The ** Economic Work Conference held from December 11 to 12 gave a new orientation to high-quality development and made specific arrangements for economic work in 2024. How will macro policy be strengthened in 2024?What are the new expectations for economic operation?A number of economists shared their views at a seminar on hot macroeconomic issues held at the China Macroeconomic Forum (CMF).
Wang Yiming, vice chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, believes that the economic work conference emphasizes the need to "increase macroeconomic regulation and control", "more policies conducive to stabilizing expectations, stable growth and stable employment", and "active fiscal policies should be moderately strengthened......".This all reflects that macro policies will be moderately strengthened in 2024.
* The Economic Work Conference requires that the active fiscal policy should be moderately strengthened, improve quality and efficiency, and the prudent monetary policy should be flexible, moderate, precise and effective. Wang Yiming said that there are conditions for strengthening the implementation of fiscal policy and monetary policy. The important thing in fiscal policy is how to improve quality and efficiency. Specifically, the most important thing is to optimize the expenditure structure and strengthen the financial guarantee for major national strategic tasks, including supporting scientific and technological innovation, supporting the construction of a modern industrial system, focusing on expanding effective demand, and focusing on promoting the coordinated development of urban and rural areas and green and low-carbon development. In his view, the first economic work conference proposed to reasonably expand the scope of local special bonds used as capital released an important signal, which is of great significance for ensuring the construction of key projects, guiding and driving social investment, and alleviating the financial pressure of local governments.
Yang Ruilong, a first-class professor at the Chinese People's University, believes that infrastructure investment is still an important force to stimulate investment demand, and at the same time, in order to better play the efficiency of fiscal policy, it is necessary to better resolve the risk of local debt. In addition, there is room for fiscal policy to boost consumer demand.
From the perspective of monetary policy, the current domestic price operation is at a low level and the Fed has paused the pace of interest rate hikes, which provides room for the moderate strengthening of monetary policy. Wang Yiming said that the general tone of monetary policy next year is still to maintain the stability and sustainability of credit growth. **The Economic Work Conference specifically proposed that it is necessary to actively revitalize the financial resources that are inefficiently occupied and improve the efficiency of the use of funds. How to revitalize the stock of loans when making increments is very important to improve the efficiency of the use of funds. In terms of structure, we will continue to increase support for scientific and technological innovation, rural revitalization, private small and micro enterprises, advanced manufacturing, green development and other fields, all of which require structural excellence.
Insufficient effective demand is the main contradiction in the current economic operation. Wang Wei, former director of the Institute of Market Economy of the Development Research Center, said that based on the requirements of the Economic Work Conference, the promotion of consumption should take "progress" as the main direction, and be proactive in promoting innovation, improving quality, adjusting structure, and promoting reform. She believes that the focus of expanding consumption lies in achieving four combinations: First, it is necessary to combine the new trend of promoting consumption with consumption upgrading and transformation;Second, it is necessary to combine the stabilization of bulk consumption with the upgrading of quality in traditional fieldsThird, it is necessary to combine the expansion of consumption with the expansion of investment, which is the core requirement of this year's economic work conference for the expansion of domestic demandFourth, it is necessary to continue to deepen reforms, including the reform of the income distribution system and the improvement of the tax system.
Regarding China's economic performance next year, Wang Yiming said that optimistically, China's economy will be able to achieve a growth rate of 5% next year. "Effectively enhancing economic vitality, preventing and defusing risks, and improving social expectations" is the focus of consolidating and enhancing the upward trend of the economy. Under the current situation, the most important thing to enhance economic vitality is to enhance the vitality of market entities, and how to stimulate the enthusiasm of private enterprises and the private economy is particularly important. In terms of risk mitigation and prevention, the first economic work conference put forward the "three major projects" such as planning and construction of affordable housing, urban village transformation and "flat and emergency dual-use" public infrastructure construction, which play an important role in driving real estate-related investment and alleviating the pressure on real estate enterprises.
The latest ** released by the CMF forecasts China's economic growth in 2024 from the previous 48% to 50%。Liu Xiaoguang, a professor at the National Institute of Development and Strategy of Chinese University and a key member of CMF, said that the team expects that a new round of reform in 2024 will release new growth space, the scale and driving role of investment will be significantly enhanced, and the recovery of consumption will play a fundamental role. He stressed that the biggest room for economic growth in 2024 lies in how to stimulate the operation of social funds for consumption or investment.
*:*Times).