After this round of global harvest by the Federal Reserve, the yuan will make the United States tremble ...... next year
The countdown to 2023 has begun, and as the final whistle is about to blow, our RMB scored a goal at this critical moment, earning an important one point, and also making a good start to the new competition in 2024.
According to the China ** Daily, on December 28, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar continued to be strong, and the onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose above 7 intradayAt the important threshold of 10 yuan, the intraday exchange rate of the offshore yuan against the US dollar rose by more than 400 basis points.
Throughout December, the appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar was very obvious, and as of the reporting date, the exchange rate of the onshore yuan against the US dollar had increased by 05%, the offshore yuan rose by more than 0 against the US dollar3%。We have reason to give an optimistic forecast that the RMB exchange rate will re-rise above the historical mark of 7 yuan in 2024 and stabilize at 6Ranges range of 8-7.
The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China recently held its regular meeting for the fourth quarter, at which it was clearly stated that it is necessary to resolutely guard against the risk of exchange rate overshoot and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. The endorsement of the central bank has undoubtedly provided a "booster" for the stability of the value of the renminbi, and the recent performance of the renminbi also reflects from the side that we have withstood the harvest from the United States.
Under pressure and the Fed to do it.
It is an objective fact that the Fed raises interest rates to harvest the world, and no matter whether the Fed top management has this subjective motive or not, it cannot change this objective fact. In principle, the Fed's interest rate hike will improve the level of return on risk-free assets in the United States, and under the downward pressure of the global economy, global capital will tend to allocate more US dollar assets, which will accelerate the transfer of funds from various countries to the United States.
The rate hike that began in March last year is the largest rate hike in the United States in 40 years, and the current federal benchmark interest rate has reached 525%-5.5%, which is an all-time high for a period.
In order to avoid being harvested by the Fed, major countries have followed the Fed and started raising interest rates. But China is the only exception, and we are under tremendous pressure from the depreciation of the renminbi to adopt the exact opposite monetary policy to the US Federal Reserve in order to protect our economic fundamentals.
From March 2022 to now, we were surprised to find that our LPR rate has not only not risen, but has been falling, with the 1-year LPR rate going from 370% to 345% and 5 years or more LPR rates from 46% to 42%。
Of course, in the process, we have seen the renminbi bear huge depreciation pressure, but such a price is worth paying, after all, our loose monetary policy has effectively stabilized our macro economy and stimulated China's exports during this time.
Now that the Fed's interest rate hike seems to have reached the "ceiling", if it continues, many banks in the United States will not be able to bear it first, and the market has begun to ** the Fed's first interest rate cut, in the opinion of many analysts, the Fed's monetary policy will undergo a fundamental change in 2024.
It is under the influence of this expectation that the downward trend of the US dollar index has begun to become more and more significant, and the RMB that has experienced a "cold winter" is ushering in a warm spring!But this may be chilling news for the United States, why do you say that?
The yuan made the dollar tremble.
There is an important thing in the financial market called anticipation, when people generally have an expectation, they will act before it happens, and the expectation makes the financial market unpredictable and makes the financial market more exciting.
Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut have already begun, which means that a downward trend in the dollar index may be inevitable next year. As an alternative to the US dollar, the renminbi will be sought after by more international capital, which is a sight that the White House and the United States absolutely do not want to see.
According to the latest statistics from SWIFT, the renminbi has beaten the yen to become the fourth largest international payment and settlement currency. If the exchange rate of the renminbi continues to pick up next year, then the pound, which ranks third, will be the first to tremble.
The success of the internationalization of the renminbi is definitely an area that the United States is afraid of, and if the renminbi is really made to become the world's main settlement currency, the hegemony of the dollar will completely decline.
What's more critical is that after so many years, the Federal Reserve has been frantically running the money printing machine to print money, and the dollars scattered around the world will flow back to the United States in a short period of time, and the huge inflation tsunami will directly submerge the US economy. Such a terrible scenario is a nightmare that American politicians do not want to see in any case, so the encirclement and interception of the renminbi is a strategy they must adhere to.
Let him show his teeth and claws, and I will not move like a mountain!China is the world's largest surplus country, and as long as this basic plate is still there, the RMB internationalization strategy is destined not to be easily stifled. Moreover, the renminbi has made a good start for next year, and it has also made China's economy very promising next year.
China's economy in 2024 is more promising.
Macroeconomic policy consists of two parts: fiscal policy and monetary policyIn the different cycles of the national economy, the adoption of appropriate fiscal and monetary policies to regulate them can promote the circulation of conscience and positive development of the national economy.
The appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar will free up greater monetary policy freedom for our central bank, and without the problem of the RMB exchange rate, the central bank can bet more chips on the implementation of loose monetary policy, thereby enhancing the stimulating effect of monetary policy on the macroeconomy.
The same is true for fiscal policy, next year can play a greater role in regulating the economy, further increase expenditure, and drive the vitality of consumption and investment in the whole society with expanding expenditure. As long as the exchange rate of the renminbi remains stable, there will be fewer inflation concerns and fiscal policy will be implemented more effectively.
These two macroeconomic "escort artifacts" will be loosened to a certain extent next year, and it is foreseeable that next year's Chinese economy will be a promising year!
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