Zheng Tanjun was photographed in Chengdu, Sichuan Province in December 2022.
Entering December, liquor companies have also entered a performance sprint period, driving sales through various Spring Festival activities.
For example, on December 10, Shede Liquor announced the launch of Jiachen Dragon Year Shede Zodiac Liquor. According to the information on the official channels of Shede Liquor, the suggested retail price of 54% vol and 500ml bottles of Shede Dragon Zodiac Liquor is 698 yuan, with a limited sales of 100,000 bottles.
In addition to making efforts on the product side, Shede Liquor has also made continuous efforts in channels and C-end consumers. For example, it is expected to complete the deployment of more than 30,000 terminal stores in more than 300 cities across the countryOpen consumer buying and gifting activities, provide private customized travel gifts, etc.
Behind the preemptive New Year offensive, it is not difficult to see the anxiety of Shede Liquor Industry for performance development. The financial report shows that from 2018 to 2022 and in the first three quarters of this year, the attributable net profit of Shede Liquor increased year-on-year31% and 793%。In recent years, the slowdown in the performance growth of Shede Liquor has been very obvious.
In the fiercely competitive liquor industry, what kind of new story can Shede Liquor tell in the industry?
The growth rate of performance has slowed down
There is a famous saying in the capital market: money is always the smartest. In fact, since the beginning of this year, investors have been very sensitive to the fluctuations in the stock price of Shede Liquor. This trend has been particularly pronounced since the beginning of December.
On December 14, an investor asked Shede Liquor: "Every day in the bottom of the plate, isn't the company worried about the unfavorable transmission to the downstream?"On December 8, an investor asked that Shede Liquor has continued to fall sharply, how is the company's operation in the third and fourth quarters?On December 5, some investors bluntly said that the company's stock price has fallen to the low area of nearly three years.
Wind data shows that as of December 15, 2023**, Shede Liquor's share price was 8924 yuan shares, and on July 21, 2021**, the share price of Shede Liquor was as high as 251With 13 yuan shares, the stock price has fallen to almost one-third of what it was two years ago, and it's no wonder that investors are in a mood.
On December 14, Shede Liquor responded to investors that the stock price is affected by multiple factors such as macroeconomy, market environment, and investor expectations, and the company will continue to maintain good communication with the capital market while doing a good job in production and operation.
In fact, behind the stock price changes, it also reflects some unsatisfactory performance development of Shede Liquor in recent years.
In fact, it is not difficult to find that the big fluctuations in the stock price of Shede Liquor began in 2020. On December 31, 2020, Yuyuan Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Fosun Group, announced that according to the company's development strategy, the company will take 45300 million yuan ** successfully bid for 70% of the shares of Sichuan Tuopai Shede Group (hereinafter referred to as "Shede Group"), and Shede Group holds 29 of Shede Liquor95% equity. Since then, Shede Liquor has gradually bid farewell to the "Sky Ocean System" and ushered in the era of the "Fosun System".
According to the financial report, in 2021, on the basis of adhering to the dual brand strategy of "Shede" and "Tuopai", Shede Liquor will sort out and improve the company's product system, focusing on creating strategic products such as taste Shede, wisdom Shede, collection Shede, Shezhidao, Tuopai Qujiu, Tuopai special T68, Tuopai Liuliang and so on. In addition, the company continues to strengthen its brand building efforts. The hot dramas "Little Shede" and "Beautiful Days" we are chasing all have product placement advertisements for Shede Liquor.
This year is also a year of rapid progress in the performance of Shede Liquor. In 2021, the operating income of Shede Liquor will be 496.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 838%；Net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 124.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11435%。You must know that in 2020, the growth rate of attributable net profit of Shede Liquor will only be 1442%。
However, the "honeymoon bonus" on both sides does not seem to last long. In 2022, the operating income of Shede Liquor will be 605.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2186%；Net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 168.5 billion yuan, the growth rate dropped to 3531%。
This year, the slowdown in the performance growth of Shede Liquor has become more obvious. The financial report shows that in the first three quarters of this year, the operating income of Shede Liquor was 524.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1362%；Net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 129.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of only 793%。
The rapid decline in performance growth has also made investors full of questions: what happened to Shede Liquor?
The road to premiumization is difficult
To be willing to give up the performance development of the liquor industry, it is necessary to analyze the company's development strategy and the market environment it is facing.
As one of the "Six Golden Flowers of Sichuan Liquor", Shede Liquor is an important representative of strong aromatic liquor. In 1996, Shede Liquor became the third listed company in the liquor industry.
The core brands of Shede Liquor include "Shede" and "Tuopai". According to the company's introduction, the company focuses on the mid-to-high-end liquor market, and plans to build "Shede" into the first brand of old liquor and the leader of the sub-high-end price range. At the same time, the company is committed to building "Tuopai" into the most cost-effective popular liquor brand. In addition, the company is also cultivating ultra-high-end liquor brands "Tianzihu", "Reluctant" and "Swallowing" and mid-range liquor brands "Intoxicated".
According to the official information of Shede members, a bottle of 53 degrees 500ml sauce flavor Tianzi Hu is 12,999 yuan, and a bottle of 53 degrees 750ml swallowing is 2,980 yuan. In the Shede brand series, a bottle of 52 degrees 500ml collection Shede 10 years ** is 1299 yuan.
Such a high ** expedition was a little shocked. So, what is the current competitive landscape of the domestic mid-to-high-end liquor market?
As we all know, in the current large industry environment, the overall consumption structure is facing a certain degree of adjustment, and the industry leading effect is becoming more and more obvious. Consumers are also more inclined to choose big brands when buying high-end liquor.
According to the data, the total revenue of Mao Wulu's high-end wine in 2021 reached 1559900 million yuan, with a total sales volume of more than 760,000 tons, while other brand products that focus on the high-end market (Qinghualang, Dream Blue M9, Handicraft Class, Junpin Xi Wine, Qinghua 30, etc.) have a revenue of about 15 billion yuan. At present, in the high-end wine market, Mao Wulu accounts for ninety percent of the share, which has become an indisputable fact.
According to the data, the current market share of the three high-end brands Mao Wulu in high-end liquor is %, accounting for 94% in total, forming an oligopoly pattern. Among them, Mao ** accounts for more than 2,000 yuan of ultra-high-end ** belt, and Wulu shares 1,000 yuan ** belt with a few other high-end products.
In this context, it can be said that it is even more difficult for Shede Liquor to seize the mid-to-high-end market or even the high-end market.
According to the financial report, in 2021, the operating income of high-end liquor in Shede Liquor Industry will be 387.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8194%。In 2022, the company's operating income of mid-to-high-end liquor will be 487.7 billion yuan, and the revenue growth rate has dropped sharply to 2588%。In the first three quarters of this year, the sales revenue of high-end liquor in Shede Liquor Industry was 41500 million yuan, and the revenue growth rate has further dropped to 1062%。
It can be seen with the naked eye that in the mid-to-high-end market, Shede Liquor is falling downward at the same high speed after experiencing an extremely fast sprint upward.
Low-grade wine "can't hold up".
It seems to realize that the road to high-end is difficult, and Shede Liquor has also begun to "roll" ordinary wine. In the first three quarters of this year, the sales revenue of ordinary liquor in Shede Liquor Industry was 69.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2294%。This performance growth rate is more than twice that of mid-to-high-end wines.
However, the development strategy of Shede Liquor for mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor does not seem to be very clear. In 2022, the output of ordinary liquor in Shede Liquor Industry will be 2580,000 kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 84%；Sales volume was 2640,000 kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 411%。The main representative brand of ordinary liquor in Shede Liquor Industry is Tuopai Daqu. Even in 2022, when production and sales are showing a downward trend, the operating income of ordinary liquor of Shede Liquor will increase by 10% year-on-year92%。
At the high point of Shede Liquor's performance, in 2021, the company's operating income of low-grade liquor increased by 218 year-on-year66%, more than 8194%。
So, can ordinary wine become the "magic weapon" for Shede Liquor to break through?
Judging from the current fundamentals, it seems that it is still difficult. In the first three quarters of this year, the sales revenue of Shede Liquor from mid-to-high-end liquor was 41500 million yuan. In comparison, the sales revenue of ordinary liquor is only 69.3 billion yuan, and the sales revenue of the two accounted for 8569% and 1431%。Judging from the performance contribution of the two, the performance of Shede Liquor Industry still properly relies on medium and high-end liquor.
It is difficult for the high-end to break through, and the low-end cannot support it, and Shede Liquor is also facing various challenges that come with it. First and foremost is the change in dealers.
In the first three quarters of this year, there were 610 new distributors of Shede Liquor's liquor products, 215 distributors withdrew, and a total of 2,553 distributors at the end of the reporting period, an increase of 395 from the end of 2022.
In 2022, there will be 135 new distributors in Shede Liquor Province, a decrease of 279;The number of dealers outside the province increased by 661, a decrease of 611. In 2022, Shede Liquor will have a total of 796 new distributors, a decrease of 890.
Distributors are one of the most important contributors to the performance of liquor companies. Behind the large fluctuations of dealers, it often means that the performance of enterprises may change accordingly. The data shows that in the first three quarters of this year, the sales revenue of Shede Liquor from wholesale ** was 454.5 billion yuan, and the income from the company's e-commerce sales is only 29.8 billion yuan, and the revenue of the two accounted for 9384% and 616%。
And the main reason for dealers to "choose to leave" may be that they can't make money. According to a report, if you do not calculate the influence of factors such as the manufacturer's year-end rebate, 70% of the dealers have operated the terminal profit of the famous wine single product is almost "zero", only 20% of the dealers feedback "slightly profit", and the remaining 10% of the dealers said that they are selling at a loss. In the "unprofitable" survival dilemma, some dealers can only seek other ways out. It is reported that a large-scale distributor in Guangdong has almost given up all the rights of famous liquor since this year, and turned to a national transfer operation.
At present, the leading effect of the industry is becoming more and more obvious, coupled with the environment of consumption structure adjustment, it is still difficult for Shede Liquor to seize the mid-to-high-end market with Mao Wulu. In this context, the resources brought by the Fosun system can only be "temporary thirst quenching". If you want to reproduce the rapid growth of performance, you also need to study the future development direction.
Author丨Zhang Yu.
*丨Exploration Finance (ID: teccj6).