Author Avocado under the stars.
Edit Spinach's Starry Sky.
Typography Ice cream under the stars.
Recently, the "dragon generation" in the a** field welcomed the wealth of the sky, and seemed to have risen collectively to welcome the arrival of the Year of the Dragon in 2024. Among them,Leading shares(600630) is particularly eye-catching. I have to say, the name is well-named, ** really no trouble.
*: Oriental Fortune Official Website - Leading Shares (as of December 21, 2023).
The data shows that since December 18, leading shares have appeared3 pcsTrading. In terms of market capitalization, since December, the market value has risen as highLong (Nov 30 market capitalization: 33.)3.9 billion;December 21: 555.7 billion). From this point of view, the performance of leading shares can be described as "the dragon of dragons".
But to clear the fog, from the performance point of view, is the leading share a real dragon or a fake dragon?
First, the status is high, and the business is down
Backed by the Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, the status of the leading shares, needless to say. But looking at the business, it is difficult to say.
From the perspective of business, the leading shares are mainly engaged in brand management and international **. Specific products include: knitted products, home textiles and apparel products. From this point of view, they are all sold as daily consumer goods. It stands to reason that although the economy is weak, the business of leading shares will not be too bad. After all, no matter how bad the economy is, you have to live as usual, right?
However, this is not the case.
Since 2019, the revenue of leading shares has been declining. From 2019 to 2022, in just three years, the scale of revenue has shrunk by nearly onceHalf(2018: 4.4 billion;2022: 2.1 billion). In the first three quarters of 2023, the year-on-year decline will be more than that
Why?The roots lie inBrand competitivenesswithSales channels
*: Straight Flush iFind – Gross Operating Income.
If a product can be sold, it must be thereRequirements。The buying and selling of leading shares solves the most basic needs of human beings, "clothing, food, housing and transportation", and the demand is undoubted. Secondly, among the many products, why don't you buy him?It depends on the competitiveness of the product and the brand.
At present, Longtou shares have its own brands such as Sangun and Chrysanthemum, as well as authorized brands (authorized sales). In the third quarter of 2023, the revenue of private label brands was about that of licensed brandstimes (private label: 56,250,000;Authorized brands: 21.15 million yuan), mainly private brands. However, whether compared with the industry average or median, the revenue decline of leading shares is far ahead. It can be seen that the brand competitiveness is at the bottom of the industry.
*: Straight Flush - Peer Comparison - Comparison of Financial Data for the First Three Quarters of 2023 (SFC Industry Classification - Textile Industry).
And then there's the sales channel.
Although, the company has a layout on and offline, but nearSeventy percentIt is also an offline channel such as direct sales and franchise. In today's situation, shopping malls have closed down one after another, and offline stores are naturally having a hard time. As of the end of September 2023, the number of leading stock stores was 1,235, a decrease of about 50 from the end of 2022.
*: Company Announcement - Key Operating Data for the Third Quarter of 2023 (October 28, 2023).
Declining brand competitiveness, as well as heavy dependenceOfflineIt is not surprising that business is so.
Second, large-scale marketing, devouring gross profits
Although the business is declining, the gross profit margin is still strong. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company's gross profit margin was about:。Although the brand competitiveness has declined, the emaciated camel is still bigger than the horse.
However, the gross profit margin of 31% and the net profit margin areBehind it is a large amount of marketing expenses.
In the long run, high marketing spending is the norm for leading stocks, and it is even getting higher and higher. In the first three quarters of 2023, the proportion of sales expenses (= sales expenses and operating income) is as high。The devouring of gross profit by the high sales expenses of leading shares can be seen.
*: Straight Flush iFind - Percentage of selling expenses.
So, where did all the money go?
According to the semi-annual report, the largest part of the sales expenses is the staff salary, service fee and decoration fee. It seems that the source of the disaster is still the sales model based on offline stores. Whether it is store decoration or personnel marketing, not to mention the time-consuming, laborious and costly, the key is also contrary to the development trend of the times. The money has been spent, but the revenue has not yet risen, which is a bit self-directed and self-acting.
*: 2023 semi-annual report of leading shares.
It seems that money can only make a splash if it is spent in the right place.
Third, can the foreign trade policy be really good?
At this point, the leading shares are real dragons and fake dragons, and everyone has their own decisions.
Another reason for this hot speculation, in addition to the general rise of the "dragon generation", is the notice issued by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on expanding the level of opening up of cross-border investment. According to the notice, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange has decided to expand the implementation of high-level opening policies for cross-border investment in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Beijing, Guangdong and Hainan.
For "based in Shanghai, rooted in East China" (in the first half of 2023, leading sharesrevenue from East China), this notice can be described as a "precision strike".
*: Straight Flush iFind – Operating income by region
So, can the policy really be a real benefit?The key is to look at the business.
Although the leading shares do have foreign trade business, they do not account for the proportion。Secondly, from the perspective of the nature of the business, it is still to export textiles overseas. At present, in the face of SHEIN and TEMU, etcCross-border e-commerceDominating the leader, how can the leading shares play with only a small part of the traditional foreign trade business?
Speaking with data, the declining foreign trade business is the best answer.
*: Straight Flush iFind – Operating income by industry
In addition, the international situation is unpredictable, and it may be difficult to "really benefit".
It is undeniable that as a member of the "dragon generation", the status and influence of leading shares should not be underestimated. But high status is not high, after all, heroes never ask where they come from. The high stock price is not really high, in business, high and low, but also depends on the performance.
Note: This article does not constitute any investment advice. **There are risks, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. There is no harm in buying and selling.