According to the meaning of the market, two methods can be used to estimate the size of the market, which are to know the whole and find the parts and the market segments to add the whole.
1.Know the whole and seek the parts:
This method is suitable for estimating the size of the target market by extrapolating the relationship between the overall market and parts of the market when the overall market size and related indicators are known. The steps are as follows:
Analyze the relationship between the overall market and the target market, such as the overall market size and the proportion of the target market, the relationship between the indicators of the overall market and the indicators of the target market, etc.
Calculate the size of your target market using known data. For example, as shown in the title, a car brand's car sales in China can be calculated using the following formula: China sales = global sales as a percentage of Chinese sales.
If relevant data are missing, the empirical value of developed countries or similar markets can be used as the ** value.
For example, if a car brand sells 1,000,000 cars in the world, and China accounts for 40% of the global sales, then the formula can calculate that China's car sales are 400,000 units.
2.The market segments add up to find the whole:
This method is suitable for situations where the market can be subdivided into multiple sub-markets, and the size of the overall market is estimated by adding up the size of the individual sub-markets. The steps are as follows:
Segment the target market into quantifiable sub-markets, for example, sales of different types of vehicles can be subdivided into sales of gasoline vehicles, hybrid vehicles, and electric vehicles.
Conduct market research for each sub-market to obtain relevant data and calculate the size of each sub-market.
Add the size of each sub-market to get the size of the overall market.
For example, if the target market is China's automobile sales market, this market can be segmented into gasoline-powered vehicle sales, gasoline-electric hybrid vehicle sales, and electric vehicle sales. Through market research and data collection for each sub-market, 600,000 gasoline-powered vehicles, 200,000 hybrid vehicles, and 300,000 electric vehicles were sold. The overall market for automobiles is as fuel vehicle sales + hybrid vehicle sales + electric vehicle sales = 600,000 + 200,000 + 300,000 = 1,100,000 units.
In short, when estimating the size of the market, it is necessary to establish a reasonable framework and segmentation, and then adopt appropriate data collection and analysis methods, such as benchmarking, expert interviews, etc., and adjust the framework in time to estimate the size of the market. At the same time, the accuracy and reliability of the estimation results can be improved through cross-validation of multiple methods. market