1. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in February 2024 has increased to 165%, an inversion of Treasury yields means a cut in interest rates as soon as possible.
Fed Watch believes that the Fed will maintain the interest rate range at 525% to 5The probability of a 5% unchanged is 835%, with a 16 chance of a 25 basis point rate cut5%。The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by March 2023 is 117%, with a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points of 741%, and a 50 basis point rate cut is 142%。In other words, the Fed will most likely announce a rate cut between February and March 2024. This comes months ahead of the previous Fed's rate cuts in the second half of 2024.
3-month and 10-year** bonds have been reversed over the past 13 months. The reversal in U.S. Treasury yields, the father of the U.S. Treasury yield curve** and a professor at Duke University, said that this is a sign that the economy is in recession and that the Fed should act quickly to start cutting interest rates.
Second, the registration system to rescue the Shenzhen Stock Exchange: to promote the deepening and solidification of the first issuance registration system.
Since the registration system has been introduced as a national policy, it must be consistently followed, first created and then abolished. Problems must be corrected and corrected in a timely manner. Therefore, for investors, it is an important task for the Shenzhen Stock Exchange to severely punish the registration system and strengthen the legitimacy of the IPO process in the future.
Third, at the beginning of the new year, the market finally stabilized and rebounded, leaving hope for a good start next year.
All in all, we are in the transition phase before the inflection point of the spring market. Recently, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank held a regular meeting for the fourth quarter of 2023. The meeting proposed that it is necessary to strengthen the implementation of the monetary policy that has been introduced. In addition, banks were more active in lending at the beginning of the year, and there is a high probability that there will be a slight improvement in credit volume in January, and market liquidity will be better at the beginning of the year than at the end of the year. year.
In addition, the Fed is expected to move in a stronger direction next year, and the current strengthening of the yuan has also become a reality, with the end of the remote Christmas holiday, there is some certainty about the recovery of foreign capital.
Fourth, the optimistic direction of the spring market.
1. From the perspective of rebound, the weight of new energy is only a platform. What really soared was the small flag, which was very weak to fight or come back like this. The small flag that has been lurking for a while is now hesitant to break the ......Well, at least there is one more chance to keep the capital, what else can be said?It shows that capital confidence is still insufficient, the overall trend is unsustainable, and the market is still flat. Next spring, due to the financial impact, the growth at the beginning of the year was maintained, and the structural market was very good. It is necessary to choose the right direction, which is a structural possibility.
2. What should we focus on?The opportunity for real estate stocks lies in small stocks of state-owned assets. Breakthroughs in new energy solar technologies are likely to recover during periods of declining interest rates, rising utility rates, and rising inflation. Non-ferrous metal water plants are not included. There shouldn't be much opportunity for roads, new infrastructure for AI computing examples, data centers, supercomputer networks, and other things, including the consumer industry.