As 2023 draws to a close, the global capital market has generally recorded good performance, and overseas equity markets such as the United States, Europe, Japan, South Korea, India and Vietnam have performed quite brightly. As of December 11, the NASDAQ index has been 37 so far this year62%, German DAX30 **2114%, Vietnam VN30 Index**1070%, India's SenseX Index **1489%。
Chart of the change of major global markets from December 30, 2022 to December 11, 2023 Data**: wind).
With the deepening of the two-way opening up of China's capital market, one of the areas that will attract the most attention in the capital market throughout 2023 is global asset allocation.
The easiest way for individual investors to participate in global asset allocation is to invest in overseas equity markets through public QDII**. We can also get a glimpse of the trend of domestic capital market funds going overseas from the overall situation of QDII this year.
Since the advent of the first QDII** in China in 2007, the net value of QDII** stood above the 400 billion yuan mark for the first time in July this year. According to wind data, as of the end of the third quarter of this year, the total share of QDII** was 47059.8 billion copies, an increase of 11 percent from the end of the second quarter32%；The total asset size is 38675.2 billion yuan, an increase of 746%。
From the perspective of performance, the annual rate of return of QDII** this year exceeds that of active equity products, and is expected to hit the market-wide performance champion in 2023.
It is worth noting that in the past, investors carried out global allocation through QDII products, mainly focusing on U.S. stocks and Hong Kong ** markets, but in recent years, they have followed the pace of the "Belt and Road".Vietnam** has become a new hotspot for overseas investment.
"Crossing the river by touching China"?Vietnam has become the third largest overseas market in the country
Investing in overseas equity markets is essentially investing in the advantageous industries of various countries. For example, the artificial intelligence industry in the United States, the precision manufacturing industry in Germany and Japan, and the low-end manufacturing industry in Vietnam and India.
The strategy of global asset allocation is usually to select markets with positive long-term development trends for allocation, while trying to reduce the correlation of market portfolios.
The developed markets of Europe and the United States have a high correlation, while the markets of emerging countries such as India and Vietnam have different growth logic from the developed markets of Europe and the United States, and the correlation of market trends is low.
As of the end of the third quarter of this year, the top three markets in China's QDII market are Hong Kong stocks, U.S. stocks and Vietnam, and the scale has reached respectively. 61 and 515.7 billion yuan.
Domestic investors' preference for Hong Kong and U.S. stocks has always been there, and this article focuses on Vietnam, the representative of the frontier market.
Why Vietnam?
For Chinese people, Vietnam is a strange and familiar country.
Vietnam has received the baptism of Chinese culture, and there are also Thai Nguyen City, Taiyuan Province, Chongqing County, Henan Province, Shanxi City, Xining City and so on.
In addition to history and culture, Vietnam has taken a series of economic and social construction measures, making Vietnam's economic development and opening up process, as well as the corresponding industrial structure, and even the structure of the entire capital market very similar to China.
In the '80s, Vietnam launched a vital overall economic development strategy called "Reform and Opening-up", similar to China's reform and opening up. After 2000, Vietnam revised the Foreign Investment Act to accelerate its integration into the global industrial chain. At present, Vietnam is benefiting from the dividends brought by a new wave of manufacturing transfer around the world. Looking at macroeconomic data, Vietnam is one of the fastest growing countries in the world. In the past three years, due to the pandemic, macro data has been abnormalized, but in 2019 and the previous decade, Vietnam's average GDP growth rate was about a staggering 65%。
Hu Chao, manager of Tianhong Vietnam Market (QDII)**, said that the construction of Vietnam's capital market, including the system and even the trading rules, is very similar to China's. At present, Vietnam's capital market is still in the early stage of development, and from a structural point of view, it is similar to China** around the late 90s or early 20th century.
A small but beautiful frontier market
The scale of QDII in the Vietnamese market of nearly 5.2 billion yuan is independently supported by Tianhong Vietnam Market (QDII).
In 2019, China's economy has begun to change from high growth to stable growth, but judging from the data of the past decade, Vietnam is still "running in small steps", and the average GDP growth rate has always remained at 6Between 5% and 7%, and the profit growth rate of listed companies can often be increased by more than 10% on this basis. The investment value of the Vietnamese market attracted the attention of Tianhong**, and an overseas research team for Vietnam began to build.
When we first went to investigate, our perception was still relatively profound. Now that China's QFII has been open for so many years, the foreign shareholding ratio is only 5% in A-shares, but Vietnam has reached 20% at that time. We may have overlooked this market, but there are a lot of smarter foreign investors who have entered this market. Hu Chao recalled.
Hu Chao mentioned that Vietnam's demographic structure has obvious advantages, with a total population of 100 million, the median age is only 31 years old, and the proportion of young people under the age of 35 is as high as 56%. Young people are the first of the labor force and consumption power, and the advantages of demographic structure bring about long-term and sustained economic growth such as urbanization and consumption upgrading.
Finally, Vietnam has adopted a policy of innovation and opening up, including the implementation of land law reform, the restructuring of state-owned enterprises, the rapid growth of private enterprises, the attraction of foreign investment into the country to build factories, the improvement of infrastructure, and the improvement of urbanization. At present, Vietnam is absorbing the transfer of global light industry capacity.
On the whole, Vietnam's capital market is a market with a "short history and fast growth". According to the data, from the establishment of the stock exchange in 2005 to the addition of the first batch of listed companies in 2008, the number of companies has grown from 40 to 1,600 in just 15 years, and the total market value has jumped from about $5 billion to more than $200 billion.
Travel back in time to invest in China 20 years ago
Tianhong Vietnam Market (QDII) mainly invests in the Vietnam VN30 Index, which is composed of the top 30 leading stocks in the Ho Chi Minh City Exchange by outstanding market capitalization, and its components account for about 60% of the market capitalization and 80% of the trading volume of the Ho Chi Minh City Exchange.
In terms of industries, the three traditional industries of banking, real estate and securities companies occupy the main investment body in the Vietnamese market, and also contribute to the vast majority of the income of Tianhong in the Vietnamese market. According to the data, as of the end of the third quarter of this year, the three major industries accounted for a total of 748% of **.
This year, the banking sector, which accounts for about 50% of the overall holdings, has provided the most profit contribution to the Tianhong Vietnam market. Hu Chao explained: "In China in the early 90s of the 20th century, under the high interest rate of private loans, the banking system basically determined the flow of social capital, and in Vietnam at the current time, banks also affected the growth rate of development at all levels of society - the whole country contains about 14% of credit growth per year, and the growth rate of bank EPS can reach 20%, which is very valuable for investment." At the same time, as a 'licensed business', banks naturally have a moat of administrative barriers, which also means a stable development pattern. ”
Due to the early entry into the Vietnamese market, Tianhong has also formed a certain barrier. Hu Chao said that among the constituent stocks of the VN30 index, the proportion of targets close to the upper limit of foreign ownership is as high as 30%-40%. In recent years, it will gradually absorb the share released by other foreign investment to improve the flexibility of the Vietnamese market (QDII).
We hold some good **, there is still room for foreign ownership, and we can still continue to invest in it. In the Vietnamese market for a long time, if there are other foreign investors willing to sell, he knows that we have enough funds to accept these, so we are also slowly accumulating some ** that has reached the upper limit of foreign ownership, which makes us relatively flexible in this market. Starting from the recognition that "China has a large and large-scale investment in Vietnam's capital market", Vietnam's understanding of Chinese investors has also increased day by day.
The overall equity of Tianhong in the Vietnam market** has remained above 90% most of the time. Hu Chao pointed out that the trading operations of Tianhong Vietnam market are not frequent, and the core purpose is to earn the beta income of the entire market, and the excess is mainly industry allocation rather than trading.
From the perspective of investment strategy, Tianhong Vietnam market can be said to be a ** that achieves "index enhancement" in the form of active investment. "Our investment strategy is based on a deep understanding and simple understanding of the Vietnamese market, and we share the dividends of market growth by holding a major share of the Vietnamese market. Hu Chao said frankly that compared with local investors, "foreign capital" does not have an information advantage in Vietnam, and in terms of investment ideas, it is still "hoping to earn money for the medium and long-term growth of the country's economy." ”
The Vietnamese market is in the ascendant
When we first started going out for roadshows in 2020, many people didn't know that there was still ** in this country. Recently, when we were surveyed by the roadshow, the issues that everyone paid attention to began to become more and more professional. Hu Chao mentioned.
Tianhong Vietnam Market (QDII) holder asked.
Investors are unaware of the biggest obstacle to investing in overseas markets**. In order to better convey the investment logic of the Vietnamese market, in addition to the traditional roadshow, Tianhong also produces high-frequency text interaction and online live broadcast. To Hu Chao's gratification, with the in-depth and frequent accompaniment of the team, the holders of Tianhong Vietnam Market (QDII) have been deepening their understanding of the Vietnamese market in the past three years.
Hu Chao shared the research harvest of Vietnam with investors in a live broadcast.
The awareness of the holder is gradually improving.
Cognition is mapped to investment results, that is, in the mixed market, the overall share of Tianhong Vietnam's market has always remained in a relatively stable state, whether it is rushing to 1500 points, or there is a 30% drawdown, the scale has always been stable in the range of 40-5 billion yuan.
The Vietnamese market is a first-class market, with large fluctuations", Hu Chao suggested that in the global asset allocation, overseas assets account for about 20% of the total investment assets, of which the proportion invested in Vietnam can account for 5%, taking into account for risk diversification, and strive to share the dividends of Vietnam's long-term development.
As of the end of the third quarter of 2023, Tianhong has 29 people in the Vietnam market60,000 people, an increase of 107%, of which individual investors account for more than ninety percent. Tianhong Vietnam Market A (008763) has a cumulative return of 36. since its inception on January 20, 202086% (performance benchmark 27.)65%）。
Vietnam's GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2023 was 3%, and the market once thought that the Vietnamese economy was starting to hit the brakes, but then it showed strong resilience: the growth rate reached 4% in the second quarter and 5 in the third quarter5%, showing an overall upward trend.
Hu Chao said in a recent speech that from a fundamental point of view, Vietnam has made a lot of efforts in fiscal and monetary policies this year. The Bank of Vietnam's interest rate cut extended from March to June, bringing good interest rates and market liquidity. At the same time, Vietnam's imports and exports began to turn positive in September. In addition, Vietnam's domestic real estate demand has picked up, with data showing that in the first 11 months of 2023, Vietnam's real estate business sector ranked second in attracting foreign investment, attracting more than 28 foreign funds$700 million.
Hu Chao mentioned. According to the plan of the Vietnam Securities Regulatory Commission, Vietnam** is expected to upgrade from a frontier market to an emerging market by 2025. There will be a significant number of emerging-market-tracking investments in Vietnam, which will greatly improve the depth and breadth of the Vietnamese market, which is a very important driver of Vietnam's capital market valuation.
Risk Warning:Tianhong Vietnam Market Initiation Investment (QDII) (Class A) was established on January 20, 2020, and its product performance and benchmark performance for the past 5 full fiscal years since its establishment were 2021-2874%（-28.13%) performance data is reported on a regular basis. The views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice, the market is risky, and investment should be cautious. Past performance is not indicative of future performance, and the performance of the Manager and other performance managed by the Manager does not constitute a guarantee of the performance of this performance. In addition to general investment risks such as market fluctuation risks similar to domestic investments, those who mainly invest in overseas markets will also face special investment risks such as exchange rate risks and overseas market risks.
To learn more, you can search for "Vietnam" on Alipay, China Merchants Bank APP, Tianhong **APP, etc.