(Information**: Zhuochuang Information).
In November, after the onset of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, temperatures were generally lower, economic activity weakened, and demand fell. The petrochemical industry, which represents the demand side, saw a significant decline in the growth rate of the fuel processing industry and the manufacturing industry of rubber, plastics and other polymer products. Due to the impact of the surplus of chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry, the prosperity index is lagging behind, and the month-on-month growth rate remains positive under inertia, but the growth rate is falling rapidly.
Since late October, the international industry has gradually declined, the cost support of the petrochemical industry has gradually weakened, and in November, in the case of weak supply and demand, the cost profit margin has fallen, and the production heat of the industry has declined. However, from the perspective of year-on-year growth rate, the inventory turnover rate has not changed much compared with October, and the demand is in line with the seasonal pattern, and after excluding seasonal factors, the demand is slightly better than the same period last year.
On the whole, the market confidence of the petrochemical industry is weak, and enterprises remain cautious about the month-on-month decline in inventory turnover in the off-season, and have a strong willingness to adjust production and reduce burden.
[Prosperity data].
Global inflation has cooled significantly. In October, the Eurozone CPI fell to 42%, and the US CPI fell to 32%, China's CPI fell 02%, global inflation data was generally lower than expected. Compared with CPI, the growth rate of PPI has fallen more, and the manufacturing industry that has lost its support is generally sluggish. In the third quarter, Eurozone GDP fell by 01%, the UK's GDP growth rate was 0% month-on-month, and Japan's GDP growth rate fell 2% month-on-month1%；U.S. GDP estimates for the fourth quarter have been sharply lowered. In its economic outlook, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) expects global GDP growth to grow from 2.2 in 20239% to 27%。According to the OECD, major economies are generally facing sustainable debt pressures, and while the risk of a hard landing has decreased, the risk of a recession has not disappeared.
Global inflation cooled significantly in October, and the decline was generally greater than expected. In October, the preliminary CPI of the eurozone increased from 4 in September3% slowed sharply to 29%, the lowest level in recent years. China's October CPI fell 02%, down 02 percentage points;PPI decreased by 9 year-on-year4%, declining for 6 consecutive months. In October, the U.S. CPI was **3 year-on-year2%, down 05 percentage points;The year-on-year growth rate of PPI was 13%, down 09 percentage points.
From a macroeconomic perspective, the larger-than-expected decline in inflation is a manifestation of the lag in the effectiveness of tightening monetary policy affecting economic activity. As the northern hemisphere enters winter, the gradual reduction in production activity will increase the pressure on the economic slowdown and the expectation of a market recession. In November, the global manufacturing industry generally contracted in a state of contraction, and it can be seen from the PMI indicator that the manufacturing industry entered the contraction range (the value was below 50): 437. United States 494. China 494。
Under the dual pressure of cooling global inflation and slowing production, market confidence is low and the risk of recession is rising, which will exacerbate the risk of commodities***. The ** of bulk commodities will lead to an increase in the willingness of the supply side to destock, and the market is easy to form a spiral of "** decline - active destocking" and enter the bottom-finding state. The market still needs to rely on the cost side to get out of the bottom-finding state. The sluggish demand in the manufacturing industry has led to a short-term marginal surplus of energy, and whether the OPEC+ production cut agreement can be effectively implemented has become the key to maintaining a tight balance between energy supply and demand, and it is also necessary to pay attention to the possibility of energy tension caused by extreme weather. At the end of January 2024, there are still large opportunities for energy, and the market needs to deal with the risk of two-way fluctuations in energy.
In November, affected by the off-season, the prosperity of the petroleum and chemical industry peaked and fell, and the overall situation was in the normal range. The sharp fluctuation of the cost side has increased the difficulty of enterprises in regulating production, and the two-way sharp fluctuation of energy will continue for a period of time. The global economic slowdown and cooling inflation have led to greater pressure on the industry at the end of the year than in previous years, which may continue until January 2024, but from February 2024, global central banks may enter a cycle of interest rate cuts, and market confidence will gradually improve. To sum up, in December, the prosperity of the petroleum and chemical industry will continue to decline, and the prosperity index may still fall to the cold range.