Mitsui Chemicals will reduce its phenol business
It is reported that Japan's Mitsui Chemicals is considering reducing its domestic phenol business and optimizing its domestic cracker and polyolefin business in order to transform into a specialty chemical producer by the end of this decade. The reason why Mitsui Chemicals is"Plans are being made to reduce the scale of domestic phenol acetone plants"The reason is that Japanese producer Idemitsu Kosan has decided to withdraw from the bisphenol A (BPA) business by October 2024 due to a surplus.
Idemitsu Kosan Co., Ltd,ltd.It is the second largest oil company in Japan after Nippon Petro, and manufactures and sells fuel oil and lubricants, as well as petrochemicals such as basic and performance chemicals, and engineering plastics, both in Japan and internationally.
Phenol and acetone are raw materials for the production of bisphenol A. Mitsui Chemicals' plant in Chiba can produce 1140,000 tons of acetone and 190,000 tons of phenol;The Sakai plant can produce 120,000 tons of acetone and 200,000 tons of phenol per year.
In 2023, the domestic bisphenol A market trend will be relatively weak in the first and second quarters due to the lack of favorable factors in the fourth quarter, and it will fall to a new low in the past five years in June, falling to 8,700 yuan ton. After entering the third quarter, the domestic bisphenol A market ushered in a wave of continuous trends, and the market also rose to the highest level of the year, reaching 12,050 yuan tons. Despite the fact that the first is at a high level, the downstream demand has not been able to keep up, and there is a lack of favorable factors in the fourth quarter, and the ** has fallen back to the low ** stage. As of the end of November 2023, the mainstream of bisphenol A in East China was 10,000-10,100 yuan, down nearly 2,000 yuan from the highest point in September.
From the perspective of the bisphenol A industry chain, the upstream is phenol and acetone, and the downstream is epoxy resin and PC, and the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are at the peak of capacity expansion, but the downstream new production speed is significantly lower than that of the upstream. In recent years, the rapid development of the downstream epoxy resin and PC industry of bisphenol A has led to the substantial expansion of China's bisphenol A industry, with the consumption of bisphenol A increasing from 800,000 tons in 2010 to 3.4 million tons in 2023, with a compound growth rate of 11% and a production capacity growth rate of 30 in 20237%。The domestic phenol production capacity is expected to reach 6.35 million tons in 2023, an increase of 50% compared with the production capacity in 2022, much higher than the growth rate of the bisphenol A industry.
Profits are transferred to the upstream and some downstream of the industrial chain
With the imbalance between supply and demand in the domestic bisphenol A market, bisphenol A** will fall further in 2023, and the profitability of the industry will decline significantly. In 2023, the domestic bisphenol A industry will be basically close to the cost line, and even lower than the cost in some periods, resulting in a significant shrinkage of the profit margin of the bisphenol A industry, as of the end of November, the average gross profit of the domestic bisphenol A industry will be -695 yuan tons, and the loss will be further aggravated.
Relatively speaking, the phenol ketone and PC industry still maintains a positive profit margin, and as of the end of November 2023, the profit of China's phenol ketone industry is about 640 yuan tonsThe sample profit of the PC industry is 150 yuan tons, and the upstream raw material bisphenol A** will be lower in 2023, alleviating the pressure on PC costs. However, the epoxy resin industry is still losing money, as of the end of November 2023, the gross profit of liquid epoxy resin is -470 yuan ton, the gross profit of solid epoxy resin is -165 yuan ton, and the profit loss of liquid resin is still obvious.