The recent international situation is not optimistic, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict have not subsided, and there is also ominous news from South America, and it seems that a new war is about to break out. According to a comprehensive report by Spain's "El País" and CNN, Maduro recently sent troops to the border with Guyana and is ready to make claims to the relevant areas. In this regard, many people may be confused and do not understand the relationship between the Ethiopian region and Venezuela, and why Venezuela** is taking such a tough attitude. This question involves a complex historical context, which I will try to explain in a concise manner. Venezuela and Guyana are two South American countries with long-standing territorial disputes, with the ownership of the Essequibo region being the focus of the dispute between the two sides. Historically, the Essequibo region originally belonged to Venezuela, but more than a hundred years ago, the region was awarded to the United Kingdom, which was then the colonial overlord of Guyana.
Despite the results of such arbitrations, successive Venezuela** have always refused to admit it, claiming that this is a collusion between Europe and the United States to deceive Venezuelan land, and has always insisted on making claims to the Essequibo region. Subsequently, Guyana declared independence from British colonial rule, and the Essequibo region was naturally controlled by independent Guyana. Many countries consider the Ethiopia region to be Guyana's territory, but Venezuela still insists on its sovereignty over the region, and even United Nations mediation has failed to resolve the dispute. However, territorial disputes are not the only problem. In 2015, a group of oil conglomerates discovered a large number of oil fields in the Essequibo region, with a total reserve of more than 11 billion barrels. This complicates the scramble for the Essequibo region, which is rich in oil resources and can become the focus of international political struggles. Guyana's oil production has surpassed that of neighboring Venezuela in just a few years, and the poor country's GDP per capita has grown nearly fourfold in a country of about 800,000 people.
This huge benefit is enough to make the Venezuelans next to it covet. In the eyes of Venezuelans, the Essequibo region is theirs, and they cannot tolerate Guyana's reliance on this Venezuelan resource. This contradiction is destined to only get deeper. It is worth noting that a recent referendum on whether or not to agree to the reconquest of the Essequibo region in Venezuela** showed that some 10.4 million citizens supported the state's claim to the territory. Judging by public opinion, this provides a basis for Venezuela to start a war. In addition, Maduro has sent troops to the border, suggesting that the territorial dispute is likely to turn into war. Guyana is clearly at a disadvantage in this potential war, as the small country has a population of about 800,000 and an army of only 4,000. However, it is not always simple, as Guyana has US troops in the territory and Brazil is also opposed to Venezuela's forcible annexation, deploying troops on the border to be ready to respond to military operations in Venezuela.
That's why Maduro in Venezuela hasn't taken action yet, because the reactions of all parties need to be carefully considered. Currently, Venezuela is facing severe inflation and economic difficulties. With next year** just around the corner, if the election goes against Maduro, he could stabilize the political situation and boost his approval ratings by retaking the Essequibo region. The United States and Brazil are the main obstacles to Venezuela's recovery of the region. If the United States supports Guyana and intervenes militarily when Venezuela sends troops, Venezuela's actions could be frustrated. As a result, Maduro may choose to wait for the U.S. to be distracted by other regional conflicts. If the situation in South America cannot be eased, the two countries may eventually go to war. This could be an opportunity for China, which has always seen South America as an important interest, but may be inclined to work with China because of the global turmoil that makes it difficult for the United States to deal with everything.
In this case, China may gain more benefits and development opportunities, and at the same time can seek the return of Taiwan, leaving the United States in a situation of siege. Specific strategies can be adjusted according to changing situations to ensure that China has the initiative.