, and Huawei bore the brunt. After Huawei, SMIC, Loongson Zhongke, and Shanghai Microelectronics were also implicated.
In March of this year, the United States pulled the Netherlands and Japan to form it"Tripartite Alliance"to limit access to advanced ultraviolet equipment for Chinese semiconductor companies.
In May, the Japanese authorities imposed export controls on 23 types of semiconductor equipment, directly restricting the export of 45nm lithography machines. At the end of June, the Dutch authorities carried out export controls on semiconductor equipment and 14nm-45nm lithography equipment. Since then, the tripartite alliance of the United States, Japan, and the Netherlands has suppressed China's semiconductor industry, which is very annoying.
In early July, China controlled the export of important raw materials such as gallium and germanium. Since then, the United States, Japan, the Netherlands, South Korea, Australia and other countries have expressed concern about this. Japan is demanding legal action, while the Netherlands wants the EU to step in to get enough gallium and germanium from China.
In the face of the reaction of Western countries, the majority of domestic netizens are very happy, believing that China's control of gallium and germanium exports is"Hit the snake and hit the seven inches", which scared the United States and other Western countries. So is this really the case?I don't think so.
Controlling the export of gallium and germanium is a good measure, but it cannot solve the fundamental problem.
According to reports, China's gallium reserves account for about 85% of the world's reserves, and germanium reserves account for about 40% of the world's reserves. Neither reserves nor production capacity can solve the fundamental problem in China. In terms of reserves and production, China ranks first in the world, and has the right to speak and price gallium and germanium exports.
When China's gallium and germanium exports were controlled, the growth of gallium and germanium was 5 times that of gallium alone, reaching 10,000 kilograms.
Objectively speaking, controlling China's gallium and germanium exports is a good measure, which makes the former United States and other Western countries realize that China also has countermeasures, and it is not a soft persimmon that anyone can pinch.
Unfortunately, gallium and germanium are only the core materials of semiconductors, not the core technology and core equipment. Controlling the export of gallium and germanium will not solve the problem of lack of technology and equipment in China's semiconductor industry.
The problem with integrated circuit equipment is:"Yes and no", gallium, germanium and other integrated circuit raw materials are the problem"More and less"。
China's semiconductor industry has problems such as weak foundation, low technology accumulation, and lack of basic equipment. These are all of these questions"Yes and no"For example, China does not have EUV lithography machines and cannot produce high-end DUV lithography machines. For example, chip foundry, China can only produce 14nm chips on a small scale, and chips below the 14nm process can't do anything.
Yes is yes, no is no, this is a reality that we must recognize.
On the contrary, gallium and germanium are not the same, gallium and germanium are raw materials for the production of semiconductors, and this raw material can be bought in many countries, but"Buy long"with"Buy less"problems. As long as the division of labor in the first chain is reasonable, the problem of lack of gallium and less germanium will eventually be solved.
Currently, the United States, Japan and the Netherlands have been formed"Tripartite Alliance"While restricting the export of EUV lithography machines, it also restricts the export of high-end DUV lithography machines. At present, ASML's unrestricted lithography machine is only 1980i, which has been ASML's old-fashioned lithography machine for more than ten years, and has limited help for China's chip production.
If this problem cannot be solved, it will be difficult for the development of China's semiconductor industry to achieve long-term development.